MAY 15, 2016
The low pressure area which has formed off the southeastern coast of Sri Lanka (Termed 91B by NOAA) will intensify soon into a depression and move into Tamil Nadu soon.
Under it's effects the state will witness heavy widespread rainfall for the next 48 hours till Tuesday, May 18. The rains will be accompanied by winds of 50-60 km/h.
The system may then move into the Bay of Bengal and hit coastal areas of Myanmar and Bangladesh by May 21. The system will intensify further on moving into the sea into a deep depression or even a moderate tropical cyclone, ROANU, on May 22.
It is also possible that cyclone ROANU may hit Bangladesh proper on May 24 and not Myanmar. If this happens windy rainfall is possible on the Odisha, West Bengal coast on May 23, 2016.
Some numerical forecast models suggest the system will meander around Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh for the next 3-4 days drenching these states thoroughly.
The MPE satellite image taken at 0530 GMT shows heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka presently. These rains will move into Tamil Nadu by early tomorrow.
Bay of Bengal Storm Updates
Bay of Bengal Storm Updates
Depression/Tropical Storm possible in Arabian Sea soon
There is a good possibility that a storm system will develop in the Arabian Sea in the coming one week. It is likely to bring rains to western India, Pakistan or Oman. We mention Oman because Arabian Sea storms have had a tendency to veer off towards Oman in recent years.
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