The Bay of Bengal low pressure system which traversed through West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand is presently beginning its tour of Madhya Pradesh. Flooding rainfall has already occurred over the state owing to its influence.
The heavy precipitation is likely to continue in the state over the coming 5-6 days as the rainmaker system goes around erratically over Madhya Pradesh. Earlier it was expected to travel to northern Maharashtra, Gujarat and then Sindh but it seems to have changed its mind if forecast models are to be believed.
So good rains are expected over northern Maharashtra in a couple of days but Gujarat will remain largely dry. Maybe some heavy showers in central Gujarat are possible on July 8 but Saurashtra, Kutch will remain rainless.
Another rain system will affect western Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan around July 12, 2016. Good rains are expected in Uttar Pradesh in mid July.
Most parts of Gujarat are in for a long dry spell. Heavy rainfall is possible in Sindh, including Karachi on July 13-14. Unless of course the unpredictable monsoon 2016 springs a surprise.
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