Cyclone Nilofar And Oman

Forecast Map: Nilofar reaches Oman coast: Late Tuesday

Cyclone Nilofar is 900 kms from Salalah (Oman). How is it going to affect Oman?

In the next two days the storm will move to the southern Oman coast.

Then just when it appears to us that is going to make landfall, Nilofar will move northwards along the Oman coast. It is going to skim along the entire coastline. Then on Friday. The storm will jerk away into a NE direction towards Pakistan coast.

The entire coastal areas of Oman will witness strong winds and heavy rains from Wednesday to Friday (October 28 to 30, 2014).

In other words, though officially Cyclone Nilofar will not hit Oman, it will feel its effects for two days.

Arabian Sea Storm NANAUK To Be Weak: Will Bring Rains To Central Coastal Oman June 11, 2014

The expected storm will be a weak one. Forecast map shows it on June 10, 2014 when it will be at its strongest with winds gusting at 80 Kph.

ARABIAN SEA LOW PRESSURE UPDATE: JUNE 7, 0830 HRS GMT

Latest forecasts say that the pressure low pressure area in the Arabian Sea will intensify slowly in the next few days.

But it will be weak storm. And by the time it touches the Oman coast it will be a mere low pressure area which on contact will dissipate. It will bring some rain to central coastal Oman from June 11, 2014.

But make no mistake. Even if it will be a weak storm, it will be nothing to sneeze at. The low pressure area will throw up winds in excess of 50 Kmph with rainfall. The impact will be on June 11, 2014. And windy weather will continue in coastal Oman for next two-three days.

Temperatures will fall. And there will be precipitation from Wednesday (June 11) to Saturday (June 14). Most of the rain will be around central coastal Oman, between Sawqirah and Khaluf.

The Cyclone Will Hit Southern Oman On June 4, 2014

The expected tropical storm touching the southern Oman coast on June 4, 2014

Latest forecast by US Navy Met. site says the tropical storm will hit the extreme southern coast of Oman on June 4, 2014, bordering the northern Yemen coast.

There is yet no confirmation of the expected storm from other forecasters.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS PREDICTION IS BASED ON FORECAST BY THE NAVGEM MODEL AND HAS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED BY OTHER FORECAST MODELS YET.

WE WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED.

US Navy Meteorologists Say Massive Cyclone Nanauk To Hit Oman On June 2, 2014

Cyclone Nanauk about to hit the south Oman coast on June 3, 2014

BREAKING FORECAST.......

THE US NAVY METEOROLOGISTS PREDICT A MONSTER CYCLONE(NANAUK) TO FORM IN THE ARABIAN SEA ON MAY 29, 2014 OFF THE KERALA COAST. IT WILL INTENSIFY INTO A MASSIVE CYCLONE AND HIT THE SOUTHERN OMAN COAST ON JUNE 3-4, 2014.

Globally there are only a handful of organisations that give out weather forecasts. The Americans do it, The British do it and the US Navy does it. The US navy has great interest in forecasting weather globally for obvious reasons.

These guys have their own forecast model called the NAVGEM (US NAVy Global Environmental Model).

And this model predicts that a low pressure area will form in the Arabian Sea around the Maldives on May 29, 2014. This will gradually gain strength and move northward initially. Then after a day or two it will start moving in a north west direction and hit the Oman coast on June 3-4, 2014, near the town of Mirbat, Fararah and Sawqirah.

UNDER IT'S INFLUENCE ENTIRE OMAN WILL START GETTING HEAVY RAINS FROM JUNE 1, 2014. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT ONE WEEK. EARLY JUNE WILL SEE A FLOODED, VERY WET OMAN.

Heavy rains approach Oman on June 1, 2014

According to the forecast the storm (which will be christened "NANAUK") is going to be a big, mean, destructive storm.

I am waiting for confirmation of the forecast by other forecast models, including the venerable JTWC.

I will keep updating you.

For now it seems big bad NANAUK is coming Oman's way.

EXPECTED PATH OF CYCLONE NANAUK FROM MAY 30 TO JUNE 3, 2014

Latest Predicted Path Of The Storm

VERY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN OMAN ON JUNE 6, 2013

XWF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: JUNE 6, 2013: HEAVY RAINS IN SOUTHERN OMAN

We had predicted earlier that there would be some rains in southern Oman on May 30, 2013.

Well there is going to be some rain on May 30, 2013. But there have been new developments.

A rain bearing cloud system has been hovering around in south Arabian Sea for some days now. This system is going to slowly move towards the coast of southern Oman during the next seven days. Once it comes near the coast it will turn into a low pressure system (may be even a depression) and linger over the Arabian Sea near the coast for the next few days giving intermittent rains in southern Oman.

It is on June 6, 2013, that this system will move into Oman and then there will be a deluge for the next two days in southern Oman. Very heavy rains are likely in Sawqirah, Sharbatat, Duqm, Hayma, Marmul, Dawkah, Thamarit and Sadh on June 6-7.

Moderate winds may lash the south Oman coast in the first week of June. The sea is going to be rough.

A Rain System Will Touch Southern Oman On May 30, 2013

Presently things are very boring in the North Indian Ocean after the departure of MAHASEN. It is only in the end of the month that the SE monsoons will start approaching South Asia. But there is another interesting development in the Arabian Sea. No it is not a cyclone, nor even a depression.

But I am talking of the mass of rain-bearing clouds in south Arabian Sea. They have been there for quite a few days now. Initially it was expected that they will give birth to a substantial storm.

But forecasts now say the system will start moving gradually towards the coast of southern Oman and give some rains on May 30, 2013. It will rain heavily in the next two days in the sea off the coast. Then this system will move in a  NE direction and bring heavy rains to the Saurashtra (India) coast on May 6, 2013.

There are still some days to go. Will the rain system behave as we have predicted? Or will it change its mind and turn into something more substantial?

Let us wait and watch.

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map; May 30, 2013. Rainfall in southern Oman

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map: June 2, 2013. Heavy rains off the coast of southern Oman

Xtreme Weather Rain Prediction Map: June 5, 2013. The system now reaches the Gujarat coast and brings heavy rains