Bay of Bengal System May Reach Arabian Sea

SEPTEMBER  21, 2016, WEDNESDAY

A low pressure system has formed in the Bay of Bengal and is skipping around the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Now this circulation looks little  and ordinary at present but various foreçast models think highly of it. They think it is a "Lambe race ka ghoda"

A guy with dum, stamina and lot of staying power.

The GFS model thinks it might reach Iran by October 3!

This system is going to move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and reach the Arabian  Sea around September 28, 2016.

Then it might intensify into a depression and move west towards the gulf of Oman.

It is not confirmed but  it might even turn into a tropical cyclone. But nothing is certain. The Madden Julian Oscillation is in the West Pacific hence it will not help this system. Whatever it does it will have to with its inherent "dum".

We have to wait and see how things happen. But Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and even coastal Saurashtra might receive drenching rains in the coming days.

UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 23, 2016, FRIDAY

The news is disappointing. The Bay of Bengal low pressure system will reach Maharashtra around September 30, 2016, and weaken. There will be rains in Mumbai, Konkan, Maharashtra around that time. There might be some showers in Saurashtra as the dying system might reach the region.

Another low pressure system will form in the Bay of Bengal in early October but it will move to Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh before dissipating. 

This has been the usual story of the weak monsoon this year. An impotent Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea ejaculating weak storm cyclonic circulations which do not last. An absolute lack of depressions or tropical cyclones.

Unlike the Pacific Ocean which is spewing storms after storms and scaring the hell out of Taiwan. As we speak, another storm MEGI is intensifying as Taiwan shivers in anticipation.

 

Arabian Sea Depression: Heavy Rains In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

JUNE 1, 2016

A deep depression is likely to form in the Arabian Sea around June 9, 2016, which will bring a deluge to coastal Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Gujarat.

Monsoon will become very active on the Arabian Sea coast of India from June 6. Increased rainfall will be seen in Karnataka and southern Maharashtra from June 6.

Mumbai will receive very heavy rains on June 8-9.

This will culminate in the formation of a tropical depression on June 9 off the Mumbai coast south of Saurashtra.

This system is expected to move into Saurashtra and Kutch regions bringing flooding rains till June 12-13. Coastal Sindh too might receive considerable precipitation.

The system may then swing back into the Arabian Sea, weaken and drift towards Oman. Oman may receive isolated showers by June 16.

The vigorous monsoon activity in the coming fortnight may bring phenomenal amounts of rain on India 's west coast. The forecast map indicates these areas will get accumulated rains of 25 inches in the coming 15 days.

Arabian Sea depression dissipating fast

Update: October 13, 2015

The Arabian Sea low pressure system is now moving towards northern Oman. But it will dissipate mid sea on October 15 near the coast.

Some rainfall is expected in northern Oman on October 15-16 as a result. There might be some showers in Muscat and Sur. 

UAE will remain dry.

Latest satellite image of Arabian Sea low pressure area

Rain forecast showing total precipitation till October 18. The purple and light blue colours denote heaviest rainfall

Update: October 12, 2015

Arabian Sea system 3A is a low pressure area now.

It will now move WNW in the next 2 days towards Oman and dissipate totally at sea on October 15. It might bring cloudy weather or a drizzle in some areas of northern Oman and Saurashtra. Balochistan may receive light showers because of a western disturbance and not 3A.

Update: October 11, 2015, 1130 hours GMT

Arabian Sea depression is dissipating fast.

It will weaken into a low pressure area by tomorrow. It will dissipate  completely by October 15. Its remains may drift on and bring light showers or just cloudy weather in northern Oman and coastal Balochistan by October 17.

Update: October 11, 2015, 0430 hours GMT

Arabian Sea depression unlikely to turn into a cyclone.

The JTWC says it is not going to intensify much. The system will move north till tomorrow and after that swing away towards Oman reaching the coast near Sur on October 15. It is expected that the depression will start weakening as it changes direction. Some forecast models expect to dissipate on October 13.

Some rainfall is expected in coastal Oman on Thursday. The JTWC expects some rains around Masirah. We think it may extend from Sur to Masirah coastal areas.

It is very likely that the system will dissipate completely mid sea on October 14 without bringing any rains to Oman.

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Latest (0900 hours GMT, October 10) JTWC bulletin believes the Arabian Sea storm may move to central Oman.

