India Weather Forecast:Showers in Assam

APRIL 15, 2017

While the Bay of Bengal deep depression will bring a deluge to Myanmar, barring Assam India will remain largely dry.

Thunderstorms are likely in parts of Assam accompanied by lightning today late night even as the Bay of Bengal depression starts drenching coastal Myanmar.

The Myanmar coast near Sangoway and perhaps Pathein will receive heavy rainfall as the Bay of Bengal depression hits the country early Monday morning.

Bay Of Bengal System Strengthening To Deep Depression Soon

APRIL 15, 2017

The low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal moved further north and intensified into a depression today. It lies a few hundred kilometres west of Andaman Islands. It will continue to strengthen and move in a north northeasterly direction.

It is expected to make landfall into Rakhine state of Myanmar near Sittwe on early Monday morning. Our estimate is that the system will grow into a 64 km/h deep depression at most. A borderline case between a deep depression and weak tropical cyclone.

Though the American GFS model continues to insist on a 100-120 km/h tropical cyclone. If it does become one it should be named MAARUTHA. Though doubts remain about the name of the next North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone, with some weather sites saying it will be MORA. Others say it will be ASIRI.

The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) believes the chances of a tropical cyclone are high.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Tropical Storm, MAARUTHA, To Form April 15

APRIL 14, 2017

The low pressure area that has formed in the Bay of Bengal lay a few hundred kilometres east of the coast of Tamil Nadu today early morning. It was throwing out winds of 35-40 km/h then.

It is intensifying all the time and moving quickly in a northerly direction away from the Indian mainland. The American GFS model expects it to turn into a tropical storm by Saturday morning when it will be close to the Andaman Islands. This model expects it to reach wind speeds of 120 km/h when it hits the Myanmar coast at Rakhine, south of Sittwe on Monday morning.

Other models too expect a Rakhine landfall on April 17 but they expect the system may remain just a deep depression, not a tropical cyclone, reaching sustained winds of 60 km/h.

But it is going to bring very heavy rainfall to Andaman Islands and in Myanmar by April 20, 2017.

Latest data from the GFS model says MAARUTHA is going to intensify into a 150-170 km/h monster with a central minimum pressure of 957 hPa before landfall into Myanmar in the early hours of Monday. Very worrying news for the authorities and people of the country.

BAY OF BENGAL DEPRESSION TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO TAMIL NADU: ROANU COMING?

MAY 15, 2016

The low pressure area which has formed off the southeastern coast of Sri Lanka (Termed 91B by NOAA) will intensify soon into a depression and move into Tamil Nadu soon.

Under it's effects the state will witness heavy widespread rainfall for the next 48 hours till Tuesday, May 18. The rains will be accompanied by winds of 50-60 km/h.

The system may then move into the Bay of Bengal and hit coastal areas of Myanmar and Bangladesh by May 21. The system will intensify further on moving into the sea into a deep depression or even a moderate tropical cyclone, ROANU, on May 22.

It is also possible that cyclone ROANU may hit Bangladesh proper on May 24 and not Myanmar. If this happens windy rainfall is possible on the Odisha, West Bengal coast on May 23, 2016.

Some numerical forecast models suggest the system will meander around Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh for the next 3-4 days drenching these states thoroughly.

The MPE satellite image taken at 0530 GMT shows heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka presently. These rains will move into Tamil Nadu by early tomorrow.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

Depression/Tropical Storm possible in Arabian Sea soon

There is a good possibility that a storm system will develop in the Arabian Sea in the coming one week. It is likely to bring rains to western India, Pakistan or Oman. We mention Oman because Arabian Sea storms have had a tendency to veer off towards Oman in recent years.

Bay of Bengal Depression May Intensify Into A Cyclone By May 20

MAY 16, 2016

Though it is not certain but there is good chance that the present Bay of Bengal depression 91B may turn into a tropical cyclone on Friday, May 20, 2016.

Presently the low pressure area has left Sri Lanka and in the next 24 hours will move along the Tamil Nadu coast. Heavy rainfall has already stated in southern districts of the state. By tomorrow they will spread to Chennai and adjoining areas.

By May 18, the depression will slide by the Andhra coast. Since it is not expected to move inland, Telangana will receive comparatively less precipitation than the Andhra coast.

By Friday the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone (ROANU). It is not expected to be a very powerful storm. A moderate cyclone with winds of around 80-90 km/h.

Southern coastal Odisha and northern Andhra will face strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The cyclone will rapidly move to Myanmar on May 21-22, 2016.

This scenario is not certain. As some numerical forecast models say the depression may weaken and move to Myanmar.

Only the NAVGEM model predicts a massive cyclone hit on Bangladesh. But at present it seems unlikely.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates 

Rains Coming To Rajasthan, Punjab, Kashmir, Himachal Soon

The Bay of Bengal depression that drenched Gujarat for 4 days will weaken and move to Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh by Wednesday through Rajasthan, Punjab and Delhi.

The depression/low lies over northern Saurashtra presently near Halvad (See Storm Tracker). Under its influence heavy showers are expected in Saurashtra till late evening today. The rains will move to northern Gujarat tomorrow and then into Rajasthan.

By Wednesday (September 23, 2015) the rains will quickly move through the state and then Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and Jammu Kashmir. Heavy rains are possible on Wednesday-Thursday in Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The following are the GFS rain forecast maps for September 21, 22, 23. The figures are in mm.

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 21, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 22, 2015

Rainfall Forecast till 1200 GMT, September 23, 2015