Arabian Sea depression to hit South Gujarat at Surat

Update: June 23, 2015, 1030 hours GMT

The European model has said depression 97A will move in a north easterly direction in the next 24 hours. Coastal Amreli district then onto South Gujarat.

The GFS in its latest data issued at 0600 GMT predicts a more northerly movement during next 24 hours. Right through Saurashtra on to north and central Gujarat.

Who will win?
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IMD confirms 97A will move through Diu, Amreli district and move to South Gujarat.

The Arabian Sea Deep Depression will make landfall at Diu and then move through coastal Amreli and Bhavnagar districts to South Gujarat at Surat in the next 24 hours.

YESTERDAY’S  DEPRESSION  OVER  NORTHEAST  AND  ADJOINING  EASTCENTRAL  ARABIAN  SEA MOVED  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS,  INTENSIFIED  INTO  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  AND  LAY CENTRED  AT  0300  UTC  OF  TODAY,  THE  23RD  JUNE  2015,  OVER  NORTHEAST  ARABIAN  SEA  OFF SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  LATITUDE  20.5°NORTH  AND  LONGITUDE  70.5°EAST,  ABOUT  50 KM  WEST-SOUTHWEST  OF  DIU.    IT  WOULD  MOVE  EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS  AND  CROSS SOUTH  GUJARAT  COAST  NEAR  DIU  AS  A  DEEP  DEPRESSION  BY  TODAY,  THE    23RD  JUNE  2015 AFTERNOON  .   ACCORDING  TO  LATEST  SATELLITE  IMAGERY,  INTENSITY  OF  THE  SYSTEM  IS  T  2.0.  THE CONVECTIVE  CLOUD  MASS  IS  SHEARED  TO  THE  WEST  OF  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  LOWEST CLOUD TOP  TEMPERATURE  IS  -88.0°C.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN  LOW  AND  MEDIUM  CLOUDS  WITH EMBEDDED  INTENSE  TO  VERY  INTENSE  CONVECTION  OVER  ARABIAN  SEA  NORTH  OF LATITUDE  14.0°NORTH  TO  22.0°NORTH  AND  EAST  OF  LONGITUDE  62.0°EAST.  THE  ESTIMATED CENTRAL  PRESSURE  IS  989  HPA.  MAXIMUM  SURFACE  WIND  SPEED  IS  ABOUT  30  KNOTS GUSTING  TO  40  KNOTS  AROUND  THE  SYSTEM  CENTRE.  SEA  CONDITION  IS  VERY  ROUGH AROUND THE  SYSTEM CENTRE  AND ALONG  AND  OFF  GUJARAT  COAST. 

Cyclone Hudhud Update: 11/10/2014: Very Strong Winds To Lash Andhra, Odisha And Chattisgarh On Sunday

Cyclone Hudhud is now only a few hundred kilometers from Visakhapatnam. Rains are already lashing coastal districts of Odisha, Andhra and West Bengal.

Now the latest expected wind speed check. Just when the storm is near Vizag, the storm will throw up the strongest winds. 200-250 Kph. This will be early morning on Sunday (12/10/2014).  Come Sunday evening and winds of 165-200 Kph will be howling through the districts of Andhra ( Visakhapatnam, Sri Kakulam, Vijayanagaram and East Godavari), Odisha (Malkangiri, Koraput, Nabarangpur). Even Chattisgarh (Dantewada and Jagdalpur) will experience winds of 120-160 Kph.

And very heavy rain everywhere. Especially in Northern Andhra, southern Orissa and parts of Chattisgarh.

It is a misconception that the storm will weaken rapidly after making landfall. It is a powerful system that is going reach Uttar Pradesh and bring rainfall there.

Headlines Today

Cyclone Hudhud Will Bring Heavy Rains To Andhra And Orissa : Oct. 10-13, 2014

Cyclone Hudhud will not only bring powerful winds, but very heavy rainfall. Not only to Andhra (Visakhapatnam is Ground Zero) but also Orissa, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh (And Even Uttar Pradesh).

