As a tepid monsoon begins withdrawing from South Asia the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) is going to change gears and throw out low pressure areas, depression and may be even a tropical cyclone in the coming days by September 20, 2015.
It will begin with the Bay of Bengal mothering two low pressure areas soon. The first one will be engendered around September 12, 2015. Opinions differ as to its fate. It may start off near the Myanmar coast then potter around and come near the Indian coast bringing good rains in Andhra, Odisha and Tamil Nadu and finally fizzle out in a week.
Or it may form off the Andhra coast and then intensify into a big rain-making deep depression on September 14 and move inland and move through Madhya Pradesh and reach even Gujarat.
The Bay of Bengal is expected to generate another low pressure area on September 19, 2015 which will move into northern and eastern states of India.
The Arabian Sea is the one which may throw out a tropical cyclone (Chapala) or a deep depression. It will start off as a low pressure area near the Goa coast on September 18 and then intensify into a tropical cyclone by September 20, 2015. Where it heads to remains to be seen. Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman?
We have wait for confirmation of this upcoming cyclone by the European model. The American GFS model has been gung-ho about it since last 4-5 forecasts.
TRACK THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN LIVE
It will begin with the Bay of Bengal mothering two low pressure areas soon. The first one will be engendered around September 12, 2015. Opinions differ as to its fate. It may start off near the Myanmar coast then potter around and come near the Indian coast bringing good rains in Andhra, Odisha and Tamil Nadu and finally fizzle out in a week.
Or it may form off the Andhra coast and then intensify into a big rain-making deep depression on September 14 and move inland and move through Madhya Pradesh and reach even Gujarat.
The Bay of Bengal is expected to generate another low pressure area on September 19, 2015 which will move into northern and eastern states of India.
The Arabian Sea is the one which may throw out a tropical cyclone (Chapala) or a deep depression. It will start off as a low pressure area near the Goa coast on September 18 and then intensify into a tropical cyclone by September 20, 2015. Where it heads to remains to be seen. Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman?
We have wait for confirmation of this upcoming cyclone by the European model. The American GFS model has been gung-ho about it since last 4-5 forecasts.
TRACK THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN LIVE
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| The situation as forecast by the GFS on September 23, 2015. The Arabian Sea cyclone/depression seems to be moving towards Oman. |
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