Bay of Bengal Cyclone ROANU Updates May 2016

MAY 22, 2016
ROANU NOW A DEPRESSION, OVER MYANMAR

Cyclone Roanu is a cyclone no more. It weakened to a deep depression and then into a depression. Soon it will weaken into a low pressure area.

At 0000 GMT today it lay over Myanmar adjoining to the Manipur border. It will bring heavy rains in north east Myanmar in the coming days.

The whole region will receive rains in the next 72 hours. See the forecast map showing expected precipitation till May 25. Northern Myanmar is in for heavy rains in the coming days as the low moves over the area.

MAY 21, 2016, 0830 GMT

ROANU MAKES LANDFALL EARLIER AT BARISAL AT 0530 GMT

The cyclone moved into Bangladesh earlier than expected. It took a slightly northerly course than was generally expected. It is moving between Dhaka and Chittagong into Tripura-Mizoram.

It is raining now in southeastern Bangladesh, parts of Myanmar, Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur. The rains will cease in the next 24-48 hours in these areas as the system moves on quickly and weakens into a low pressure area.

But strong winds are blowing on the southeastern Bangladesh coast. Our conservative estimate is 70-80 km/h.

This radar image at 1100 GMT today shows the rains have already moved onto Mizoram and Tripura.

MAY 21, 2016, 0200 UTC, 0730 IST

ROANU WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY AFTERNOON

Presently it lies south of the West Bengal coast. Winds of 100 km/h, gusting up to 120 km/h.

It will hit the Bangladesh coastline at Chittagong at about 0800 GMT, that is 1400 local time. Winds of 70-80 km/h will lash southeast Bangladesh.

It is already raining heavily in southern Bangladesh. This will continue for another 24 hours. Heavy rains also expected in Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura and northern Myanmar.

Looking at the latest Rain Estimator satellite image one sees heaviest precipitation is in northern Myanmar, Indian north eastern states and southeastern Bangladesh.

At 0830 Bangladesh time, the system lay just south of the country's coast at Kuakata.

The storm brought significant rainfall to coastal West Bengal. 93 mm in Contai, 103 mm in Digha and 70 mm in Canning.

Odisha received even heavier rains. Paradise recorded 163.9 mm till today morning. Puri's figure was 86.6 mm.

Cyclone ROANU rainfall estimator satellite image May 21

MAY 20, 2016, 0830 UTC, 1400 IST

CYCLONE HOWLING AT 90-100 KM/H NEAR ODISHA COAST

Reliable monitors say cyclone ROANU is near Brahmapur on the Odisha coast. Central minimum pressure is 984.5 hPa. Sustained winds of 90-100 km/h. Gusts upto 120 km/h.

It is raining heavily on southern Odisha coast now. Brahmapur (Behrampur), Puri, Cuttack, Bhubaneswar and Jagatsinghpur are receiving torrential rains with winds of 50-60 km/h.

So vast is the storm that it is still raining heavily in Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam in Andhra. Rains will ease in Vijaywada soon.

The storm is throwing down phenomenal amount of rainfall. For instance Kalingapatnam in Srikakulam district of AP has yearly rain of 209.7 mm. ROANU dumped 144.6 mm in 24 hours ending today morning 0830 IST.

In the next 3 hours it will start moving away from the Odisha coast, tilting towards Bangladesh.

Heavy rains will soon move into Kolkata and Digha in West Bengal. It has already started raining in coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh.

Flooding warning.... Tripura, Mizoram and the Chittagong area of Bangladesh will receive upto 25 inches of rain in the next 72 hours, till May 23, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016, 0100 UTC, 0630 IST

CYCLONE ROANU WILL MOVE QUICKLY NOW

A word of warning for Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone ROANU is moving rapidly now. By today evening it will be near the southern Odisha coast. By Saturday night May 21, Bangladesh time, it will slam into the Chittagong area. Expected winds at impact: 90 km/h.

Presently it lies east of Visakhapatnam in the Bay of Bengal, off the coast at Srikakulam. Wind speeds are 70 km/h. But it will intensify to 100 km/h by today evening. It may weaken a little by Saturday.

Below is the rain forecast map. Owing to the tropical cyclone coastal Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, southern Bangladesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and northern Myanmar will receive heavy precipitation till may 23, 2016. The rains in northern coastal Andhra will continue for another 24 hours.

The areas in red will receive torrential rainfall till Monday thanks to the ROANU effect.

Expected rainfall May 20, 2016

Expected rainfall May 21, 2016

Expected rainfall May 22, 2016

MAY 19, 2016, 0700 UTC, 1230 IST

ROANU TO BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED

The storm is hovering about 100 kilometres east of Machilipatnam now.

By Friday morning it will be near Visakhapatnam spewing gale force winds of 100-110 km/h.

By Friday evening it will intensify more and will move along Odisha coast.

