BAKUNG Down But Not Out

Update: December 14, 2014

Owing to adverse conditions cyclone Bakung has weakened to a depression. The JTWC has stopped writing about it. But within 36 hours it is going to regenerate and rise like a Phoenix.

Most forecasts give it a moderate future. One goes onto say it will turn into a Category 2 hurricane. Most say it will be  Cat. 1 storm. Bakung will intensify rapidly in a day or two and then start moving south.

It is most likely that the invigorated Bakung will not affect the Mascarene Islands. But the ECMWF model says otherwise. It foretells a strong cyclone (Minimum Central Pressure of about 980 mb) moving straight to these islands.

One of the forecasts paints a dramatic picture. That another cyclone will form in the South Indian Ocean that will merge with Bakung. The result will be a bigger storm. But these are mere different calculations for now.

One thing is certain. Cyclone Bakung is going to come back in 48 hours.