This system seems to be proving major forecast models wrong. It is proving the GFS and European models wrong.

Surprisingly the US Navy's NAVGEM and Japanese models are being proved right.

The JTWC seems to be giving the most accurate information.

We will keep you informed.

Gujarat and Sindh are not targets. We repeat. Gujarat and Sindh will not be affected.

The storm is likely to dissipate near central coastal Oman between Duqm and Al Khahil. One can expect very heavy rains in these areas starting October 15. This forecast is not to be taken as final. The system may head to any part of the Oman coast.

Bay of Bengal Low Will Move To Arabian Sea September 18, 2015

The Indian monsoon is withdrawing but storm activity has begun in the Bay of
Bengal with a low pressure area forming. This system is going to hover around near the Andhra coast for the next 5 days bringing rains to peninsular India especially in Odisha, Andhra, Telangana and northern Karnataka.

The low will then traverse west through India and hop into the Arabian Sea on September 18, 2015. Increased rainfall is expected in Konkan coast by then.

The low in the Arabian Sea may intensify into a depression and will move close by the coast of Saurashtra till September 24.

After that it will swing back into the open sea and move to northeastern coast of Oman. It will be gradually weakening all that time so Oman may expect some showers by September 27.

The European Model too supports increased storm activity near the Konkan coast around September 18-20, but it is not as hopeful as the GFS that the system will intensify much.

The European model envisages another Bay of Bengal low/depression moving through Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar and onto Uttar Pradesh around September 22, but the GFS stays mum on the forecast.

So we see different forecasts by two computer models.

The point they agree upon is... A Bay of Bengal low pressure moving west reaching Arabian Sea around September 19, 2015. The rest is differing predictions.

Monitor North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) LIVE

Rain-Maker Depression To Deluge Andhra, Maharashtra, Mumbai By September 20, 2015

We had predicted a low pressure/depression in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea almost a week ago. The system will form on September 14, 2015 near the Andhra coast.

The Bay of Bengal is already showing increased storm activity in preparation of the birth of the rain maker weather system.

The low pressure area will form off the eastern coast of India near Andhra Pradesh and hover around for the next two days till September 18 bringing heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh.

It will then cross the coast and move through Andhra, Telangana, Northern Karnataka, Maharashtra onto Mumbai.

Very heavy rains are expected in Mumbai on September 20.

The low pressure area will then intensify again in the warm waters of the Arabian Sea into a depression/deep depression (Forecasts rule out a tropical cyclone presently, but 10 days is a long long time in weather forecasting. Anything can happen).

The depression is expected to move along the Saurashtra coast into the open sea and reach the coast of central Oman on September 23, 2015. Though the European model believes it will move into Gujarat on September 20. We have to wait awhile before the picture becomes clearer.

In a nutshell the low pressure area is going to bring very heavy rains to Andhra to Mumbai from September 14.

 A SECOND DEPRESSION IN THE BAY OF BENGAL?

A forecast model predicts a depression moving into Odisha on September 21, 2015, but this is yet to be confirmed by other models. It appears that the present low pressure area in the South China Sea is going to do a lot of travelling over Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar and then hop over into the Bay of Bengal on September 19. This will then gain strength and become a deep depression and hit Odisha as we have said earlier. Chances are this predicted system has the makings of another tropical cyclone. As there are  10 more days to go and forecasts have the habit of changing in these many days.

The European Model predicts this low in the South China Sea will hit Odisha on September 21, 2015

Cyclone CHAPALA to from off Konkan coast on September 20, 2015?

Monitor Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea LIVE

The depression as seen on September 21, 2015, moving away from the Indian coast off Mumbai.

Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea To Come Alive With Storms In Coming Days

As a tepid monsoon begins withdrawing from South Asia the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) is going to change gears and throw out low pressure areas, depression and may be even a tropical cyclone in the coming days by September 20, 2015.

It will begin with the Bay of Bengal mothering two low pressure areas soon. The first one will be engendered around September 12, 2015. Opinions differ as to its fate. It may start off near the Myanmar coast then potter around and come near the Indian coast bringing good rains in Andhra, Odisha and Tamil Nadu and finally fizzle out in a week.

Or it may form off the Andhra coast and then intensify into a big rain-making deep depression on September 14 and move inland and move through Madhya Pradesh and reach even Gujarat.

