The progress of the monsoon in 2016 will be undramatic this year. No drenching depression or tropical cyclone that will propel it into India. Just slow incremental progress. A tortoise not a hare.
Update, June 6: NOAA says MJO, Madden Julian Oscillation, will become active in Indian Ocean from June 8, hence monsoon will become vigorous soon. It also says possibility of a tropical cyclone in South China Sea is receding.
Numerical weather prediction, NWP, models have been giving out erratic, inconsistent predictions. Just yesterday the European model hinted at a depression or a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. In today's data, there is none.
After analysing data from various models we have some insight into what is going to happen on the monsoon front in the coming days.
Rainfall activity after a few days will fizzle out on the eastern coast states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Though the northeastern states will remain wet. Monsoon should enter there in a few days.
Though some models see a different future for Andhra Pradesh. According to them rainfall will remain over the state till June 10 when a low pressure area may form off the coast. The system will move through the Bay of Bengal and drench northern Myanmar/Chittagong area after a couple of days.
But this scenario is not supported by the multi-model ensemble forecast. The rainfall forecast map valid till June 9 shows significant precipitation only in Karnataka, Kerala and Indian north eastern states.
The focus of attention will be the Arabian Sea coast of India. Karnataka is going to be pounded by rains for days. Coastal Karnataka and Goa will see increasing rainfall activity. This will slowly spread to Konkan and then Mumbai.
Monsoon may knock on its door on June 13-14 along with rest of Maharashtra. Gujarat on June 18-20.
Looking at rainfall forecast maps issued by NOAA's model we can say that by June 20, the rainy season will have started in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. We are talking here of the northern limit of monsoon's progress.
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