Future Monster Hurricane MATTHEW May Go Anywhere

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016, THURSDAY 

Tropical storm Matthew slowly moving west in the Carribeans has forecast models pointing at different directions when the future track of this soon to be monster hurricane is concerned.

Yesterday we had hinted it could hit Miami, Florida on October 6-7, 2016. This prediction we had based on the ever reliable European model, ECMWF. Today the ECMWF is predicting a different path. It expects a direct hit on Haiti on October 5, 2016. This model further says that this storm is going to be even stronger than earlier expected. After passing Haiti, it will intensify into a category 4 monster reaching a central minimum pressure of 927 hPa. That means winds in excess of 120 knots. Possibly Bermuda is in for a royal thrashing.

But as we said earlier different forecast models are saying different things. The National Hurricane Center says Cuba is for a rendezvous with Matthew. But it remains silent on where the hurricane will go after that. Head for Florida? Or swing away into North Altlantic Ocean?

The present situation is that it could go anywhere, from states adjoining the Gulf of Mexico (seems unlikely) to a hit on Florida (less unlikely) or sailing away into the Atlantic after giving Haiti or Cuba a good hiding.

UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 30, 2016, FRIDAY

Though the official National Hurricane Center forecast predicts hurricane Matthew will move through Cuba and into the Altlantic, the threat to Florida remains. The reliable ECMWF model foresees a hit on the state. Supporting it is the NHC-LBAR model. Even the GDFL and GDFN models predict a path close to Florida.

This storm has many folks in the weather forecasting community on tenterhooks. The red line is the ECMWF prediction. The white line with red dots is the official NHC forecast.

Super Typhoon LIONROCK May Hit Japan On August 29, 2016

AUGUST 23, 2016, TUESDAY

Tropical storm LIONROCK has already formed. At present it lies about 650 kilometres northeast of Naha, Okinawa in Northwest Pacific Ocean. It already has sustained winds of over 100 km/h. In the coming days it will move a little in the direction of Taiwan then abruptly backtrack.

By Friday it will intensified into a powerful storm. Forecast models indicate the by Sunday it will have a central minimum pressure of an astounding 915 hPa. According to research by American meteorologists with such low pressure in its eye, the tropical cyclone will be throwing winds of about 130-140 knots. That is a category 5 hurricane.

The worrisome aspect is reliable numerical forecast models say super typhoon LIONROCK may hit either southern or central Japan on August 29, 2016. If this does happen it may cause considerable destruction in the country.

The little blessing is the storm is expected to weaken before landfall into Japan.

As DIAMMU Enters Vietnam, Rains In Madhya Pradesh Till Sunday

AUGUST 19, 2016, FRIDAY 

Talking of significant developments, tropical storm DIAMMU is entering northern Vietnam as we write. It turned out weaken than was earlier expected. About 75 km/h winds on impact. 

Nevertheless it will traverse through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and reach Bangladesh on Sunday. It will move past West Bengal, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and reach Gujarat on August 24, 2016.

Meanwhile the low pressure area over Jharkhand-eastern Uttar Pradesh is moving into Madhya Pradesh. Expect very heavy rains in some parts of the state till Monday. Bhopal, Indore. There might be showers in parts of eastern Gujarat, southeast Rajasthan on Sunday owing to the system. 

The GFS model foresees rains in parts of eastern and northern India in the coming fortnight. The western parts of the country will remain rainless (except for the DIAMMU effect). An early departure of a weak monsoon?

By the month end one can expect a storm system developing in the Bay of Bengal. Let us see. The Arabian Sea has been unnaturally inactive this year. Weird.

HOTSPOTS NOW

Tropical Storm DIAMMU Brewing In South China Sea

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Tropical storm DIAMMU is imminent in the South China Sea south of Hong Kong-Macau coast of Guangdong province coast of China.

It is a low pressure area presently. NOAA calls it Invest 95W.

By tomorrow it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone.

It will move west through Haikou, Hainan island on Thursday and enter the Gulf of Tonkin.

It will make landfall into northern Vietnam on Friday, August 19, 2016, with winds of 80-100 km/h. But latest forecast says it might be 140-150 km/h winds as the typhoon is expected to intensify rapidly before hitting Vietnam. A central minimum pressure of 970 hPa. Powerful storm.

It will weaken into a persistent low pressure area as it moves through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar. It will reach Indian Northeast and Bangladesh on August 21-22.

