As DIAMMU Enters Vietnam, Rains In Madhya Pradesh Till Sunday

AUGUST 19, 2016, FRIDAY 

Talking of significant developments, tropical storm DIAMMU is entering northern Vietnam as we write. It turned out weaken than was earlier expected. About 75 km/h winds on impact. 

Nevertheless it will traverse through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and reach Bangladesh on Sunday. It will move past West Bengal, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and reach Gujarat on August 24, 2016.

Meanwhile the low pressure area over Jharkhand-eastern Uttar Pradesh is moving into Madhya Pradesh. Expect very heavy rains in some parts of the state till Monday. Bhopal, Indore. There might be showers in parts of eastern Gujarat, southeast Rajasthan on Sunday owing to the system. 

The GFS model foresees rains in parts of eastern and northern India in the coming fortnight. The western parts of the country will remain rainless (except for the DIAMMU effect). An early departure of a weak monsoon?

By the month end one can expect a storm system developing in the Bay of Bengal. Let us see. The Arabian Sea has been unnaturally inactive this year. Weird.

HOTSPOTS NOW

Tropical Storm DIAMMU Brewing In South China Sea

AUGUST 17, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Tropical storm DIAMMU is imminent in the South China Sea south of Hong Kong-Macau coast of Guangdong province coast of China.

It is a low pressure area presently. NOAA calls it Invest 95W.

By tomorrow it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone.

It will move west through Haikou, Hainan island on Thursday and enter the Gulf of Tonkin.

It will make landfall into northern Vietnam on Friday, August 19, 2016, with winds of 80-100 km/h. But latest forecast says it might be 140-150 km/h winds as the typhoon is expected to intensify rapidly before hitting Vietnam. A central minimum pressure of 970 hPa. Powerful storm.

It will weaken into a persistent low pressure area as it moves through Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar. It will reach Indian Northeast and Bangladesh on August 21-22.

Two Storms In West Pacific Soon? CHANTHU, DIAMMU Coming?

AUGUST 10, 2016

Forecast models are giving confusing signals of the possibility of two or three tropical cyclones to form in the west Pacific, South China Sea area in the coming days. Alarming times for Philippines, Vietnam, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan.

We had predicted the possibility of typhoon CHANTHU forming in the coming days in the South China Sea and causing a hazard to China.

Well it seems, two tropical cyclones are likely in the region, not one. First CHANTHU, then DIAMMU.

Tropical storm CHANTHU may form first in the Gulf of Tonkin soon. It is likely to intensify rapidly and hit the Haiphong coast of Vietnam on August 15.

Tropical cyclone DIAMMU will form on August 15 in the South China Sea off the Philippines coast. It is expected to turn into a typhoon and hit the coast of Guangdong, China in the Hong Kong-Macau belt around August 18, 2016.

The situation is nebulous at present. Different forecast models are saying different things. For instance, the GFS forecast model predicts a powerful typhoon affecting Philippines, Taiwan around August 20.

Things will become clearer in the coming days.

UPDATE: AUGUST 11, 2016

Something is going to come up soon in the Gulf of Tonkin off the Vietnam coast. A low pressure area is likely to be spawned on August 14, which in a few days might intensify into a tropical cyclone by August 18-19.

There is also a possibility of a strong typhoon hitting Taiwan on August 20, 2016. This may form many hundreds of kilometres north of Guam on August 16.

Tropical Storm MIRINAE To Hit Hainan, China, Northern Vietnam Soon

JULY 27, 2016, 0230 GMT 

MIRINAE has crossed Chinese island of Hainan and is in the sea at present. Wind speed is about 70-75 km/h. It will make landfall into Vietnam by 1800 hours GMT, today. The storm has weakened to a tropical depression but it is expected to intensify a little before it crosses the Vietnamese coast.

The track forecast map below is in JST (Japanese Standard Time), GMT +9.

JULY 26, 2016, 0630 GMT

This storm, tropical depression 05W, came up suddenly. It lies a few hundred kilometres southeast of Hainan island of China. It is intensifying and will turn into tropical storm  MIRINAE.

It is expected to hit Hainan island of China in the next 24 hours, that is on July 27. After moving past the Chinese island province, MIRINAE will further intensify and make landfall into the northern Vietnam-China border area on July 28, 2016. Hanoi will receive heavy rains with strong winds on Thursday.

