There is total confusion about the expected cyclone Ashobaa in the Bay of Bengal this November.
The JTWC says the storm [5B] has formed already and will hit the Andhra coast on November 9. The IMD confirms the formation of a depression but keeps mum as to about its future.
The GFS forecast says the present depression will weaken and fizzle out and bring some rainfall to the Andhra coast. It further says cyclone Ashobaa will form days later. A low pressure area from the South China Sea which will intensify into a cyclone. A big cyclone that will hit Visakhapatnam on November 12-13.
The Canadian CMC model says the present depression will move close to the Andhra coast bring some rains then intensify rapidly, swing away into the sea and hit South-East Bangladesh on Monday, November 11.
The US Navy's NAVGEM model says two low pressure areas will hit the Andhra-Odisha coast. One on November 9th. The second on November 12. No cyclone. Two low pressure areas.
In other words the Bay of Bengal has all meteorologists totally flummoxed. Computer forecast models differ wildly in what is going to happen. We shall watch the emerging situation carefully and give you the latest updates on the upcoming Bay of Bengal storm.
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