No Major Storm Systems Likely In Near Future

JULY 23, 2016

The southwest monsoon in South Asia in 2016 has been weird. Though it has dumped satisfactory amounts of rainfall in almost all over India (except north Gujarat, Saurashtra-Kutch, Sindh, and western Rajasthan) there has been an utter lack of big rainmaker systems like low pressure areas and depressions (except for the recent low pressure system that drenched Madhya Pradesh for a week).

The weak low pressure area on the Andhra Pradesh coast turned out to be weaker than expected and will fizzle out soon. That has been the theme of this monsoon. Weak Bay of Bengal low pressure systems that die out too soon.

That is the reason why Saurashtra Kutch and Sindh are starved of rain this year. No low pressure areas from the Bay of Bengal. Adding salt to the injury the Arabian Sea stream of the monsoon has been totally sterile till now.

All this is perhaps because of the adverse Indian Ocean Dipole condition coupled with neutral ENSO conditions. It is hard to say when La Niña will arise. If lucky before the end of monsoon 2016.

Looking at the near future, Uttarakhand is in for flooding rains by July end. The little rain system which is presently hovering over Telangana-eastern Maharashtra will bring good rains to western Madhya Pradesh, south, central Gujarat and Rajasthan in the next 5 days.

Rain-starved Kutch region of Gujarat may receive some heavy showers on July 28-30, which may extend to southern Sindh.

The GFS model expects very heavy rains in Gujarat and Sindh around August 5, 2016. But that is a long way off.

All we can do is keep our fingers crossed and await an early birth of La Niña. On a positive note, a strong low pressure area is likely to form off the Odisha coast on August 1, 2016. How sustainable it will be, and where it goes remains to be seen.

The GFS model paints an optimistic picture. (See forecast map below). It predicts that by August 8, 2016, good rains will occur almost everywhere. How much of that happens is debatable. But the fact remains this forecast model foresees an active monsoon in early August. Two heavy rain spells to hit western India, mainly Gujarat. On August 3 and August 8.

The expected increase of monsoon activity could be owing to the rise of La Niña in August. Though opinions differ about it's birth two Indian meteorologists believe a weak La Niña could kick in during August.

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RAINFALL FORECAST 

July 23, Saturday: Telangana, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Goa 

July 24, Sunday: Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Bihar, Karnataka 

July 25, Monday: Northern Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, NE states

July 26, Tuesday: Western Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Eastern Rajasthan 

July 27, Wednesday: Central Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan 

July 28, Thursday: Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, coastal Sindh 

July 29, Friday: Western Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa 

July 30, Saturday: Rayalseema, North Gujarat, Kutch, western Rajasthan, Sindh 

Gujarat, Sindh To Receive First Heavy Rains From June 29-30

JUNE 27, 2016

Progress of monsoon into Gujarat has been sluggish. It has covered half the state and stopped. This is because a big rain system moved into the Arabian Sea instead of moving into the state. It gave good showers to coastal Saurashtra and moved into the north Arabian Sea and lies as a low pressure area dumping precious water into the sea. The system will hover around and dissipate in mid sea without benefitting Gujarat, Sindh or Oman.

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The low pressure area over north Arabian Sea has intensified into a tropical cyclone 02A. But as we have predicted earlier it will subside in the sea itself in a couple of days. 

We are monitoring the storm and will update you on fresh developments.

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But rescue is at hand for parched Saurashtra Kutch Sindh. The Bay of Bengal will hurl another big rainmaker which will move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha, western Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Kutch and finally reach coastal Sindh on June 30.

The Bay of Bengal is going to throw out another bigger rain system that will push monsoon into entire India. The system will end up over Rajasthan or Gujarat on July 5-6.

I guess this will because La Niña is on the rise. Drenching rains are on the cards in early July as monsoon will change gears.

Welcome July. Welcome La Niña.