There is grave danger of flooding in coastal Andhra, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and some Indian North Eastern states in the coming days because of this tropical cyclone. Astonishing that the Indian news media seems more interested in elections.

Not to mention the strong winds.

The following districts will face flooding, torrential rainfall in the next 48 hours. Guntur, Krishna, East Godavari, West Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, Srikakulam.

Coastal districts of Odisha and West Bengal face a similar threat on May 20-21, 2016.

ROANU will cruise along the Andhra coast for the next 36 hours. On Saturday Odisha coastal districts face the rain-wind menace.

Special warning to folks in the Chittagong area of Bangladesh. ROANU is going to suddenly intensify on May 21 and slam into the country on early Sunday morning with winds of 120 km/h. This applies to northern Myanmar also.

The states of Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland face drenching rains on May 21-22.

Cyclone ROANU May 19 2016 IR satellite image

MAY 18, 2016, 1030 UTC, 1600 IST

The cyclone has sustained winds of 70 km/h. But the Andhra coast being a little away from the strong wind areas of the storm's circumference have lesser winds. Machilipatnam district has at present 40 km/h gale.

This wind map is from 0830 UTC (1400 IST).

MAY 18, 2016, 0900 UTC, 1430 IST

CYCLONE ROANU HAS FORMED SAYS JTWC

The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a tropical cyclone. NOAA calls it 1B. The formal naming with ROANU by the IMD is awaited.

Below is expected track and intensity of cyclone ROANU by JTWC. This was issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center just half an hour ago.

Chittagong in Bangladesh will suffer a direct hit by the tropical cyclone on Saturday night. May 21, 2016.

Very gusty conditions with torrential rainfall is expected in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha in the next 72 hours.

The districts of Nellore, Prakasham, Krishna, East Godavari, West Godavari will face the strongest winds as the track of the storm passes closest to these areas.

MAY 18, 2016, 0630 UTC, 1200 IST

CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING......TARGET BANGLADESH SUNDAY

Global forecast models warn that the Bay of Bengal depression 91B is intensifying rapidly and could turn into a tropical cyclone within next 24 hours. By Thursday morning IST.

The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) says the probability of a tropical cyclone formation in the North Indian Ocean in the next 24 hours is high.

Forecast models warn the cyclone ROANU could intensify further on May 20-21 and hit Bangladesh in the Chittagong area on Sunday.

The Indian Meteorological Department expects a Chittagong hit on Sunday. Here is the IMD multi-model forecast for cyclone ROANU....The analysis is dated May 17.

MAY 18, 2016: 0430 GMT, 1000 IST

91B A DEPRESSION NOW, WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER SOON

The system lay east of Chennai in the Bay of Bengal about 4 hours back. It is moving along the coast.

Rainfall activity in coastal Andhra will remain vigorous in the next 48-60 hours. Some districts may receive torrential downpours. Rains will abate only after Friday.

All the districts of the state are in for heavy precipitation accompanied by winds of 50-60 km/h.

By Thursday the system will have intensified into a deep depression. And after that perhaps a weak cyclone ROANU.

The storm will swing away from the Andhra-Odisha border coast on Friday into the sea. It will make landfall on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border coast on Sunday.

MAY 17, 2016: 0400 GMT

CYCLONE ROANU TO HIT MYANMAR MAY 21...OR CHITTAGONG?

It is coming. Not a very big cyclone. Winds of 70-80 km/h. And lots of rain. ROANU will hit Myanmar on Saturday.

The Bay of Bengal low pressure system lay east off the northern tip of Sri Lanka at 0000 GMT today. In the next 48 hours it will move along the Indian coast. It is moving north quickly. On May 19, near the Andhra coast it will start intensifying. Into a deep depression than perhaps a tropical cyclone.

The system is moving north along the coast. The present rains in coastal districts of Tamil Nadu will shift to the Andhra coastal areas in the next 48 hours.

Below is the rain estimator satellite image at 0330 GMT today.

CYCLONE WARNING.... FORECAST MODELS SAY BOB LOW PRESSURE IS INTENSIFYING...WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION/DEEP DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW THAT IS MAY 18.....IT MAY INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE ROANU BY FRIDAY OFF ANDHRA COAST.....TARGET.....CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.....MAY 22 EARLY MORNING

MAY 16, 2016: 1230 GMT, 1730 IST

The Indian Met, IMD, thinks there is a >30% chance of a cyclone developing from 91B by tomorrow.

The JTWC, Joint Typhoon Warning Center says...."THE POTENTIAL FOR

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM."

MAY 16, 2016: 0930 GMT, 1500 IST

RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE OF 91B

The image shows two things

1. It is intensifying.

2. It's effect are seen over a large area. It has thrown clouds thousands of kilometres away even in the Arabian Sea. Appears to be a cyclone in the making.