The Bay of Bengal is expected to generate another low pressure area on September 19, 2015 which will move into northern and eastern states of India.

The Arabian Sea is the one which may throw out a tropical cyclone (Chapala) or a deep depression. It will start off as a low pressure area near the Goa coast on September 18 and then intensify into a tropical cyclone by September 20, 2015. Where it heads to remains to be seen. Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman?

We have wait for confirmation of this upcoming cyclone by the European model. The American GFS model has been gung-ho about it since last 4-5 forecasts.

TRACK THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN LIVE

The situation as forecast by the GFS on September 23, 2015. The Arabian Sea cyclone/depression seems to be moving towards Oman.

Arabian Sea depression to hit South Gujarat at Surat

Update: June 23, 2015, 1030 hours GMT

The European model has said depression 97A will move in a north easterly direction in the next 24 hours. Coastal Amreli district then onto South Gujarat.

The GFS in its latest data issued at 0600 GMT predicts a more northerly movement during next 24 hours. Right through Saurashtra on to north and central Gujarat.

Who will win?
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IMD confirms 97A will move through Diu, Amreli district and move to South Gujarat.

The Arabian Sea Deep Depression will make landfall at Diu and then move through coastal Amreli and Bhavnagar districts to South Gujarat at Surat in the next 24 hours.

YESTERDAY’S  DEPRESSION  OVER  NORTHEAST  AND  ADJOINING  EASTCENTRAL  ARABIAN  SEA MOVED  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS,  INTENSIFIED  INTO  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  AND  LAY CENTRED  AT  0300  UTC  OF  TODAY,  THE  23RD  JUNE  2015,  OVER  NORTHEAST  ARABIAN  SEA  OFF SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  LATITUDE  20.5°NORTH  AND  LONGITUDE  70.5°EAST,  ABOUT  50 KM  WEST-SOUTHWEST  OF  DIU.    IT  WOULD  MOVE  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS  AND  CROSS SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  DIU  AS  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  BY  TODAY,  THE    23RD  JUNE  2015 AFTERNOON  .   ACCORDING  TO  LATEST  SATELLITE  IMAGERY,  INTENSITY  OF  THE  SYSTEM  IS  T  2.0.  THE CONVECTIVE  CLOUD  MASS  IS  SHEARED  TO  THE  WEST  OF  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  LOWEST CLOUD TOP  TEMPERATURE  IS  -88.0°C.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN  LOW  AND  MEDIUM  CLOUDS  WITH EMBEDDED  INTENSE  TO  VERY  INTENSE  CONVECTION  OVER  ARABIAN  SEA  NORTH  OF LATITUDE  14.0°NORTH  TO  22.0°NORTH  AND  EAST  OF  LONGITUDE  62.0°EAST.  THE  ESTIMATED CENTRAL  PRESSURE  IS  989  HPA.  MAXIMUM  SURFACE  WIND  SPEED  IS  ABOUT  30  KNOTS GUSTING  TO  40  KNOTS  AROUND  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  SEA  CONDITION  IS  VERY  ROUGH AROUND THE  SYSTEM CENTRE  AND ALONG  AND  OFF  GUJARAT  COAST. 

DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, HIT SAURASHTRA TONIGHT

The latest GFS forecast data that is coming in says Arabian Sea deep depression 97A may rapidly intensify in the coming 12 hours, perhaps into a tropical cyclone and hit the Saurashtra Coast at Veraval today midnight. That is 0000 hours IST, June 23, 2015, Tuesday.

It is possible that wind speeds at impact will be 70-80 km/h, gusts upto 90 km/h.

The gale will be accompanied by torrential rains.

The deep depression/cyclone will swing North after making landfall and move into Kutch.

The most affected districts will be Gir Somnath, Porbandar, Junagadh, Rajkot, Morbi, and Kutch.

One wonders if the authorities are taking this possible threat seriously. The worry is if the GFS forecast turns true, there are just 14 hours before impact.

We are constantly monitoring what various computer forecasts models are saying and also the latest IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) updates.

Please keep in touch for breaking forecasts.

Arabian Sea Storm Intensity Forecast from Cyclocane. Only one model says it will not turn into a tropical storm.

Cyclone tracking site cyclocane.com says Arabian Sea depression 97A will be a tropical cyclone

Arabian Sea Deep Depression (Or Cyclone?) To Hit Kutch Early June 24, 2015

Weather update South Asia: June 22, 2015.

