No Cyclone In Bay of Bengal: Heavy Rains In Northern Tamil Nadu On Novemebr 14, 2014

We recently ruled out the possibility of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal based on the GFS model. This model said yesterday that only a low pressure area will form which will bring heavy rains to Myanmar around November 8, 2014.

Surprisingly the Canadian CMC forecast says a massive cyclone will hit the Odisha coast on November 7, 2014. Latest CMC forecasts say that the low pressure will head towards Myanmar coast strengthen into a cyclone and then swing back and hit Odisha on November 11. All very elaborate and long-winded.

The reliable European model ECMWF predicts a depression that will bring rains to Odisha around November 10, 2014.

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UPDATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2014, 10 AM [IST]: CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL FORM ON NOVEMBER 10 EAST OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS AND HIT ANDHRA COAST AT VISAKHAPATNAM ON NOVEMBER 12 NIGHT

Read More>>>>>

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Confusing situation. We can only wait and watch. We would bet on what the GFS says. We can be sure of a cyclone when the ever-reliable GFS confirms it. Right now all it says is a low pressure area going into Myanmar. Personally, we think the chances of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal appear are slim. Typhoon Nuri sucked off all the energy from the Bay of Bengal.

It is quite definite now that the likelihood of a storm in the Bay of Bengal this year is little. The much
vaunted low pressure area that is hovering in the Bay will move to Myanmar on November 9. It will make landfall as a low pressure area. Lots of rain in the country, but no cyclone.

Another low pressure area will cross over into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand immediately after the earlier area goes to Myanmar. This system will traverse the Bay of Bengal briskly [Turn into, perhaps, a depression] bringing heavy rains to northern Tamil Nadu on November 13-14.

In short, no cyclone.

 The CMC predicts a cyclone on Nov 7

 The ECMWF says a depression on Nov 10

The GFS predicts a low pressure (or a depression] on Nov 11

A video about Typhoon Nuri and a possible storm in the Bay of Bengal