The weak monsoon of 2015 is rapidly withdrawing from India but the North Indian Ocean is likely to spawn a tropical cyclone in the coming fortnight. Cyclone Chapala may be born off the Mumbai coast in the Arabian Sea around September 20, 2015.
One notices that in a weak monsoon year the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) throws out more tropical cyclones.
This year we had Ashobaa and the deep depression in June that drenched Gujarat. The Bay of Bengal spawned a surprising cyclone Komen in the middle of the rainy season.
The birth of upcoming cyclone Chapala will occur in the Bay of Bengal. It will start off as a innocuous low pressure area on September 12, Saturday. The system will form off the Odisha coast but will bob around in the Sea and will intensify into a deep depression near the Andhra coast,
This storm will move through peninsular India and Mumbai on September 18, 2015 bringing heavy rains to the city. The depression will then move into the Arabian Sea and then intensify into a tropical cyclone Chapala. It will move past the coast of Saurashtra and head towards Oman. If latest forecasts are to be believed it will hit north-eastern Oman on September 22-23.
We prophesy all this on the basis of the predictions by the venerable GFS system. The ECMWF too agrees that a low pressure area will form in the Bay of Bengal by September 13. It expects the system to strengthen into either a deep depression or a tropical cyclone on September 16 and hit the Indian coast of Andhra-Odisha. Whether it hops over peninsular India into the Arabian Sea and metamorphose into a cyclone is to be seen.
In a nutshell, the latest forecast situation. The GFS says a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea. The European model predicts a deep depression off Andhra coast.
Keep in touch for the latest predictions.
TRACK THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN LIVE
One notices that in a weak monsoon year the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) throws out more tropical cyclones.
This year we had Ashobaa and the deep depression in June that drenched Gujarat. The Bay of Bengal spawned a surprising cyclone Komen in the middle of the rainy season.
The birth of upcoming cyclone Chapala will occur in the Bay of Bengal. It will start off as a innocuous low pressure area on September 12, Saturday. The system will form off the Odisha coast but will bob around in the Sea and will intensify into a deep depression near the Andhra coast,
This storm will move through peninsular India and Mumbai on September 18, 2015 bringing heavy rains to the city. The depression will then move into the Arabian Sea and then intensify into a tropical cyclone Chapala. It will move past the coast of Saurashtra and head towards Oman. If latest forecasts are to be believed it will hit north-eastern Oman on September 22-23.
We prophesy all this on the basis of the predictions by the venerable GFS system. The ECMWF too agrees that a low pressure area will form in the Bay of Bengal by September 13. It expects the system to strengthen into either a deep depression or a tropical cyclone on September 16 and hit the Indian coast of Andhra-Odisha. Whether it hops over peninsular India into the Arabian Sea and metamorphose into a cyclone is to be seen.
In a nutshell, the latest forecast situation. The GFS says a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea. The European model predicts a deep depression off Andhra coast.
Keep in touch for the latest predictions.
TRACK THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN LIVE
 |
| The GFS model predicts heavy rains in Mumbai and Konkan coast on September 19, 2015. It also foresees the birth of a cyclone after that in the Arabian Sea. |
2 comments:
Good news
And coming up Gujarat rain
Good news
Post a Comment