Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 20, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.
Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.
Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.
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| 0300 HOURS GMT, JAN 19, 2015. AN INTENSIFYING CHEDZA CYCLONE |
Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 18, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. NO EFFECT ON MASCAREIGNES.
The storm lies 430 kilometers SSW of Reunion. Wind speed is 80 kph. Central pressure is 993 Mb.(Not a very powerful storm: A weakening Bansi still has 979 Mb). It is expected to strengthen to a 110 kph storm after a day ot two. In the coming hours it will move south first and then south-west. Chedza will hardly have any influence on the Mascareignes. Some clouds on Reunion. May be a drizzle. Weather will soon clear up.
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| CYCLONE CHEDZA IR SAT. IMAGE: 0600 HOURS, JANUARY 18, 2015 |
Presently (0500 GMT, January 16, 2015) it lies 200 west of the coast of central Madagascar. It is already whipping up sustained winds of 75 kph. By tomorrow evening it will have completed its journey over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes. It will have weakened considerably by then. It's fuel, warm waters of the sea, being denied to it as it clambered over Madgascar. But by the night of January 17, the defatigable storm will regain cyclone speeds of 65+ kph.
By the evening of January 18, it will be blowing winds of 80 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It will closest to Reunion on January 19, 2015. About 350 kilometers. After that suddenly Chedza will abruptly change direction (Fortunately for the Mascareignes). It will start moving south.
Make no mistake. Cyclone Chedza will not be storm to sneeze at. On Tuesday, January 20, it will have sustained winds of 110 kph, gusts up to 140 kph. It will continue moving in a south-easterly direction and embrace the powerful Westerlies, which will break it apart.
January 16, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT
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| JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CHEDZA CYCLONE |
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| An image of SW Indian Ocean showing two cyclones, BANSI and CHEDZA. The lighter area on the image showing the heaviest rainfall. (0700 HRS GMT, January 16, 2015). One fears that the two cyclones do not unite to form a giant cyclone. FUJIWHARA EFFECT. |
WHAT WE HAD SAID EARLIER ABOUT CHEDZA...
CYCLONE CHEDZA MAY BE A 80 KPH STORM. More bad news for folks in the Mascareignes. Latest GFS forecast says storm 93S, which expected to come over from Mozambique Channel, may turn out stronger than earlier expected A 80 kph storm. It is too early to be sure but a storm is coming; that is for sure.
1030 Hours, January 14, 2015
STORM 93S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS INTENSIFYING TOO. Possibly future cyclone Chedza is also intensifying too. It is throwing winds of 55 kph. This 93S is the storm that is going to jump over Madagascar and come to Mascareignes after Bansi goes away. 93S will be a smaller storm, may be not even a cyclone, just a depression. But a big rain-maker
0730 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015
ANOTHER STORM (ALBEIT A WEAK ONE) WILL FOLLOW BANSI INTO MASCAREIGNES. It is said troubles come in a pack. A spot of another bad news for folks in the Mascreignes. Just after cyclone Bansi leaves its shores, another storm will clamber over Madagascar and enter the area. The storm (A depression or cyclone CHEDZA) will move over Reunion and Mauritius around January 19, 2015. It might not be another cyclone but will prove to be an unwelcome rain-maker storm. Strangely the storm will form in the Mozambique Channel and then move over into the Indian Ocean proper literally jumping over central Madagascar.
1300 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015
It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
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