Hurricane PATRICIA will reach Baffin Bay on November 2!

This lady monster has stamina! Hurricane Patricia is a category 5 tropical cyclone in north east Pacific Ocean and has given Mexico a fright of its life. It is going to hit Jalisco province of the country at around 0000 GMT, October 24, 2015. That is in less than 18 hours.

The hurricane will rapidly weaken into a tropical storm hours after impact and then into a tropical depression after that. But it is going to bring very heavy rains as it cuts across Mexico.

By October 25 it will have reached Houston, Texas. Patricia will go for a brief stroll in the Gulf of Mexico. On October 28 it will re-enter the United States and move through Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky.

In the next 48 hours after that Patricia will move through the states on the eastern coast (including New York) and through Quebec, Newfoundland in Canada into Labrador Sea.

By November 2 the system will have turned into a extra-tropical cyclone and entered Baffin Bay. 

So we see that Patricia is no ordinary hurricane. It is going to travel through 3 countries in the coming 10 days.

We have based our predictions on the forecast data from the ECMWF model. It had been proved right from the beginning during hurricane Joaquín. It had predicted it would not make landfall into eastern USA even as other models, including the NHC were predicting a hit on the eastern coast.

Latest satellite image of category 5 hurricane Patricia 

Tropical Storm JANGMI Will Be A Little Storm: But Heavy Rains In Philippines. Vietnam Not To Be Affected

Update: December 29, 2014

Tropical Storm Jangmi will be a little storm. At its zenith it will whip up winds of 75 kph. No More. But it will bring a lot of rain to central Philippines till January 1, 2014.

Right now the storm has entered central Philippines. Heavy rains are lashing Caraga in Mindanao. The storm will move through Visayas (All of them) and exit the country via Palawan. It is going to intensify when it leaves the Western Viasayas tomorrow evening (Local Time). Winds will reach speeds of 75-80 kph. So Palawan is in for a windy, wet New Year's Day.

Jangmi is not expected to hit Vietnam. It is going to move in a SW direction after leaving Palawan. It will then move in the South China Sea and dissipate before it reaches Thai shores on January 4, 2014. Some rains in Thailand too on that day.

Track Path Forecast for Tropical Storm Jangmi according to JTWC (Bulletin issued at 0300 hours, GMT, December 29, 2014)

See Rain Forecast Maps

See TS Jangmi Live

Philippines In Peril: Tropical Storm Jangmi Is Coming!

Philippines has just emerged from typhoon Hagupit, when another peril lurks round the corner. Jangmi is gonna come visiting the country on December 29.

Tropical Storm Jangmi is gonna be a slimy customer. Right now it does not exist, even as a low pressure. Hence it has not come on NOAA's constant vigil, even as an "invest".

The storm will begin innocuously as a low north of Papua New Guinea in a day or two. It will then stealthily creep towards Philippines, come near the coast of Mandanao, then intensify rapidly into a tropical storm, very close to the coast of the country on December 29, 2014.

It will then move NNW and enter the country from the Eastern Visayas.

Jangmi will be no Hagupit but it will cause trouble because it will be a slow moving storm. It is gong to move diagonally into the country. Hence lots of rains and of course the winds.

The Expected System Will At Best Be A Depression:Heay Rains Likely In Philippines, Vietnam In Next 15 Days

Update: December 10, 2014

The  system (96W) that has formed in the Pacific near Palau Island will not intensify into a significant tropical storm. It is likely to remain a low pressure area or a depression.

Update: December 9, 2014

There is another tropical storm coming  to Philippines. On December 13, 2014.

NOAA has taken note of this imminent storm. It calls it 96W (See Track). Presently it lies about 1100 kms ESE of Palau in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm JANGMI will form on December 11, and move to Philippines intensifying as it does so. It will move through central Philippines from December 13-14 and then enter the South China Sea. When it travels across the country the winds will be in excess of 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. For a country that is reeling under the impact of super typhoon Hagupit, this is bad news.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify again in the warm  South China Sea and go on to hit central Vietnam (almost the same area where Hagupit is going to impact on Thursday) on December 15, 2014, Monday.

In short, it is double whammy for Vietnam in the coming few days.

Read: Hagupit Threat to Vietnam

UPDATE: December 8, 2014

Later forecasts have predicted that the chances of a significant tropical storm forming in the next one week in western Pacific are remote. Hence Jangmi will not form now.