All said and done, MIRINAE will be a little storm. Wind speeds of 60-70 km/h but a big rainmaker.

5W is intensifying at present. It should be christened in another 12 hours. By then it will be throwing out winds in excess of 65 km/h. The European model ECMWF expects it to reach a central minimum pressure of 981 hPa on July 28 before it hits Vietnam. Quite a powerful storm, if this forecast model is to be believed.

Depression 99W Heading To Philippines: May Turn Into A Tropical Storm: Heavy Rains Heading To Vietnam Too.

Update: December 27, 2014

India is not the only country that's staring at a depression. Depression 99W is heading Philippines' way. It is likely to reach it in the next 48 hours.

Heavy rains and flooding is what the Philippines is going to experience as the tropical depression 99W heads for it. The storm is going to affect central Philippines the most. The Visayas the most. Unfortunate Tacloban is in for heavy rains and some gusts in the next two days.

The depression will move through Philippines and emerge into warm waters of the South China Sea on December 31, 2014. That is when it is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm 'Jangmi'. It will then move towards southern Vietnam weakening before landfall on January 2, 2015. 

Jangmi will be a small cyclone with a central pressure of 997. It will be at its strongest as it moves across the South China Sea. Winds will not be the major problem for Vietnam as the heavy rains. Expect a deluge in the southern part of the country in early January.

See Rain Forecast Maps

The Expected System Will At Best Be A Depression:Heay Rains Likely In Philippines, Vietnam In Next 15 Days

Update: December 10, 2014

The  system (96W) that has formed in the Pacific near Palau Island will not intensify into a significant tropical storm. It is likely to remain a low pressure area or a depression.

Update: December 9, 2014

There is another tropical storm coming  to Philippines. On December 13, 2014.

NOAA has taken note of this imminent storm. It calls it 96W (See Track). Presently it lies about 1100 kms ESE of Palau in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm JANGMI will form on December 11, and move to Philippines intensifying as it does so. It will move through central Philippines from December 13-14 and then enter the South China Sea. When it travels across the country the winds will be in excess of 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. For a country that is reeling under the impact of super typhoon Hagupit, this is bad news.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify again in the warm  South China Sea and go on to hit central Vietnam (almost the same area where Hagupit is going to impact on Thursday) on December 15, 2014, Monday.

In short, it is double whammy for Vietnam in the coming few days.

Read: Hagupit Threat to Vietnam

UPDATE: December 8, 2014

Later forecasts have predicted that the chances of a significant tropical storm forming in the next one week in western Pacific are remote. Hence Jangmi will not form now.

But Hagupit is coming to Vietnam on December 12 morning (Vietnam Time). A minor storm with winds of 65-85 kph.

UPDATE: December 7, 2014

Hagupit Will Intensify again a little as it enters the South China Sea on Tuesday. It will hit south Vietnam on December 11, 2014, albeit as a weak storm. Another smaller typhoon JANGMI will follow Hagupit in a few days.

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph.

The formation of Jangmi is supported by the GFS and Gem models. It will be a depression when it enters central Philippines on December 14, 2014. But once it enters the South China Sea, it will gain typhoon status and go on to hit Vietnam on December 16-17.

December 14, 2014: Tropical Storm JANGMI En Route To Vietnam

Typhoon SINLAKU UPDATE: November 29, 2014: Stronger Than Expected: Turn Into 120-150 Kmph Storm Today Evening

UPDATE NOVEMBER 29, 2014

Typhoon Sinlaku will turn out nastier than earlier expected. By today evening it will be howling with winds of 120-150 Kmph as it nears the coast of Vietnam. It will make landfall tonight at the Phu Yen province of the country. The winds will drop slightly when it hits the country.

Even Kampuchea will have 45-65 Kmph winds tomorrow evening (Sunday) as the weakened storm moves into the country.

