Arabian Sea depression dissipating fast

Update: October 13, 2015

The Arabian Sea low pressure system is now moving towards northern Oman. But it will dissipate mid sea on October 15 near the coast.

Some rainfall is expected in northern Oman on October 15-16 as a result. There might be some showers in Muscat and Sur. 

UAE will remain dry.

Latest satellite image of Arabian Sea low pressure area

Rain forecast showing total precipitation till October 18. The purple and light blue colours denote heaviest rainfall

Update: October 12, 2015

Arabian Sea system 3A is a low pressure area now.

It will now move WNW in the next 2 days towards Oman and dissipate totally at sea on October 15. It might bring cloudy weather or a drizzle in some areas of northern Oman and Saurashtra. Balochistan may receive light showers because of a western disturbance and not 3A.

Update: October 11, 2015, 1130 hours GMT

Arabian Sea depression is dissipating fast.

It will weaken into a low pressure area by tomorrow. It will dissipate  completely by October 15. Its remains may drift on and bring light showers or just cloudy weather in northern Oman and coastal Balochistan by October 17.

Update: October 11, 2015, 0430 hours GMT

Arabian Sea depression unlikely to turn into a cyclone.

The JTWC says it is not going to intensify much. The system will move north till tomorrow and after that swing away towards Oman reaching the coast near Sur on October 15. It is expected that the depression will start weakening as it changes direction. Some forecast models expect to dissipate on October 13.

Some rainfall is expected in coastal Oman on Thursday. The JTWC expects some rains around Masirah. We think it may extend from Sur to Masirah coastal areas.

It is very likely that the system will dissipate completely mid sea on October 14 without bringing any rains to Oman.

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Latest (0900 hours GMT, October 10) JTWC bulletin believes the Arabian Sea storm may move to central Oman.

This system seems to be proving major forecast models wrong. It is proving the GFS and European models wrong.

Surprisingly the US Navy's NAVGEM and Japanese models are being proved right.

The JTWC seems to be giving the most accurate information.

We will keep you informed.

Gujarat and Sindh are not targets. We repeat. Gujarat and Sindh will not be affected.

The storm is likely to dissipate near central coastal Oman between Duqm and Al Khahil. One can expect very heavy rains in these areas starting October 15. This forecast is not to be taken as final. The system may head to any part of the Oman coast.