But Hagupit is coming to Vietnam on December 12 morning (Vietnam Time). A minor storm with winds of 65-85 kph.

UPDATE: December 7, 2014

Hagupit Will Intensify again a little as it enters the South China Sea on Tuesday. It will hit south Vietnam on December 11, 2014, albeit as a weak storm. Another smaller typhoon JANGMI will follow Hagupit in a few days.

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph.

The formation of Jangmi is supported by the GFS and Gem models. It will be a depression when it enters central Philippines on December 14, 2014. But once it enters the South China Sea, it will gain typhoon status and go on to hit Vietnam on December 16-17.

December 14, 2014: Tropical Storm JANGMI En Route To Vietnam

Typhoon SINLAKU UPDATE: November 29, 2014: Stronger Than Expected: Turn Into 120-150 Kmph Storm Today Evening

UPDATE NOVEMBER 29, 2014

Typhoon Sinlaku will turn out nastier than earlier expected. By today evening it will be howling with winds of 120-150 Kmph as it nears the coast of Vietnam. It will make landfall tonight at the Phu Yen province of the country. The winds will drop slightly when it hits the country.

Even Kampuchea will have 45-65 Kmph winds tomorrow evening (Sunday) as the weakened storm moves into the country.

VIDEO: THIS IS HOW SINLAKU WILL MOVE

INFRA RED IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM "SINLAKU" AT 0330 HRS UTC TODAY

TRACK OF TYPHOON SINLAKU

UPDATE NOVEMBER 28, 2014

The storm has entered the South China Sea after passing Philippines and is officially Typhoon SINLAKU. Wind speed now is 60-70 Kmph. In the next 36 hours it is rapidly going to strengthen into a 90-120 Kmph storm. On Saturday evening (Vietnam time) it will hit the coast of Vietnam with winds of 85 Kmph (Gust of 100 Kmph) in Binh Dinh and Quang Ngai provinces. The town of Tam Ky will be worst hit.

XWF FORECAST MAP: NOVEMBER 29 SATURDAY. SINLAKU ABOUT TO HIT VIETNAM.

UPDATE NOVEMBER 27, 2014

The depression weakened a little as it passed Negros, Cebu and Bohol islands of Philippines. It is expected to intensify again as it passes Palawan and enters the South China Sea.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF FUTURE STORM SINLAKU AS IT CROSSES PHILIPPINES. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY

UPDATE NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The JTWC has recognised the emerging typhoon Sinlaku. In its latest bulletin it calls it Tropical Depression 21W. The JTWC forecast largely agrees with what we have been predicting in the last few days. The typhoon will intensify after leaving Philippines, In fact while it will be passing over Palawan Island of the country. Winds then , tomorrow evening, will be 65 Kmph, gusting to 95 kmph. Vietnam is going to be battered with 90 kmph wind gusts up to 130 kmph on Saturday, November 29. Point of impact is Nha Trang.

THE JTWC FORECAST SUPPORTS WHAT WE HAD PREDICTED

--------------------------------------------------

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014:

The JTWC in it's latest bulletin has confirmed the formation of typhoon Sinlaku.

Vietnam is in for it. Big typhoon Sinlaku is going to hit it on Saturday, November 29, 2014. The system has reached central Philippines and heavy rains have started there. It is a depression now with winds of 45 Kmph. But come tomorrow it will turn into Sinlaku typhoon as it leaves Philippines in the Sulu Sea. By the time it hits Vietnam it will have winds of  80-100 Kmph.

NOV 29, 2014: TYPHOON SINLAKU ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL VIETNAM

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014

The low pressure area lies near Palau Islands presently, latitude 7 degrees north, longitude 134. 3 degrees east  with wind speed of 25-30 Kmph. Tomorrow it will reach Philippines at Mindanao Island and cross it. Heavy rains are expected there in the 24 hours after that.

The low pressure will rapidly intensify into a cyclone after it crosses over to the South China Sea. Typhoon Sinlaku will hit Vietnam near Nha Trang on Saturday, November 29, 2014 with wind speeds of 65-85 Kmph.

Forecast Flash: Typhoon HAGUPIT might soon follow Sinlaku. "Hagupit" may hit central Philippines on December 2, 2014.

