The monsoon in India this year has been unremarkable as compared to other years. Though it has rained every where in little or more amounts, there have been few powerful rain systems. There was only one this year. Last month a low pressure system hovered over Madhya Pradesh for a week bringing floods.
Otherwise generally unremarkable. The Indian Met Department has reduced its forecast from above average to average rainfall in 2016. Forecasts by global forecast models of a bountiful Indian monsoon has been proved wrong.
The culprit is La Niña. The absence of it. Expectations that the flooding La Niña would be born in July or August have been belied. September has come and ENSO conditions are still neutral. In short, no La Niña. The monsoon are preparing to withdraw from South Asia.
In the coming days monsoon rains in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana will begin to decrease. Unless of course either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal throw out a low pressure system or a depression. None are expected in the near future.
A low pressure area will affect Bangladesh, Bengal and Bihar on September 5-6 bringing good rains. Otherwise it remains sedate in South Asia.
Come October and chances of a tropical cyclone in either Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal increases.
3 comments:
Sir does la Nina affects the formation of tropical storm
Yes. La Niña increases chances of formation of tropical cyclones. If La Niña does rise in October, November one can expect cyclones in North Indian Ocean.
Any chance of uac over oman and the future devopment of uac over bay of
bengal around 13/9/2016.. to get merrged and giving widespred heavy rain over south saurashtra and gujarat
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