The rains will start from October 10, 2014. Friday. And will continue for the next three days. Seemandhra of course will see most of the flooding. But Orissa will also receive heavy rains from Saturday to Monday.

There will be floods in these two states.

Rainfall Forecast Map Owing to Cyclone Hudhud

The map shows the amount of rainfall that Cyclone Hudhud will bring from Today till Sunday, October 12, 2014

Future Cyclone HUDHUD Is A Low Pressure East Of Andaman Islands Now

FORECAST MAP: October 8, 2014: Hudhud intensifies after it crosses the Andaman Islands. The eye of the cyclone is clearly seen.

The JTWC says there is a medium chance of a cyclone developing in the low pressure area which hovers in the Bay of Bengal east of the Indian Andaman Islands.

In the next 24 hours the system is going to cross the the Andaman Islands. The Middle Andaman Islands will face the most of the wind and heavy rainfall. The islands will have winds gusting at 70-85 kph.

Now the IMD (Indian Met. Dept.) definition is if a storm has winds in excess of 62 kph it is declared a cyclone. Now following that I guess the IMD should name the system "Hudhud". But I have detected a certain reluctance on the part of the IMD to name a storm. The JTWC in contrast is prompt in christening a tropical storm.

So in a nut shell. The Andaman Islands (including Port Blair) is in for strong winds and heavy precipitation in the next 24 hours as cyclone Hudhud enters manhood from adolescence.

After that in a day or two Hudhud will intensify rapidly as it moves towards the coast of Orissa. The eye of the storm will become visible. Winds will be at around 100 kph.

On October 11, 2014 Hudhud will strike the Orissa coast.

The latest NASA image shows the birth place of cyclone Hudhud east of the Andaman Islands.

The satellite image of the Bay of Bengal taken at 0530 hrs IST, October 7, 2014,  shows Hudhud taking shape

Read More

• Cyclone HUDHUD Might Turn Out To Be Quite A Big Storm
• Latest Update: Not Orissa, but Andhra Coast on October 11, 2014
• #CycloneHudhud Will Rapidly Intensify in 24 Hours After It Crosses Andaman Islands
• Cyclone Hudhud Has Formed in The Bay of Bengal: Will Hit Orissa Coast on October 11, 2014
• Is Cyclone HUDHUD Coming Soon To Bay of Bengal?

Remnants Of Typhoon Fung-wong Will Bring Rains To Japan

Typhoon Fung-wong is no longer a storm but a low pressure area. It is now crossing South Korea. In the next few days it will move over Japan bringing heavy precipitation in many parts.

Whatever that remains of Fungwong will bring rains to Japan

Low Pressure To Form Today. Oman in for heavy rains on June 13, 2014. Cyclone NANAUK coming?

TROPICAL STORM UPDATE: JUNE 5, 2014, 0330 HRS UTC

All forecast models are in agreement that a low pressure will form TODAY (June 5, 2014) and that it is going to intensify into a big cyclone in a few days. Questions is where is it going to hit? Oman? Pakistan? Or India, at Gujarat?

Latest GFS forecast say that it will hit Oman on June 13, 2014. But not as a full-blooded storm but as a depression, or a low pressure. The GFS forecast says (Now at least) that the low pressure area is unlikely to remain a full blown cyclone when it reaches Oman. After moving north as it nears Gujarat, the system will lose steam and drift towards Oman and reach it on June 13, 2014. Even then it will throw down a lot of precipitation.

Another point. The Arabian Sea is so unstable at present that the GFS forecast changes with every output. Hence we cannot rule out the possibility of the low pressure system growing into a massive storm and hitting anywhere. Both the CMC and NAVGEM say it is going to hit Oman full steam. Both these models though less reliable than the GFS and the European model, are not to be belittled.

One thing is for sure. Oman is in for rains. Around June 13, 2014.