VIDEO: THIS IS HOW SINLAKU WILL MOVE

INFRA RED IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM "SINLAKU" AT 0330 HRS UTC TODAY

TRACK OF TYPHOON SINLAKU

UPDATE NOVEMBER 28, 2014

The storm has entered the South China Sea after passing Philippines and is officially Typhoon SINLAKU. Wind speed now is 60-70 Kmph. In the next 36 hours it is rapidly going to strengthen into a 90-120 Kmph storm. On Saturday evening (Vietnam time) it will hit the coast of Vietnam with winds of 85 Kmph (Gust of 100 Kmph) in Binh Dinh and Quang Ngai provinces. The town of Tam Ky will be worst hit.

XWF FORECAST MAP: NOVEMBER 29 SATURDAY. SINLAKU ABOUT TO HIT VIETNAM.

UPDATE NOVEMBER 27, 2014

The depression weakened a little as it passed Negros, Cebu and Bohol islands of Philippines. It is expected to intensify again as it passes Palawan and enters the South China Sea.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF FUTURE STORM SINLAKU AS IT CROSSES PHILIPPINES. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY

UPDATE NOVEMBER 26, 2014

The JTWC has recognised the emerging typhoon Sinlaku. In its latest bulletin it calls it Tropical Depression 21W. The JTWC forecast largely agrees with what we have been predicting in the last few days. The typhoon will intensify after leaving Philippines, In fact while it will be passing over Palawan Island of the country. Winds then , tomorrow evening, will be 65 Kmph, gusting to 95 kmph. Vietnam is going to be battered with 90 kmph wind gusts up to 130 kmph on Saturday, November 29. Point of impact is Nha Trang.

THE JTWC FORECAST SUPPORTS WHAT WE HAD PREDICTED

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014:

The JTWC in it's latest bulletin has confirmed the formation of typhoon Sinlaku.

Vietnam is in for it. Big typhoon Sinlaku is going to hit it on Saturday, November 29, 2014. The system has reached central Philippines and heavy rains have started there. It is a depression now with winds of 45 Kmph. But come tomorrow it will turn into Sinlaku typhoon as it leaves Philippines in the Sulu Sea. By the time it hits Vietnam it will have winds of  80-100 Kmph.

NOV 29, 2014: TYPHOON SINLAKU ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL VIETNAM

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014

The low pressure area lies near Palau Islands presently, latitude 7 degrees north, longitude 134. 3 degrees east  with wind speed of 25-30 Kmph. Tomorrow it will reach Philippines at Mindanao Island and cross it. Heavy rains are expected there in the 24 hours after that.

The low pressure will rapidly intensify into a cyclone after it crosses over to the South China Sea. Typhoon Sinlaku will hit Vietnam near Nha Trang on Saturday, November 29, 2014 with wind speeds of 65-85 Kmph.

Forecast Flash: Typhoon HAGUPIT might soon follow Sinlaku. "Hagupit" may hit central Philippines on December 2, 2014.

Infra-Red satellite image of the low pressure taken at  0400 GMT today

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XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: TYPHOON SINLAKU (NENENG) WILL HIT CENTRAL PHILIPPINES ON NOVEMBER 26, 2014

Powerful Typhoon "Sinlaku" (Neneng) Will Hit Central Philippines On Wednesday (November 26, 2014) with winds of 100+ Kmph. The storm will then move on to Vietnam on Sunday.

Sinlaku will form just a few hundred kilometers east of Philippines tomorrow. It will then rapidly intensify and hit the country on Wednesday. The islands of Western and Eastern Visaya will be worst hit. Central Visaya, Bikol, Caraga and Nimiropa provinces will be badly hit too. The typhoon will cross over into South China Sea and make landfall in central Vietnam's Binh Dinh province.

Typhoon Sinlaku lies as a low pressure area in the Pacific, 450 Kms east of Palau Island and 800 Kms SW of Guam. Its wind speeds are 35-40 Kmph presently.

VIETNAM FACES A THREAT FROM TYPHOON SINLAKU ON SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2014

Latest satellite image of Typhoon Kalmaegi: 0000 hrs September 16, 2014

 KALMAEGI AS IT MOVES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

THE STORM APPRAOCHES HAINAN ISLAND

TYPHOON KALMAEGI UPDATE SEPT. 15, 2014, 0430 HRS GMT. Gaining Strength, Wll Hit China Tomorrow Noon, Vietnam Tomorrow Night

Kalamegi is a fast moving storm. It has moved on from the Philippines and now is gathering power in

 the South China Sea.