Infra-Red satellite image of the low pressure taken at  0400 GMT today

--------------------------------------------

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: TYPHOON SINLAKU (NENENG) WILL HIT CENTRAL PHILIPPINES ON NOVEMBER 26, 2014

Powerful Typhoon "Sinlaku" (Neneng) Will Hit Central Philippines On Wednesday (November 26, 2014) with winds of 100+ Kmph. The storm will then move on to Vietnam on Sunday.

Sinlaku will form just a few hundred kilometers east of Philippines tomorrow. It will then rapidly intensify and hit the country on Wednesday. The islands of Western and Eastern Visaya will be worst hit. Central Visaya, Bikol, Caraga and Nimiropa provinces will be badly hit too. The typhoon will cross over into South China Sea and make landfall in central Vietnam's Binh Dinh province.

Typhoon Sinlaku lies as a low pressure area in the Pacific, 450 Kms east of Palau Island and 800 Kms SW of Guam. Its wind speeds are 35-40 Kmph presently.

VIETNAM FACES A THREAT FROM TYPHOON SINLAKU ON SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2014

Bay of Bengal Update: Nov 6, 2014: Cyclone ASHOBAA Coming ON November 13 To Andhra: Present Depression Will Fizzle Out

Things have become clear now. Two computer models support that Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Indian coast of Andhra Pradesh on November 13, 2014. The present much vaunted depression in the bay will fizzle out in 2-3 days.

It is certain now that the depression is just a trailer to the real thing. The Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Andhra coast on November 13, The present depression will weaken into a low pressure area and dissipate. May be some showers on the Andhra-Odisha coast. 

But the cyclone, the real thing will come in another week's time. Future cyclone Ashobaa is already a low pressure area in the South China Sea. On November 10 it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and start strengthening. It may well turn into a cyclone by the time it moves over the Andaman Islands on November 11. [Or a deep depression]'

After that it will start intensifying rapidly and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast and hit it ferociously on November 13, 2014. As to its intensity. The GFS model says it will be a big storm. The ECMWF model largely supports it. At least a deep depression. So lots of winds and heavy precipitation is likely in Andhra Pradesh on November 13-14.

This forecast is supported by two major reliable computer models. Hence we are largely certain that that is how things will pan out.

Look out, Andhra! Cyclone Ashobaa is coming.

The situation on Nov 10. The present depression dies out lamely near the Andhra coast. Meanwhile the robust system crosses over into the Bay from Gulf of Thailand. That is cyclone Ashobaa

Big Confusion About Bay of Upcoming Bengal Storm: Forecast Models Differ

There is total confusion about the expected cyclone Ashobaa in the Bay of Bengal this November.

The JTWC says the storm [5B] has formed already and will hit the Andhra coast on November 9. The IMD confirms the formation of a depression but keeps mum as to about its future.

The GFS forecast says the present depression will weaken and fizzle out and bring some rainfall to the Andhra coast. It further says  cyclone Ashobaa will form days later. A low pressure area from the South China Sea which will intensify into a cyclone. A big cyclone that will hit Visakhapatnam on November 12-13.

The Canadian CMC model  says the present depression will move close to the Andhra coast bring some rains then intensify rapidly, swing away into the sea and hit South-East Bangladesh on Monday, November 11.

The US Navy's NAVGEM model says two low pressure areas will hit the Andhra-Odisha coast. One on November 9th. The second on November 12. No cyclone. Two low pressure areas.

In other words the Bay of Bengal has all meteorologists totally flummoxed. Computer forecast models differ wildly in what is going to happen. We shall watch the emerging situation carefully and give you the latest updates on the upcoming Bay of Bengal storm.

Cyclone ASHOBAA Is Coming! Target Andhra Coast November 7, 2014: Prakasam, Nellore Districts

After Hudhud another cyclone may threaten the Andhra coast. Cyclone Ashobaa. It is likely to be born near the Andaman coast on November 4 and slowly intensify into a tropical storm.

Cyclone Ashobaa will strike the Andhra coast at the Prakasam and Nellore districts on November 7, 2014.

Ashobaa is not going to be another Hudhud with 215 Kph winds. The winds are likely to be around 100 Kph. That has considerable damage potential. And also it is early days and we talk now on the basis of present forecasts. With cyclones one never knows.

We will keep you updated.

