August 11, 2016: Weather Forecast Update: Heavy Rains In Delhi,Jaipur,West Bengal, Jharkhand

AUGUST 11, 2016, THURSDAY

The remnants of the Rajasthan cyclonic circulation will deluge northern Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, parts of Haryana in the next 48 hours till it dissipates.

The low pressure area presently over West Bengal will weaken in the next 24 hours and then meander over northern Chattisgarh region.

Another Bay of Bengal low pressure system will develop near Odisha coast on August 15-16. Present indications are it will travel through Odisha, Chattisgarh and onto northern Madhya Pradesh by August 19.

Heavy rains in Beawar, Jaipur, Ajmer, Sikar in Rajasthan till Friday morning.

Heavy rains in Gurgaon, Haryana, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh on Friday, August 12. May continue till Saturday.

Heavy rains in parts of West Bengal till Friday morning. Rains to shift to Jharkhand (Ranchi) tomorrow.

Heavy rains in parts of Madhya Pradesh (Jabalpur, Satna, Rewa), Chattisgarh (Bilaspur) on Saturday.

Chattisgarh may face flooding situation owing to continued rains that are possible for a week ending August 18. The formation of a Bay of Bengal low pressure system on August 16 will enhance rains in the region.

RELATED: NOAA Forecast MAPS, AUGUST 11-12

This rain radar image taken at 0730 IST shows very heavy rains in Jaipur area of Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana. Good rains in Gangetic West Bengal.

August 11, 1630 IST: Raining very heavily in northern Rajasthan, Delhi. One fears flooding. Heavy rains in West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar.

Rainfall activity to be vigorous over Karnataka, Goa coast in coming days

Image credit: Political Indian 

JUNE 4, 2016

The progress of the monsoon in 2016 will be undramatic this year. No drenching depression or tropical cyclone that will propel it into India. Just slow incremental progress. A tortoise not a hare.

Update, June 6: NOAA says MJO, Madden Julian Oscillation, will become active in Indian Ocean from June 8, hence monsoon will become vigorous soon. It also says possibility of a tropical cyclone in South China Sea is receding. 

Numerical weather prediction, NWP, models have been giving out erratic, inconsistent predictions. Just yesterday the European model hinted at a depression or a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. In today's data, there is none.

After analysing data from various models we have some insight into what is going to happen on the monsoon front in the coming days.

Rainfall activity after a few days will fizzle out on the eastern coast states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Though the northeastern states will remain wet. Monsoon should enter there in a few days.

Though some models see a different future for Andhra Pradesh. According to them rainfall will remain over the state till June 10 when a low pressure area may form off the coast. The system will move through the Bay of Bengal and drench northern Myanmar/Chittagong area after a couple of days.

But this scenario is not supported by the multi-model ensemble forecast. The rainfall forecast map valid till June 9 shows significant precipitation only in Karnataka, Kerala and Indian north eastern states.

The focus of attention will be the Arabian Sea coast of India. Karnataka is going to be pounded by rains for days. Coastal Karnataka and Goa will see increasing rainfall activity. This will slowly spread to Konkan and then Mumbai.

Monsoon may knock on its door on June 13-14 along with rest of Maharashtra. Gujarat on June 18-20.

Looking at rainfall forecast maps issued by NOAA's model we can say that by June 20, the rainy season will have started in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. We are talking here of the northern limit of monsoon's progress.

Cyclone Hudhud Update: 11/10/2014: Very Strong Winds To Lash Andhra, Odisha And Chattisgarh On Sunday

Cyclone Hudhud is now only a few hundred kilometers from Visakhapatnam. Rains are already lashing coastal districts of Odisha, Andhra and West Bengal.

Now the latest expected wind speed check. Just when the storm is near Vizag, the storm will throw up the strongest winds. 200-250 Kph. This will be early morning on Sunday (12/10/2014).  Come Sunday evening and winds of 165-200 Kph will be howling through the districts of Andhra ( Visakhapatnam, Sri Kakulam, Vijayanagaram and East Godavari), Odisha (Malkangiri, Koraput, Nabarangpur). Even Chattisgarh (Dantewada and Jagdalpur) will experience winds of 120-160 Kph.

And very heavy rain everywhere. Especially in Northern Andhra, southern Orissa and parts of Chattisgarh.

It is a misconception that the storm will weaken rapidly after making landfall. It is a powerful system that is going reach Uttar Pradesh and bring rainfall there.

Headlines Today

CYCLONE HUDHUD UPDATE: How And Where Will It Affect India: Winds, Rainfall And Wave Surge

Latest forecasts say that Cyclone Hudhud is going to make landfall near Visakhapatnam on late Saturday evening. Though the winds will slightly less than feared earlier, they will be very strong. At time of impact the winds be around 190 Kph, gusting up to 230 Kph.

Another feature of this storm is that even after moving into India the winds will not subside suddenly. Even some districts of Chattisgarh will face winds of 60-80 Kph. Not to mention that heavy downpours.

Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring heavy rainfall to many parts of India. Odisha, Seemandhra, West Bengal, Chattisgarh, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

The worst affected (Wind, rainfall) districts will be as follows,

ANDHRA: East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam, Khammam
CHATTISGARH: Sukma, Dantewada, Bijapur, Bastar, Narayanpur.
ODISHA: Malkangiri, Koraput, Gajapati, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur

Waves Will Cause Sea To Enter Land For Kilometers

It happened during the 1999 super cyclone. It happened during Phailin. And it will happen within the next few days courtesy Cyclone Hudhud. Sea entering the coastal areas. Hudhud is going to whip up waves up to 12 meters along the coast at time of impact. So sea water will rush in inland, especially into low lying areas along the coast. Worst affected will be Visakhapatnam.

That is why the disaster authorities are evacuating people who live close to the coast.

Rainfall Forecast Map: Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring a lot rain to India (Map shows total precipitation till 17/10/2014)

Cyclone HUDHUD UPDATE: Vital Misconceptions In Media: It is going to be Northern Andhra (Vizag) NOT Odisha

WE would like to point out some dangerous misconceptions that the media is spreading. Not only Indian media but the international media too. About Cyclone Hudhud.

FIRST: Many media sites are saying (including BBC) that cyclone Hudhud is going to strike the  Odisha coast at Gopal-at-Sea on October 12, 2014. This is wrong. The JTWC (Their forecasts are always accurate) says the storm is going to hit the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam AND NOT Odisha. The distance between Gopal-at-Sea and Visakhapatnam is about 300 Kilometers. In disaster planning and preparedness this can make a hell of a difference.


SECOND: The BBC says winds, when the storm makes landfall, will be about 175 Kph. The JTWC in contrast (We agree with them) in its latest bulletin says the winds when Hudhud makes landfall on Saturday evening is going to be 220 Kph , GUSTING UP TO 260 kph. BBC bases its forecasts on Met Office (UK). Now the JTWC predictions are any day more trustworthy than that of the Met Office.

THIRD: Most media, including the BBC and IMD say that the cyclone is going to make landfall on Sunday (October 12, 2014) morning. The JTWC says the storm will hit the Andhra coast on Saturday evening. Just 50 hours left.

We think the confusion should be cleared at the earliest. The Andhra and Chattisgarh (It is going to see very heavy rains) governments should spring into action at the earliest (Just as the Odisha government is at maximum alert).

The danger is to Northern Andhra and Chattisgarh is as much as it is to Odisha (if not more).

People, please wake up. There are just 48 hours left.