Earlier we had said that it would hit the area around Zhanjiang in China; But Kalmaegi seems to have changed its mind. It will hit China further south.The eye of the storm will move between Hainan Island and southern tip of Guangdong province tomorrow (Sept. 16, 2014 Noon, Local Time).

Twelve hours after that, (September 16, 2014 night) it will hit Vietnam at Haiphong.

As for the expected rainfall. Hainan Island of China and Northern Vietnam will see a deluge and consequent flooding.

Satellite Image fo Typhoon KALMAEGI taken at 0300 Hrs, September 15, 2014

 XWF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: Hainan Island will get maximum rainfall from Typhoon Kalmaegi

XWF RAIN PREDICTION MAP: North Vietnam Will See Flooding on September 16-17 owing to KALMAEGI

LATEST KALMAEGI UPDATE: Typhoon Will Hit Philippines With Winds of 160 Kph Today Night

Latest satellite image (0300 Hrs GMT September 14, 2014) of Kalmaegi

Cyclone Kalmaegi approaches North Philippines with howling winds and torrential downpours. It will make landfall tomorrow night (local time), that the night of September 14, 2014. Winds will be in excess of 150 kph. Wave surge will be 10-12 meters or even more. The Batanes islands will be worst hit.

Kalmaegi will weaken as it passes over northern Philippines but will strengthen again as it enters South China Sea. It will hit the southern neck of Guangdong province on September 16, 2014, late night. Worst hit be the city of Zhanjiang which will see winds of 130 kph.

The typhoon will then move along the coastal areas of China in the Gulf of Tonkin and enter the area of border of Vietnam and China on the 17th of September. Though the winds will be less but the rains will be very heavy in North Vietnam.

Latest projected path of Kalmaegi according to JTWC.

 Kalmaegi will strengthen again in the South China Sea. This is the forecasted position of the typhoon on September 16, 0000 hrs GMT.

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 Northern Philippines coast will see waves surge by 12 meters.

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Total rainfall owing to Kalmaegi forecasted from now till September 18, 2014. The white patches show heaviest precipitation.

SIDELIGHTS: THIS LADY TAIWANESE FORECASTER HAS GOT IT RIGHT!

THIS VIETNAMESE WEATHERGIRL WARNS ABOUT KALMAEGI

Kalmaegi will be slightly weaker than expected.

Satellite image of Typhoon Kalmaegi, which is brewing east of Philippines. Time 0300 HRS GMT September 12, 2014.

JTWC has confirmed what we had predicted yesterday. It says it is going to hit Guangdong province of China after moving over north Philippines on September 17, 2014 noon local time.

It also says the typhoon is going to be weaker than expected. When it hits the Chinese coast winds will be around 150 kph.Even that is nothing to sneeze at. It can wreak havoc. Also there is still time. And storms are by nature very unpredictable. Who knows. The Hainan authorities will have to be fully prepared.

Also Typhoon Kalmaegi is going to hit southern Guangdong province in the solar plexus. Hainan island is not the epicenter. Leizhou and Wushi will bear the brunt.

Moreover the typhoon is going pass the strip of Chinese territory and move into Gulf of Tonking and hit Vietnam at Haiphong on September 17, 2014 evening.

The expected typhoon may turn out to be weaker (By US standards it will be a Category 2 storm) but it is going to bring very heavy rains to all the countries it will pass through. A glance at the rainfall prediction maps says it all.

Category	Wind speeds
Five	≥70 m/s, ≥137 knots ≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h
Four	58–70 m/s, 113–136 knots 130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h
Three	50–58 m/s, 96–112 knots 111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h
Two	43–49 m/s, 83–95 knots 96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h
One	33–42 m/s, 64–82 knots 74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h

This is how tropical storms are categorized by wind speeds in the US

XWF Rainfall Forecast Map in Philippines on September 14, 2014 owing to Kalmaegi

Expected rains in China owing to Kalmaegi

Kalmaegi will be bring torrential rains to Vietnam on September 17, 2014 evening.

A VIDEO (SEPTEMBER 9, 2014) ABOUT KALMAEGI (WE DO NOT FULLY AGREE WITH ITS PREDICTIONS) Source: Westernpacificweather

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