Bay of Bengal System May Reach Arabian Sea

SEPTEMBER  21, 2016, WEDNESDAY

A low pressure system has formed in the Bay of Bengal and is skipping around the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Now this circulation looks little  and ordinary at present but various foreçast models think highly of it. They think it is a "Lambe race ka ghoda"

A guy with dum, stamina and lot of staying power.

The GFS model thinks it might reach Iran by October 3!

This system is going to move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and reach the Arabian  Sea around September 28, 2016.

Then it might intensify into a depression and move west towards the gulf of Oman.

It is not confirmed but  it might even turn into a tropical cyclone. But nothing is certain. The Madden Julian Oscillation is in the West Pacific hence it will not help this system. Whatever it does it will have to with its inherent "dum".

We have to wait and see how things happen. But Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and even coastal Saurashtra might receive drenching rains in the coming days.

UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 23, 2016, FRIDAY

The news is disappointing. The Bay of Bengal low pressure system will reach Maharashtra around September 30, 2016, and weaken. There will be rains in Mumbai, Konkan, Maharashtra around that time. There might be some showers in Saurashtra as the dying system might reach the region.

Another low pressure system will form in the Bay of Bengal in early October but it will move to Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh before dissipating. 

This has been the usual story of the weak monsoon this year. An impotent Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea ejaculating weak storm cyclonic circulations which do not last. An absolute lack of depressions or tropical cyclones.

Unlike the Pacific Ocean which is spewing storms after storms and scaring the hell out of Taiwan. As we speak, another storm MEGI is intensifying as Taiwan shivers in anticipation.