Tropical Storm DIAMMU Brewing In South China Sea

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Tropical storm DIAMMU is imminent in the South China Sea south of Hong Kong-Macau coast of Guangdong province coast of China.

It is a low pressure area presently. NOAA calls it Invest 95W.

By tomorrow it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone.

It will move west through Haikou, Hainan island on Thursday and enter the Gulf of Tonkin.

It will make landfall into northern Vietnam on Friday, August 19, 2016, with winds of 80-100 km/h. But latest forecast says it might be 140-150 km/h winds as the typhoon is expected to intensify rapidly before hitting Vietnam. A central minimum pressure of 970 hPa. Powerful storm.

It will weaken into a persistent low pressure area as it moves through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar. It will reach Indian Northeast and Bangladesh on August 21-22.

Update 3: Typhoon NIDA Passing Through Luzon, Target Hong Kong

JULY 31, 2016, 0630 GMT

Tropical cyclone NIDA is presently passing through the northern part of Luzon, Philippines.

Wind speed 110 km/h, gusts 130 km/h. Location is about 400 kilometres north east of Manila.

It will leave Philippines and head into the South China Sea in the next 12 hours. It will intensify as it moves through the sea.

It is expected to hit the Chinese coast at Hong Kong on August 2, 2016 noon local time. Winds expected at impact : 100-110 km/h, gusts 130 km/h.

The European forecast model ECMWF expects landfall a further 100 kilometres north along the Guangdong coast at Danshui and Jhanwei.

Rain radar shows heavy precipitation in Luzon as typhoon NIDA passes.

Typhoon NIDA, Update 2: Tropical Depression Now, 650 East of Manila

JULY 30, 2016

Future typhoon NIDA is a tropical depression now. Wind speeds of 50-55 km/h. About 650 kilometres east of Manila. Central minimum pressure:1000 Mb.

The system is intensifying all the time. It will be soon officially named NIDA. The eye of the typhoon will pass close by the northern tip of Luzon on August 1, 2016. Winds of 100-120 km/h will lash northern Luzon when the tropical cyclone passes by. Heavy rains expected in northern Philippines in next 72 hours.

The typhoon will intensify further as it enters the South China Sea. NIDA will make landfall into Guangdong province of China at Hong Kong on August 2, 2016, evening local time. Expected winds at Impact are 130km/h gusts upto 160 km/h.

As typhoon NIDA intensifies, it it is raining in many parts of Philippines, including Manila.

Gujarat, Sindh Still Waiting For Rains

JULY 27, 2016

Half of the monsoon 2016 season has gone yet Gujarat and Sindh are still waiting for the rain gods. Neighbouring Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and most parts of Rajasthan have received good rainfall till now but due to the quirks of nature except for Dang and Amreli districts, Gujarat has been left mainly high and dry.

Looking forward, good rains are expected in central and north Gujarat on July 27-29. There might light showers in the rest of the state.

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"La Nina event, which affects rainfall and temperatures in the tropics, may develop in the third quarter of the year but it is likely to be weak and far less intense than El Nino that ended in May"

--World Meteorological Organisation 

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The next hope is the expected cyclonic circulation that is expected to form over the state around August 3. It will arise in northern Madhya Pradesh on August 2 and then drift over to north Gujarat on August 3. It is likely to hover over the region for days. It may bring good rains to north Gujarat and the parched Kutch region. Even Sindh may receive good precipitation then.

The GFS forecast model is forecasting the formation of a strong low pressure area off the Andhra-Odisha coast on August 6, 2016. It further says the system will cut through Andhra, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat around August 9 bringing heavy rains everywhere.

The European model ECMWF expects the system to form earlier, on August 2, near the Myanmar coast. It says it will then intensify into a depression/deep depression by the time reaches the Odisha coast on August 3-4, and knock on Vidarbha's door by August 6. Powerful system.

Looks like the monsoon is really going to change gears in August. La Niña effect?

But 10 days is a long time in weather forecasting. Let us wait and observe.

UPDATE JULY 28

Hardly 24 hours have passed and the GFS is having doubts about the expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area. Our advice would be take GFS forecasts with a big pinch of salt. The good news is the European model persists with the forecast of an intensification of monsoon activity from August 2. Good rains are expected in dry Kutch-Sindh region around August 4-5.

As the cyclonic circulation gives rain to Kutch on August 4, the much bigger monster system grows in the Bay of Bengal.

GFS believes this system will enter Andhra-Odisha on August 5-6, other models predict an earlier entry

Typhoon NIDA Threatens Philippines, China

JULY 25, 2016

After super typhoon NEPARTAK, a weak LUPIT, and the presently brewing tropical cyclone MIRINAE which threatens Hainan and northern Vietnam yet another tropical cyclone is imminent in western Pacific Ocean. NIDA  is likely to affect Luzon in Philippines and mainland China in the coming days.

NIDA  will be born on July 30 as a low pressure area a few hundred kilometres east of central Philippines. It will intensify into a deep depression by the time it moves through Luzon on July 31, 2016. It being at best a deep depression or a weak tropical storm when it passes Philippines, the country will face weak winds of about 60-70 km/h at most. But there will be very heavy precipitation in Luzon.

It will rapidly intensify into a powerful typhoon as it moves through the South China Sea and hit China at Hong Kong or Macau in Guangdong province on August 2-3, 2016.

The European forecast model ECMWF estimates the storm will have a central minimum pressure of 978 hPa. Quite a powerful typhoon. Winds of over 120-130 km/h expected.

It being early days as the storm is yet to be spawned, we will give real time updates as to track and intensity.

UPDATE: JULY 26, 2016

Later data from forecast models say typhoon NIDA may hit China at Zhanjiang in southern Guangdong province that is at an area much further south from Hong Kong. Some models are suggesting a hit on Taiwan. The situation is confusing at present. We shall continue giving you updates. Keep in touch.

UPDATE: JULY 27, 2016

PHILIPPINES STARES AT A TYPHOON (NIDA)

Contrary to earlier forecasts, typhoon NIDA is going to intensify into a tropical cyclone and not a mere depression by the time it reaches Luzon, Philippines, on July 31.

Please keep in touch for latest updates.

JULY 28, 2016

Future typhoon NIDA has been born. It is called 96W. It lies about 350-400 east of Mindanao, Philippines. Central pressure is 1007 Mb. See figure below. In the next 2-3 days it will intensify and move in a NW direction and pass through Luzon on July 31. Latest forecasts say it will hit the Chinese coast at Hong Kong-Macau on August 2-3.

This latest satellite image shows MIRINAE dissipating after landfall into Vietnam and NIDA growing up east of Philippines.