Update: December 12, 2014: CYCLONE BAKUNG IS INTENSIFYING NOW
Bansi is Bakung. The cyclone was born in Indonesia's area of meteorological influence, hence it go the honors to do the christening. But it is likely that this cyclone will recognise no bureaucratic areas of influence and may head to Mascareignes after a long long journey (ala Hagupit which traveled for 12 days). Right now cyclone Bakung is intensifying in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. By December 15 it will be a 100+ kph storm.
Its future is uncertain. It may head straight south to commit suicide fighting the mighty Westerlies. Or it might take a SW course and reach the Mascareignes after a long journey. Some say it will be a big storm, central pressure of 979. Others say it will trudge along as a depression. Most track forecasts only go uptil 5 days. Bakung seems to have everybody confused and divided.
See "Bakung" Track Forecast
The forecasts differ because they have different estimates of wind shear that Bakung is going to face. The GFS forecasts a high shear so it says the storm will not go far or will not intensify much. The other models give it a more favourable conditions, so it will flourish and go far.
For folks in the Mascareignes, where the local met departments follow the European Forecast Model, there is bad news. The ECMWF (The European Model) predicts Bakung is going to come hunting in your waters as a big bad storm. Especially vulnerable is Rodrigues Island whom Cyclone Bakung might affect after December 23, 2014.
It is a storm to watch. It is going to travel a long distance.
Update: December 10, 2014
Future storm Bansi is very much on. NOAA has started monitoring the system labeled "90S". Presently it lies a few hundred kms off Sumatra, In the coming days it is going to travel a long way heading south into the Indian Ocean. In a few days it will turn into a cyclone. Most forecasts say it will be quite a storm with a central pressure of 973. After December 16 it will intensify rapidly. It is not going to affect any land mass. Mascareignes is safe.
December 9, 2014
Update: December 11, 2014
Even the JTWC has taken note of 90S. Its present winds are about 40 kph. The JTWC believes it may turn into a significant tropical storm in the next 24 hours. The various models have different forecasts. Some predict it will be quite a storm with a pressure of 973, other say 985 mb. The tracks also differ wildly. Some say it will go south. Others say it will dissipate after a few days (Or remain a depression).
But this future storm is worth watching. It has forecast models confused. So had Hagupit a few days earlier.
Update: December 9, 2014
Yeah! Forecasts say our man cyclone Bansi is back! It is going to form in the next few days off the coast of Indonesia and then slowly intensify and travel a long way passing by Rodrigues Island on December 23, 2014. Presently it is a low pressure area just off Sumatra Island. (See It LIVE)
This storm has sent us on a wild goose chase. A few days ago the depression in the southern Indian Ocean failed to make it to cyclone grade and be named Bansi.
But if latest forecasts are to be believed Bansi is coming as a big bad storm! Not a super cyclone but a big storm with a respectable central pressure of 973 Mb.
The formation of Bansi is corroborated by three forecast models, only the intensities vary.
Keep in touch for latest news of Bansi's antics.
See "Bansi" Live
Bansi is Bakung. The cyclone was born in Indonesia's area of meteorological influence, hence it go the honors to do the christening. But it is likely that this cyclone will recognise no bureaucratic areas of influence and may head to Mascareignes after a long long journey (ala Hagupit which traveled for 12 days). Right now cyclone Bakung is intensifying in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. By December 15 it will be a 100+ kph storm.
Its future is uncertain. It may head straight south to commit suicide fighting the mighty Westerlies. Or it might take a SW course and reach the Mascareignes after a long journey. Some say it will be a big storm, central pressure of 979. Others say it will trudge along as a depression. Most track forecasts only go uptil 5 days. Bakung seems to have everybody confused and divided.
See "Bakung" Track Forecast
For folks in the Mascareignes, where the local met departments follow the European Forecast Model, there is bad news. The ECMWF (The European Model) predicts Bakung is going to come hunting in your waters as a big bad storm. Especially vulnerable is Rodrigues Island whom Cyclone Bakung might affect after December 23, 2014.
It is a storm to watch. It is going to travel a long distance.
Update: December 10, 2014
Future storm Bansi is very much on. NOAA has started monitoring the system labeled "90S". Presently it lies a few hundred kms off Sumatra, In the coming days it is going to travel a long way heading south into the Indian Ocean. In a few days it will turn into a cyclone. Most forecasts say it will be quite a storm with a central pressure of 973. After December 16 it will intensify rapidly. It is not going to affect any land mass. Mascareignes is safe.
December 9, 2014
Update: December 11, 2014
Even the JTWC has taken note of 90S. Its present winds are about 40 kph. The JTWC believes it may turn into a significant tropical storm in the next 24 hours. The various models have different forecasts. Some predict it will be quite a storm with a pressure of 973, other say 985 mb. The tracks also differ wildly. Some say it will go south. Others say it will dissipate after a few days (Or remain a depression).
But this future storm is worth watching. It has forecast models confused. So had Hagupit a few days earlier.
Update: December 9, 2014
Yeah! Forecasts say our man cyclone Bansi is back! It is going to form in the next few days off the coast of Indonesia and then slowly intensify and travel a long way passing by Rodrigues Island on December 23, 2014. Presently it is a low pressure area just off Sumatra Island. (See It LIVE)
This storm has sent us on a wild goose chase. A few days ago the depression in the southern Indian Ocean failed to make it to cyclone grade and be named Bansi.
But if latest forecasts are to be believed Bansi is coming as a big bad storm! Not a super cyclone but a big storm with a respectable central pressure of 973 Mb.
The formation of Bansi is corroborated by three forecast models, only the intensities vary.
Keep in touch for latest news of Bansi's antics.
See "Bansi" Live
Forecast Map: Cyclone Bansi on December 16, 2014
No comments:
Post a Comment