Heavy rainfall is likely in northern Oman (Muscat included) on June 13, 2014

WE PREDICTED THAT.... Heavy rains lash ODISHA

We had foretold way back on May 11, 2014 that heavy rains would lash Odisha on May 26, 2014. It has happened. Here is a news item in the New Indian Express....

Heavy Rains Lash Odisha; Flood Alert in 6 Districts By Express News Service
Published: 26th May 2014 09:32 AM
Last Updated: 26th May 2014 09:32 AM

BHUBANESWAR: The Odisha Government issued heavy rain and flood alert for six coastal districts after the low pressure-induced showers lashed many parts of the State on Sunday. The Special Relief Commissioner’s (SRC) office asked Collectors of Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Keonjhar and Dhenkanal to remain alert for flash flood. The alert came after the low pressure off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast triggered heavy rains across several coastal, central and western districts. Balasore received at least 100 mm rain since morning, while Bhubaneswar reported over 92 mm rain during the day. Cuttack (72 mm), Chandbali (53 mm), Puri (58 mm) and Gopalpur (54 mm) also received good showers. Other districts such as Angul (24 mm), Dhenkanal (47 mm) and Mayurbhanj (15 mm) as well as western districts, including Jharsuguda, also received showers.
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From Deccan Herald
Heavy rain brings respite from heat in Odisha 
Bhubaneswar, May 25, 2014

Heavy rain under the impact of a low pressure formed in the Bay of Bengal, lashed many parts of Odisha including Bhubaneswar on Sunday, bringing in the much-awaited relief to the people reeling under intense heat wave for the last several days. The rainfall will continue for the next two days.

Will the tropical storm in Bay Of Bengal Turn Into Cyclone NANAUK?

A low pressure area hovers in the seas off the coast of Burma. It is 370 nautical miles south of Chittagong presently.

The question is; will the low pressure area remain just that when it makes landfall? Or will it grow stronger into a depression; or may be a cyclone. May be NANAUK might form in the Bay of Bengal. We are keeping a close eye.

The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), which is considered a god by storm trackers and predictors, says there is a 50-50 chance of a tropical storm developing.

The low pressure area is likely to intensify rapidly tomorrow into a tropical storm (May 24, 2014). Then it will move towards Bangladesh and then intensify rapidly again on Monday (May 26, 2014). 

Chances are, it is Nanauk in the making.... But will the storm gain enough strength to qualify in the eyes of IMD (Indian Met. Dept.) to be honored with a name; NANAUK?

UPDATE: MAY 24, 2014, O430 GMT

Present forecasts say the system will intensify in the next day or two and make landfall. Opinions vary. Orissa-West Bengal coast. Or Bangladesh. The tropical storm is unlikely to gain enough strength to be given a name, Nanauk. Certain forecasts say that it will not be a mere low pressure, but a deep depression. This system will be closely watched by us.

Expected Low Pressure Area in Bay of Bengal Will Drench Bengal Or Bangladesh?

A low pressure area is swirling in the Bay of Bengal off the Burmese coast. Where will it go?

Forecasts differ slightly. One says it is bam-bam-woosh for Bangladesh. Very heavy rains from Monday (May26, 2014). Others say the low pressure area will first affect coastal Orissa and West Bengal.And then it will move into Bangladesh two days later, that is on Wednesday (May 28, 2014).

But expect heavy rains all the same. Question is, will it be West Bengal first. Or Bangladesh and then Assam, with West Bengal escaping with comparatively less precipitation.

 Alternative 1: The system hits Bangladesh on May 26, 2014  and then moves over into Indian NE

Alternative 2: Drenches Orisaa, West Bengal on May 26, 2014. And then moves into Bangladesh on May 28 (Wednesday).

(Will it turn into Cyclone NANAUK?)

Bangladesh, Indian NE in for a deluge on May 26-27, 2014

May 24, 2014. The massive rain-bearing low pressure as it heads into Bangladesh. Maximum rainfall will be on May 26-27, 2014.