UPDATE: LATEST FORECAST SAYS CYCLONE HUDHUD WILL HIT ANDHRA COAST

Earlier we had said that upcoming cyclone Hudhud would make landfall at Orissa on October 11, 2014.

But latest forecasts say Hudhud's target has changed. Instead of Orissa, it is going to be the Andhra coast where the cyclone will strike on October 11, 2014.

Initially the system will remain depression but intensify into a cyclone as it approaches the Andhra coast.

We guess, IMD is not going to honor the storm with a name for a few more days.

Keep in touch for the latest updates.

Here is the latest forecasted path of HUDHUD

Read More

• 
  
• Cyclone HUDHUD Might Turn Out To Be Quite A Big Storm
• #CycloneHudhud Will Rapidly Intensify in 24 Hours After It Crosses Andaman Islands
• Cyclone Hudhud Has Formed in The Bay of Bengal: Will Hit Orissa Coast on October 11, 2014
• Is Cyclone HUDHUD Coming Soon To Bay of Bengal?

TROPICAL CYCLONE 'HUDHUD' TO HIT ORISSA (INDIA) ON OCTOBER 11, 2014

We had predicted a few days ago that the Bay of Bengal was going to throw up a cyclone in the next few days.

It has happened.

Cyclone 'Hudhud' has already taken birth. As a low pressure area.

Within the next six days it will grow up into cyclone HUDHUD.

Latest forecasts say it will hit the eastern coast of India at Orissa. But we can cannot say for certain where it is going to make landfall. Andhra or West Bengal in India. Or Bangladesh?

It will make landfall on October 11, 2014.

It is to be seen how strong the storm turns out to be.

Forecast Map: Cyclone Hudhud as seen on October 7, 2014. It is moving towards India

Expected Path of Cyclone Hudhud

Is Tropical Cyclone "HUDHUD" Coming In The Bay Of Bengal Soon?

Cyclone HUDHUD as seen on October 11, 2014

It has become quite hot in many parts of India lately. The temperatures are rising at many places and are expected to be 40 C in a few days.

Such a spell of hot weather in October means something is going to happen. And yes, there is a likelihood that the next storm in the North Indian Ocean is going to be born in a day or two.

Cyclone 'HUDHUD' may be coming soon. In the Bay of Bengal.

Forecasts support this possibility. I have been observing since the last few days that a low pressure was likely to form in the Bay. Only when the models predicted that a storm may be in the offing that I write these words.

The low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal will form tomorrow near the Malaysian coast. The system will then slowly gain strength and move to the east Indian coast for the next few days. By then it will have turned into a tropical cyclone and is expected to hit Orissa on October 12, 2014.

I don't say that Hudhud is going to be another Phanfone but it will be no mean storm.

It is early days and anything can happen.

The name "Hudhud" has been given by Oman. An Arabic word that means "to lull" or "to rock" (a baby to sleep). Cyclone Hudhud is certainly not going to lull anyone to sleep.

Cyclone Hudhud about to touch Orissa on 12/10/2014

Tropical Storm "Phanfone" Has Formed: Will Intensify And Move Towards Japan

This satellite picture taken at 0600 Hrs, Sept. 27, 2014 shows 'Kammuri' nearing Japan and the area where 'Phanfone'was born

As 'Kammuri' moves towards Japan, another typhoon has formed in the Pacific. Phanfone.

The JTWC confirms the birth of the storm.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 166.5E TO 8.6N 160.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Phanfone will intensify and move towards Japan in the coming days. present forecasts say that it will near Japan till the 5th of October, 2014, than weaken and move away from the coast.

"Phanfone"means "animal" in Laotian. Let us see how much of a beast it turns out to be.

Update September 28, 2014, 0230 PM GMT: Typhoon Phanfone will hit Taiwan on October 5, 2014 according to latest forecasts.

XWF FORECAST PATH: Expected path of Typhoon Phanfone from now to Ocober 6, 2014

Tropical Storm "Kammuri" Update: September 27, 2014: Typhoon Will Pass By Japan On Sept. 29, 2014

Infra-Red satellite image of Typhoon Kammuri taken at 0300 Hrs, September 27, 2014

Japan is fortunate. Just a few days there was a real possibility that two typhoons would strike it one after another. But things have changed. Typhoon Kammuri which is hovering around in the Pacific now is not going to strike Japan but pass it by on September 29, 2014.

Typhoon Phanfone which is being spawned right now in the Pacific, will also by-pass Japan in early October. But that we leave for later.

