APRIL 15, 2017
The low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal moved further north and intensified into a depression today. It lies a few hundred kilometres west of Andaman Islands. It will continue to strengthen and move in a north northeasterly direction.
It is expected to make landfall into Rakhine state of Myanmar near Sittwe on early Monday morning. Our estimate is that the system will grow into a 64 km/h deep depression at most. A borderline case between a deep depression and weak tropical cyclone.
Though the American GFS model continues to insist on a 100-120 km/h tropical cyclone. If it does become one it should be named MAARUTHA. Though doubts remain about the name of the next North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone, with some weather sites saying it will be MORA. Others say it will be ASIRI.
The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) believes the chances of a tropical cyclone are high.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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