The low pressure area in the Arabian Sea has organised into a depression. At 0000 hours GMT it lay 275 kilometers WSW of Veraval, Gujarat. The southern quadrant of the system is throwing winds of 85 km/h. The Eumetsat MPE image was taken at 0400 hours GMT today. The red color denotes heavy rainfall. The system will now move towards the Gujarat coast. Rainfall activity will pick up from tomorrow itself in the region.

RAINFALL SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0400 GMT TODAY, JUNE 22, 2015

Depression 97A is expected to enter the coast of Kutch at Lakhpat on the morning of June 24, 2015, Wednesday. The system is expected to intensify into a deep depression as it moves to the Gujarat coast.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Kutch, Saurashtra and southern Sindh from late Tuesday evening. The rains will extend to north Gujarat and western Rajasthan by Friday.

Winds of 40-50 km/h, gusts up to 60 km/h, will lash the areas from Tuesday night (local time). In short, wind speeds just short of a tropical cyclone.

We have a suspicion that the system may intensify into a cyclone by landfall. The GFS forecast shows the expected central minimum pressure at landfall on early Wednesday morning to be 987 Mb. Now according to the Dvorak scale that equals a category 1 hurricane. That is wind speeds of 120 km/h. See the link for details .......https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

We expect that 97A may intensify into a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. That is Tuesday morning. June 23, 2015.

97A SEEMS TO BE A CYCLONE IN THE MAKING 

 Our estimate is the depression is 300 kilometers southwest of Veraval in Saurashtra-Kutch. The southern quadrant of the system is the windiest. 85 km/h. The other quadrants have winds ranging from 40-65 km/h. We think this is already a tropical cyclone. The rest is nitpicking on technicalities. Latest data by GFS rules out the possibility of a big tropical cyclone. Technically it may be called a deep depression but analysing the latest GFS forecast we see 70-80 km/h winds hitting Kutch on Wednesday. That is a cyclone by any definition.
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Latest update: June 22, 2015, 1600 hours GMT

DEEP DEPRESSION 97A TO HIT SAURASHTRA TUESDAY NIGHT

The present depression 97A in the Arabian Sea will hit the Saurashtra coast between Dwarka and Porbandar on late evening tomorrow that is on June 23, 2015, Tuesday.

It will move through Kutch and then move onto Rajasthan and then Delhi. 

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Saurashtra and Kutch in the next 72 hours starting tomorrow afternoon. There may be showers in Sindh on Wednesday.

The rains in Saurashtra and Kutch will be accompanied by strong winds of 50-60 km/h till Thursday.

This forecast is based on NCEP GFS latest data issued just now.
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Meanwhile the European forecast model  in its latest forecast  today June 22, 2015, 1200 hours GMT data, says 97A is already a tropical storm with a central pressure of 982 Mb. Quite a storm.

It predicts the storm will move straight east, touch southern Saurashtra at Diu in the next 24 hours and hit South Gujarat near Vapi-Valsad on Wednesday evening.

NOAA WATER VAPOR IMAGE OF ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0000 HRS GMT, JUNE 22, 2015

A Big Rain Maker Low To Form In Arabian Sea Soon

After the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is going to spawn a deep depression in the next couple of days by June 21, 2015.

Perhaps this will be even a bigger system than the Bay of Bengal depression which is presently deluging Andhra Pradesh.

The low pressure area will form by Saturday near the coast of Saurashtra. After that there is some disagreements amongst the computer forecast models. So we draw out the two possible scenarios.

First scenario: The low forms tomorrow and then stays near the coast of Saurashtra region of Gujarat state for a couple of days and then makes landfall into the region on Monday.

The second scenario is the low develops near the coast of Saurashtra on Saturday, intensifies into a depression and then swing aways from the Saurashtra coast back into the sea. It takes a long walk. Goes quite near the Oman coast and then turns back and makes landfall into the Kutch-Sindh border areas on June 25, 2015.

Since the monsoons have set in the chance of the system turning into a tropical cyclone is low. But it may turn into a depression or deep depression, both of which are mean little siblings of a tropical cyclone.

So we can look forward to a lot of rain, perhaps windy, in Saurashtra, Kutch and perhaps Sindh in the coming days.

SATELLITE IMAGE (1000 HRS GMT JUNE 19, 2015) OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN