Cyclone MAARUTHA Hurtling Towards Myanmar

UPDATE, APRIL 17, 2017

The cyclone made landfall near Sandoway around midnight and moved inland. Latest satellite image shows the system has weakened to a low and is over interior Myanmar now.

UPDATE APRIL 16, 2017, 1530 IST 

Presently tropical cyclone MAARUTHA lies about 150 kilometres from the Myanmar coast. It is raining very heavily in Rakhine state around Sandoway. Our estimate is it will make landfall at 2300 hours, Myanmar local time.

The pink color denotes areas of very heavy rainfall.

APRIL 16, 2017, SUNDAY 

The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal intensified further into tropical cyclone MAARUTHA last night. Current wind speeds of the storm are 65-70 km/h. It lies presently about 300 kilometres from the coast of Myanmar.

By early Monday morning it will make landfall into the country's coast between Sittwe and Sangoway near Ramree and Cheduba islands. Wind speed at impact will be 75 km/h. There will be flooding rainfall in that part of Rakhine state. Though precipitation has already started in many parts of coastal Myanmar.

Capital Naypyidaw will receive heavy thundershowers by noon tomorrow as the weakening system moves inland.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts MAARUTHA will hit the Myanmar coast at midnight with winds of 65-70 km/h. Our estimate is they will be higher.

Tropical Storm, MAARUTHA, To Form April 15

APRIL 14, 2017

The low pressure area that has formed in the Bay of Bengal lay a few hundred kilometres east of the coast of Tamil Nadu today early morning. It was throwing out winds of 35-40 km/h then.

It is intensifying all the time and moving quickly in a northerly direction away from the Indian mainland. The American GFS model expects it to turn into a tropical storm by Saturday morning when it will be close to the Andaman Islands. This model expects it to reach wind speeds of 120 km/h when it hits the Myanmar coast at Rakhine, south of Sittwe on Monday morning.

Other models too expect a Rakhine landfall on April 17 but they expect the system may remain just a deep depression, not a tropical cyclone, reaching sustained winds of 60 km/h.

But it is going to bring very heavy rainfall to Andaman Islands and in Myanmar by April 20, 2017.

Latest data from the GFS model says MAARUTHA is going to intensify into a 150-170 km/h monster with a central minimum pressure of 957 hPa before landfall into Myanmar in the early hours of Monday. Very worrying news for the authorities and people of the country.

Bay of Bengal Storm (MAARUTHA) To Hit Myanmar April 17-18, 2017

APRIL 13, 2017, THURSDAY 

The expected deep depression/tropical cyclone MAARUTHA in the Bay of Bengal will be spawned as a low pressure area today a few hundred kilometres east of the Sri Lankan coast. Forecast models say it will go on ultimately and hit the coast of Myanmar at Sandoway on April 17-18, 2017.

This system will intensify rapidly after forming today evening, Indian Standard Time, IST. It will move rapidly in a north northeasterly direction, strengthening all the time. It will move past Andaman Islands in the next 48-72 hours. By Saturday it will turn into full blown tropical storm.

It remains to be seen if the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) deems it fit to be a tropical cyclone MAARUTHA or labels it just a deep depression. Our estimate is that the system will be throwing out sustained winds of 65-75 km/h by April 16. A tropical cyclone.

The storm will weaken into a depression before landfall into the Rakhine state of Myanmar near Sandoway on April 18, 2017. It will bring heavy rains to Andaman and Nicobar islands and Myanmar in the coming days. Our estimate is at least 8-10 inches of torrential precipitation.

American GFS model predicts a stronger storm. It envisages the system moving more quickly and hitting Myanmar south of Sittwe on April 16. Thus leaving even less time for authorities in Myanmar to prepare for this imminent quick moving threat. The country's disaster relief personnel should swing into action at the earliest to take preemptive measures to mitigate the losses.

Our advice to tourists in the Andaman and Nicobar islands is to go to nearby storm shelters or leave for the mainland earliest possible. The weather is going to be very nasty in the coming days.

Probable position of Bay of Bengal storm on April 16, 2017.

Disturbed conditions in Bay of Bengal presently. The yellow and red dots denote lightning. The dark blue color shows heavy precipitation.

Total accumulated rainfall till April 22, 2017

Cyclone MAARUTHA Imminent In Bay of Bengal?

APRIL 11, 2017

Something like this was bound to happen, given the searing abnormal temperatures in many parts of India. It is possible that we may see the Bay of Bengal spawn a powerful tropical cyclone by April 14-15, 2017. It will be named MAARUTHA.

Major global weather forecast models are suggesting that a low pressure area will form in the Bay of Bengal west of the Andaman Islands in the next 3-4 days.

The American GFS model says outright that this system will intensify into a powerful cyclone by April 17-18. At present it says the storm will go on and hit the northern coast of Myanmar just south of Chittagong around April 20.

Other models are more sanguine. They do predict a big depression/tropical storm but are not sure about its track. They say it will weaken into a low pressure system by April 18-19.

There is a strong possibility that the system will intensify at most into a deep depression, just short of a tropical storm.

We have to wait and see if MAARUTHA does form. And if yes, where it goes finally.

Windy torrential rainfall of 10-20 inches is expected in Andaman Islands in the coming days due to the influence of this system. And if it hits northern Myanmar expect floods in that part of the country.