Bangladesh is in for a real pounding by the rains gods. A low pressure area will form within a day or two off the coast of Myanmar. This system will then move north straight into Bangladesh. Thou the rains will start from Sunday (May 25, 2014), the heaviest lashing will occur on Tuesday (May 27, 2014.

The Indian NE states too will receive heavy rains as the system will move there from Bangladesh.

Chances of flooding, folks. As the precipitation will be a deluge, no less.

Weather Gods Change Mind Again: Now Deluge In West Bengal, Bangladesh On May 29, 2014

It is rightly said that it is difficult to fathom the weather gods. Especially when we are looking at a 15 days forecast. We have said earlier that heavy rains were likely in Orissa-Andhra and then Assam around the 26th of May, 2014.

Well the rains have changed dates and place again. Now forecasts say there is going to be deluge in West Bengal on May 28-29, 2014. Parts of Bangladesh too will be affected.

This is a nasty rain forecast map. It shows the forthcoming deluge in West Bengal, Bangladesh and Assam on May 28, 2014

Heavy Rains To Lash Assam, NE India From May 22, 2014. Floods Likely

Heavy rains will start in Assam from May 22, 2014

Latest forecasts indicate that Assam is heading for floods by the end of the

month. We have predicted rains in West Bengal, Orissa and Andhra coast earlier around May 26th. But latest trends show that Assam will bear the brunt of the rain fury. The precipitation will start from May 22, 2014 and will turn heavier by May 27. The Indian North East is in for very heavy rains around May 27, 2014. 

 Danger of flooding in these areas.

Heavy Rains Likely In Orissa-Andhra Coastal Areas On May 26, 2014.

Heavy rains will lash Orissa-Andhra coast on May 26, 2014

El-Nino withstanding, the monsoons will be moving towards the Indian sub-continent soon. Satellite images show the Bay of Bengal is laden with moisture. The real action will start on the 18th of May when a large mass of rain clouds will form in the Andaman Sea off the Phuket coast.

This mass of clouds will move gradually north and drench the coastal areas of Myanmar for the next two days. EXPECT FLOODING IN COASTAL MYANMAR ON MAY 22-23.

These rain clouds will then drift towards the Indian coast. One can expect rains in West Bengal coast from May 24, 2014. But the brunt of the deluge will happen on the Orissa-Andhra coast on May 26. The areas affected will be the stretch between Visakhapatnam and Cuttack.

Arabian Sea Storm May Hit Gujarat October 30, 2013. Is Cyclone HELEN Coming?

A storm will rise in the Arabian Sea. That much is for sure. Where it will go. Yesterday's forecasts said it would be Oman. Latest predictions say the depression will strike Gujarat (India) on October 30, 2013. Some forecasts say it might be a cyclone.

OCTOBER 29, 2013. HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE INTO GUJARAT

AS WE SAID BEFORE IT IS EARLY DAYS. THE STORM SYSTEM MAY WELL TURN INTO A FULL BLOWN CYCLONE. IT MAY MOVE TO OMAN, PAKISTAN OR THE INDIAN COAST. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE.

The present forecasts say that a low pressure area will form near the Kerala coast on October 24, 2013. It will strengthen and move north. Then it will gain power and move NW towards Oman. Once it is between the Indian and Omani coast it will turn into a cyclone and move towards Gujarat and hit it on October 30, 2013.

UPDATE: October 22, 2013

Latest forecasts say that the expected system will only be a weak low pressure area which will bring some rains to Mumbai at the end of the month.

Two Low Pressure Areas: Rains In Oman And West Bengal Expected

XWF WEATHER PREDICTION MAP: SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN TODAY SHOWS THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS, ONE EACH IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA (WILL FORM ON MAY 30)

Today we shall talk about two low pressure areas (LPA). One in the Arabian Sea, the other in the Bay of

Bengal. One has already formed. The other will take shape on May 30, 2013.