Expected path of Kammuri: From today till September 29, 2014

MET OFFICE PREDICTS THE PATH OF 'KAMMURI'
       GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2014

 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI    ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 145.7E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 27.09.2014  24.8N 145.7E   MODERATE

 12UTC 27.09.2014  27.3N 144.5E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 28.09.2014  30.1N 143.3E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 28.09.2014  32.1N 144.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 29.09.2014  33.4N 146.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.09.2014  35.7N 149.9E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.09.2014  39.0N 156.4E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 30.09.2014  41.3N 164.4E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.10.2014  41.0N 172.1E   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 01.10.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

XWF WEATHER FORECAST MAP: Typhoon "Phanfone" moves past Japan on October 5, 2015

FUTURE STORMS: Typhoon"KAMMURI" Will Hit Taiwan And East China In Early October, 2014

XWF FORECAST MAP: October 2, 2014. Typhoon Kammuri gains strength and moves west towards China

The Western Pacific is in ferment. It is churning out typhoons every couple of days. After Kalmaegi, tropical cyclone Fung-wong has already formed (It is a low pressure area now) and will hit Japan on September 21, 2014.

After that Tropical Cyclone KAMMURI will form north east of Philippines as a humble low pressure area on September 27, 2014. It will not go to either Philippines or Japan but will gain momentum, move west pass pelt melt over Taiwan and then slam into the Chinese coast north of Hongkong.

FUTURE STORMS: Typhoon FUNG-WONG Is Forming Now (96W): Will Hit Japan September 21, 2014

Expected Path of Tropical Cyclone Fung-wong

As Tropical Storm Kalmaegi dissipates over Vietnam, another typhoon has already been spawned. A low pressure has formed east of Philippines. It has been termed 96W. The JTWC calls it WTPN 21.  In the next few days it will intensify into a tropical storm. Fung-won is coming.

The system will not hit Philippines. It will move towards northern Philippines initially as it gains strength, but will veer away northwards towards in a day or two. It will be a low pressure area or a tropical depression then.

On the 20th of September it will turn into tropical storm Fung-wong. It will slam into Japan at the east coast on 21st September, 2014.

XWF FORECAST MAPS: Fung-won moving past northern Philippines as a tropical depression on 19/9/2014

XWF FORECAST MAPS: Fung-wong hits central Japan on 21/9/2014

Point of impact

READ MORE ON TYPHOON FUNG-WONG

Kalmaegi will be slightly weaker than expected.

Satellite image of Typhoon Kalmaegi, which is brewing east of Philippines. Time 0300 HRS GMT September 12, 2014.

JTWC has confirmed what we had predicted yesterday. It says it is going to hit Guangdong province of China after moving over north Philippines on September 17, 2014 noon local time.

It also says the typhoon is going to be weaker than expected. When it hits the Chinese coast winds will be around 150 kph.Even that is nothing to sneeze at. It can wreak havoc. Also there is still time. And storms are by nature very unpredictable. Who knows. The Hainan authorities will have to be fully prepared.

Also Typhoon Kalmaegi is going to hit southern Guangdong province in the solar plexus. Hainan island is not the epicenter. Leizhou and Wushi will bear the brunt.

Moreover the typhoon is going pass the strip of Chinese territory and move into Gulf of Tonking and hit Vietnam at Haiphong on September 17, 2014 evening.

The expected typhoon may turn out to be weaker (By US standards it will be a Category 2 storm) but it is going to bring very heavy rains to all the countries it will pass through. A glance at the rainfall prediction maps says it all.

Category	Wind speeds
Five	≥70 m/s, ≥137 knots ≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h
Four	58–70 m/s, 113–136 knots 130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h
Three	50–58 m/s, 96–112 knots 111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h
Two	43–49 m/s, 83–95 knots 96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h
One	33–42 m/s, 64–82 knots 74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h

This is how tropical storms are categorized by wind speeds in the US

XWF Rainfall Forecast Map in Philippines on September 14, 2014 owing to Kalmaegi

Expected rains in China owing to Kalmaegi

Kalmaegi will be bring torrential rains to Vietnam on September 17, 2014 evening.

A VIDEO (SEPTEMBER 9, 2014) ABOUT KALMAEGI (WE DO NOT FULLY AGREE WITH ITS PREDICTIONS) Source: Westernpacificweather

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