Tropical Storm KYANT Brewing In Bay of Bengal, Heavy Rains In Coastal Myanmar, Bangladesh Likely

OCTOBER 22, 2016, SATURDAY 

The Bay of Bengal has belatedly thrown out a tropical storm, which will be named KYANT in a couple of days. It is a depression now some 750 kilometres from Yangon, Myanmar at present. In the coming few days the system 99B will move close to the coast of Myanmar.

On October 24, 2016, it will intensify into a tropical storm. Our estimate is at its peak it will reach a central minimum pressure of 981 millibars. Compared to the recent West Pacific monster Haima which had reached 922 millibars, this one will be a mere toddler.

But it is going to bring lots of rainfall to coastal Myanmar and then on October 28 to parts of Bangladesh and some Indian NE states.

KYANT will swing back into the sea away from the Myanmar coast on October 25 and perhaps hit the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on October 28, 2016.

But it's track may change in the coming days. Keep in touch.

It is also possible that this system may not strengthen enough to become a tropical cyclone and may remain on record according to the Indian Meteorological Department a mere deep depression and not be named "KYANT". At most it may turn out to be a weak cyclone, according to present forecasts.

Bay of Bengal Depression May Intensify Into A Cyclone By May 20

MAY 16, 2016

Though it is not certain but there is good chance that the present Bay of Bengal depression 91B may turn into a tropical cyclone on Friday, May 20, 2016.

Presently the low pressure area has left Sri Lanka and in the next 24 hours will move along the Tamil Nadu coast. Heavy rainfall has already stated in southern districts of the state. By tomorrow they will spread to Chennai and adjoining areas.

By May 18, the depression will slide by the Andhra coast. Since it is not expected to move inland, Telangana will receive comparatively less precipitation than the Andhra coast.

By Friday the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone (ROANU). It is not expected to be a very powerful storm. A moderate cyclone with winds of around 80-90 km/h.

Southern coastal Odisha and northern Andhra will face strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The cyclone will rapidly move to Myanmar on May 21-22, 2016.

This scenario is not certain. As some numerical forecast models say the depression may weaken and move to Myanmar.

Only the NAVGEM model predicts a massive cyclone hit on Bangladesh. But at present it seems unlikely.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates 

No Cyclone In Bay of Bengal: Heavy Rains In Northern Tamil Nadu On Novemebr 14, 2014

We recently ruled out the possibility of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal based on the GFS model. This model said yesterday that only a low pressure area will form which will bring heavy rains to Myanmar around November 8, 2014.

Surprisingly the Canadian CMC forecast says a massive cyclone will hit the Odisha coast on November 7, 2014. Latest CMC forecasts say that the low pressure will head towards Myanmar coast strengthen into a cyclone and then swing back and hit Odisha on November 11. All very elaborate and long-winded.

The reliable European model ECMWF predicts a depression that will bring rains to Odisha around November 10, 2014.

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2014, 10 AM [IST]: CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL FORM ON NOVEMBER 10 EAST OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS AND HIT ANDHRA COAST AT VISAKHAPATNAM ON NOVEMBER 12 NIGHT

Read More>>>>>

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Confusing situation. We can only wait and watch. We would bet on what the GFS says. We can be sure of a cyclone when the ever-reliable GFS confirms it. Right now all it says is a low pressure area going into Myanmar. Personally, we think the chances of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal appear are slim. Typhoon Nuri sucked off all the energy from the Bay of Bengal.

It is quite definite now that the likelihood of a storm in the Bay of Bengal this year is little. The much
vaunted low pressure area that is hovering in the Bay will move to Myanmar on November 9. It will make landfall as a low pressure area. Lots of rain in the country, but no cyclone.

Another low pressure area will cross over into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand immediately after the earlier area goes to Myanmar. This system will traverse the Bay of Bengal briskly [Turn into, perhaps, a depression] bringing heavy rains to northern Tamil Nadu on November 13-14.

In short, no cyclone.

 The CMC predicts a cyclone on Nov 7

 The ECMWF says a depression on Nov 10

The GFS predicts a low pressure (or a depression] on Nov 11

A video about Typhoon Nuri and a possible storm in the Bay of Bengal

Latest Forecast Say Cyclone "Murjan" Will Be Bigger, But Will Hit Burma

Weather prediction map (Click to enlarge) May 26, 2012. The storm nudges the Orissa coast

The projected path of tropical storm Murjan has shifted. (Vagaries of nature). Instead of a weak cyclone hitting the Indian coast at Rajahmundry, it is going to be a big bad boy. And it will just kiss the coasts of Orissa and West Bengal in India and Bangladesh, ( Latest reports say it will not even touch the Indian or Bangladesh coast) but will hit with full fury the Burmese coast on Friday, April 27, 2012.


The stretch most affected will be between the towns of Akyab (Sittwe) and Sandoway on the Burmese coast. Ramree and Cheduba islands are in for a big lashing and heavy drenching from April 27. The whole of Myanmar will get heavy rains on that day. 


The wind speeds when Murjan will hit the Myanmar coast? Excess of 70-80 Kmph. The storm will be spawned on April 23, 2012 east of the Sri Lankan coast. The low pressure area will move north towards the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast for the next 3 days and then intensify strongly becoming a cyclone. It will then curve towards the Burmese coat and hit it on April 27.

Weather prediction map (Click to enlarge): April 27, 2012. The storm curves towards Burma, about to hit it.