As we had forecasted earlier,  a low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal. We had also said that this system would make landfall two days later and bring heavy rains in Bangladesh and West Bengal. Well, there has been a slight change of plan. The LPA will not go straight into Bangladesh. But it will hover around for some time near the Orissa coast then move into land on May 29, 2013 at the Orissa-West Bengal border. It will then curve into West Bengal bringing heavy rains in the state for the next 3-4 days. North Bengal will get rains on June 1, 2013. Heavy rains, if I may so.
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Then the system will drench north Bangladesh on June 2, 2013. I am talking of Rangpur, Dinajpur, Panchgarh and Thakurgaon.

The Arabian Sea LPA will form on May 30, 2013. It will move along the Oman coast in a northerly direction, giving rains to the coastal areas. Muscat may get some rains on June 4-5, 2013. It may rain in Abu Dabhi, Dubai and Doha around May 6, 2013. Muscat will get some good showers on June 5-6, 2013.

Low Pressure Area To Bring Heavy Rains In Bangladesh And West Bengal Next Week

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN TODAY (MAY 25, 2013) SHOWS THE AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS NEAR THE MYANMAR COAST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THESE WILL GIVE BIRTH TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON MAY 27.

Bangladesh and West Bengal are in for a thorough drenching

next week. This will be as a result of a low pressure area that is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal on May 27, 2013.

Now this rain system will form a few hundred kilometers south of the Bangladesh coast.Then it will start moving northwards gradually in the next two days and make landfall on May 29, 2013.

Very heavy rains are forecast in SW Bangladesh on May 29. It will also rain heavily in Gangetic West Bengal on May 30.

After that the system will move into Assam on June 1, 2013.

The verdict? Very heavy rains in Bangladesh from May 29 to May 31.

Mumbai Is In For A Deluge From June 6, 2013

XWF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: JUNE 9, 2013: DELUGE APPROACHES MUMBAI

The monsoon is going to come early this year. And it is going to be vigorous.

Things are happening in the Bay of Bengal right now as monsoon winds enter it from the east. Within days Bay of Bengal is going to be laden with rain-bearing monsoon clouds.

Pre-monsoon showers are going to begin in the Indian west coast too within a few days. Dry Gujarat too will get light rains within a week.

But the forecast that interests us greatly is Mumbai. The metropolis is in for a huge deluge around June 9, 2013. This will be partly as a result of a Bay of Bengal low pressure area which will reach it on June 9. And partly because of a rain bearing system which is hovering around in the Arabian Sea since the last few days

This system will move towards the Oman coast in the next few days, bring southern Oman some rains on May 30, 2013. The system will then potter around near the Omani coast for some time and then start moving in an easterly direction towards the Indian coast.

June 9, 2013. The two systems will collide. And BOOM! Very heavy rains on the entire Indian west coast stretching from Gujarat to Goa. Mumbai will get very heavy rainfall for a few days.

Folks in Mumbai. Be prepared for a drenching on June 9, 2013.

Latest forecasts say the drenching in Mumbai will start from June 6, 2013 and continue for 5-6 days.

Keep reading this site for latest updates.

VERY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN OMAN ON JUNE 6, 2013

XWF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: JUNE 6, 2013: HEAVY RAINS IN SOUTHERN OMAN

We had predicted earlier that there would be some rains in southern Oman on May 30, 2013.

Well there is going to be some rain on May 30, 2013. But there have been new developments.

A rain bearing cloud system has been hovering around in south Arabian Sea for some days now. This system is going to slowly move towards the coast of southern Oman during the next seven days. Once it comes near the coast it will turn into a low pressure system (may be even a depression) and linger over the Arabian Sea near the coast for the next few days giving intermittent rains in southern Oman.

It is on June 6, 2013, that this system will move into Oman and then there will be a deluge for the next two days in southern Oman. Very heavy rains are likely in Sawqirah, Sharbatat, Duqm, Hayma, Marmul, Dawkah, Thamarit and Sadh on June 6-7.

Moderate winds may lash the south Oman coast in the first week of June. The sea is going to be rough.