Tropical storm Matthew slowly moving west in the Carribeans has forecast models pointing at different directions when the future track of this soon to be monster hurricane is concerned.
Yesterday we had hinted it could hit Miami, Florida on October 6-7, 2016. This prediction we had based on the ever reliable European model, ECMWF. Today the ECMWF is predicting a different path. It expects a direct hit on Haiti on October 5, 2016. This model further says that this storm is going to be even stronger than earlier expected. After passing Haiti, it will intensify into a category 4 monster reaching a central minimum pressure of 927 hPa. That means winds in excess of 120 knots. Possibly Bermuda is in for a royal thrashing.
But as we said earlier different forecast models are saying different things. The National Hurricane Center says Cuba is for a rendezvous with Matthew. But it remains silent on where the hurricane will go after that. Head for Florida? Or swing away into North Altlantic Ocean?
The present situation is that it could go anywhere, from states adjoining the Gulf of Mexico (seems unlikely) to a hit on Florida (less unlikely) or sailing away into the Atlantic after giving Haiti or Cuba a good hiding.
Though the official National Hurricane Center forecast predicts hurricane Matthew will move through Cuba and into the Altlantic, the threat to Florida remains. The reliable ECMWF model foresees a hit on the state. Supporting it is the NHC-LBAR model. Even the GDFL and GDFN models predict a path close to Florida.
This storm has many folks in the weather forecasting community on tenterhooks. The red line is the ECMWF prediction. The white line with red dots is the official NHC forecast.
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