JUNE 3, 2016
As the monsoons are expected to hit Kerala in the next few days, the engine that will pull the rains into southern and eastern India is an upper air cyclonic circulation that will move over Andhra Pradesh on June 4, 2016.
The system will form over the state tomorrow, then meander over Telangana, Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh till June 8-9. It will then move back over Visakhapatnam area and intensify.
It is expected to move back into the Bay of Bengal on June 11. It may slam into the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on June 12-13 after intensifying into a depression. Maybe even a tropical cyclone.
The south west monsoon will take awhile to reach western India. In the absence of any low/cyclonic circulations things will be relatively quieter on the western coast of India. Though rainfall activity will rise gradually. Indications are things will get hot, rather wet, around June 10 as a massive cluster of thunderstorms will form in the Arabian Sea off Konkan coast.
The satellite image shows the emerging circulation over Andhra Pradesh
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