The monsoons may be at an ebb now but a strong revival is in the offing in the coming 10 days. Many parts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar may receive heavy rains.
This will be possible because of two low pressure areas. Both will travel a long time without weakening and cross a long distance.
Let us discuss in detail.
The first is the low pressure/cyclonic circulation that is hovering over Bengal presently. In the coming days it will move along the coast in the Bay of Bengal. First Odisha then Andhra Pradesh. It will enter the state on September 15 and move through Telangana, Maharashtra and emerge in the Arabian Sea just off the Mumbai coast, south of Saurashtra on September 17. Where it will go after that remains to be seen. It may move into Gujarat. Or it may dissipate in the Arabian Sea. Or it may intensify into a depression or tropical cyclone.
Folks in Gujarat, Oman and Pakistan must track this system with interest. Forecast models say it will intensify after emerging in the Arabian Sea.
The second rain maker system will come from the South China Sea. It will be born west of the Philippines, intensify into a depression or tropical storm and hit central Vietnam on September 13, 2016. After that it will move through Cambodia, Myanmar, and emerge in the Bay of Bengal near the Bangladesh/Bengal coast and intensify on September 17, 2016.
What this system does after that is uncertain at this stage.
We are not saying a tropical cyclone is imminent in the North Indian Ocean but if forecast models are to be believed a major rain system is likely in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in the coming days.
Let us see.
UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 8, 2016, THURSDAY
The picture remains hazy. Further latest data from forecast models confirms a strong low pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh coast on September 18. Also confirmed is the tropical storm/depression hitting central Vietnam on September 13. The CFS model predicts heavy showers in Konkan and Mumbai around September 24, 2016.
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