JULY 27, 2016
Half of the monsoon 2016 season has gone yet Gujarat and Sindh are still waiting for the rain gods. Neighbouring Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and most parts of Rajasthan have received good rainfall till now but due to the quirks of nature except for Dang and Amreli districts, Gujarat has been left mainly high and dry.
Looking forward, good rains are expected in central and north Gujarat on July 27-29. There might light showers in the rest of the state.
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"La Nina event, which affects rainfall and temperatures in the tropics, may develop in the third quarter of the year but it is likely to be weak and far less intense than El Nino that ended in May"
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The next hope is the expected cyclonic circulation that is expected to form over the state around August 3. It will arise in northern Madhya Pradesh on August 2 and then drift over to north Gujarat on August 3. It is likely to hover over the region for days. It may bring good rains to north Gujarat and the parched Kutch region. Even Sindh may receive good precipitation then.
The GFS forecast model is forecasting the formation of a strong low pressure area off the Andhra-Odisha coast on August 6, 2016. It further says the system will cut through Andhra, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat around August 9 bringing heavy rains everywhere.
The European model ECMWF expects the system to form earlier, on August 2, near the Myanmar coast. It says it will then intensify into a depression/deep depression by the time reaches the Odisha coast on August 3-4, and knock on Vidarbha's door by August 6. Powerful system.
Looks like the monsoon is really going to change gears in August. La Niña effect?
But 10 days is a long time in weather forecasting. Let us wait and observe.
UPDATE JULY 28
Hardly 24 hours have passed and the GFS is having doubts about the expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area. Our advice would be take GFS forecasts with a big pinch of salt. The good news is the European model persists with the forecast of an intensification of monsoon activity from August 2. Good rains are expected in dry Kutch-Sindh region around August 4-5.
As the cyclonic circulation gives rain to Kutch on August 4, the much bigger monster system grows in the Bay of Bengal.
GFS believes this system will enter Andhra-Odisha on August 5-6, other models predict an earlier entry
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