January 5, 2015
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| This area in the SW Indian Ocean will throw up a cyclone in the next few days - January 5, 2015 |
January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT
Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.
January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT
It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.
January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT
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| Satellite image of SW Indian Ocean. A tropical Cyclone Bansi is brewing in the waters near Mauritius. Image taken at 0430 hours GMT, January 10, 2015. |
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| SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 1400 HRS, JANUARY 10, 2015 OF SW INDIAN OCEAN |
This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news.
January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT
92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.
January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT
Storm 92S is intensifying. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.
January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT
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| Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015. |
January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT
The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI.
January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT
BANSI: A POSSIBLE SUPER CYCLONE?
According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.
January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT
THE EUROPEAN MODEL ECMWF HAS BAD NEWS for folks in the Rodrigues Island. According to it Cyclone Bansi is going to move right through it on January 15-16 with 150+ kph winds. Mauritius and Reunion will get off lightly.
1630 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015
LATEST FORECAST BY REUNION MET GUYS AT 0000 HRS GMT, TODAY expects the cyclone to rapidly intensify into a storm with winds of 170 kph, gusts up to 215 kph in the next 24 hours. The 170 kph we talk here are "sustained winds" over a 10 minutes period. The Americans define sustained winds over a 1 minute period so the figures will be higher. That means a Category 3 (Or 4) hurricane. Believe me, this is a very very windy storm. The Reunion Met further sticks to its earlier prediction that Bansi will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues on January 15, 2015. We have to analyse the track by seeing the forecasts of the GFS Model and the US Navy's JTWC. These guys are generally very accurate.
0200 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015
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| 0200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 12, 2015. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI The eye is clearly visible. Sign of a powerful storm. |
0400 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015
CYCLONE BANSI IS NOW 280 KILOMETERS NORTH OF MAURITIUS. The storm has moved east in the last 12 hours. Our estimate is that sustained winds are about 150 kph. Gusts would be 200 kph. Mauritius is now experiencing sustained winds of 60-70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. The winds there are blowing from the east presently. The exact position of the cyclone now is 17.52* South, 57.37* East. The storm's eye is clearly visible. The diameter of the eye is 32 kilometers. The center of the storm, where there is deceptive calm. Hardly any winds. Just a gentle breeze of 6 kph. Little clouds. Someone in the eye of the storm would feel as if there was no storm. Perhaps even the sun may be visible. But that area of the eye is the most dangerous place in the world to be in. Just a few kilometers all around are some of the most destructive winds, the so-called "Eye Wall". The winds there are the strongest. Howling at 150-200 kph.
0200 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015.
GFS AND SPECIAL GFS SAY RODRIGUES ISLAND WILL SUFFER A NEAR DIRECT HIT FROM BANSI: The other models (ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM) say cyclone Bansi will pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues. In their forecasts the GFS and SPECIAL GFS disagree. They predict the storm will move eastward more than what the other models say. It will start curving SE late. Which means Rodrigues will suffer a near direct hit. The eye of the cyclone will not pass right through but bad enough.Winds of 150+ kph. Gusts much more. Bansi will start moving into Rodrigues on late Thursday (January 15) evening and take 24 hours to pass through. If that happens Mauritius will get off far more lightly.
Present position of cyclone Bansi: 17.45*South, 57.48*East. 350 kilometers north of Mauritius
10.30 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015
BANSI CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST DAY BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO A SUPER CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. The winds have dropped (relatively) to 200 kph now. But it has started intensifying again. It will do so in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow morning (Mauritius Time) it will be a Category 5 hurricane again. Sustained winds of 260 kph (140 Knots, 162 mph ) Gusts up to a staggering 315 kph.(170 Knots, 195 mph).
January 14, 0200 Hours GMT, 2015
RODRIGUES ISLAND IN FOR A DIRECT HIT BY CYCLONE BANSI: Latest GFS forecasts confirm that the Rodrigues Island is going to get badly battered by the storm. Almost a direct hit. The storm will start moving into the island from 0600 hours GMT, January 15, that is tomorrow morning local time. The winds then will start getting progressively worse as the storm moves in. Winds well in excess of 150 kph will hammer the island for 48 hours till January 17, 2015. Gusts will be more. Bad news for folks on Rodrigues Island.
0400 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015
THE FOCUS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO RODRIGUES ISLAND. BECAUSE IT STANDS IN THE PATH OF A POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE CALLED BANSI. This island is going to bear the brunt of the storm's fury. The cyclone presently lies 580 kilometers WNW of Rodrigues Island. On January 15, Thursday, evening local time Bansi will start knocking on the doorstep. Winds will start rising rapidly as the cyclone will start moving in. Soon 150-200 kph winds will start battering the island. The eye will pass on the next day morning. That is Friday morning. The howling will continue till late Friday evening after which the winds will slowly taper off. 24 hours of insane gale and torrential rainfall. Nature at its angriest. That is what is going to happen to Rodrigues Island in the next 48 hours.
1000 Hours, January 14, 2015.
CYCLONE BANSI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. The winds according to our observation have dropped to 110 kph. We have to see what the forecast models say to know if the storm will keep weakening or is it just a lull before an intensification. The cyclone has come a little closer to Mauritius. 305 kilometers NNE of Mauritius. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.
1230 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015
LATEST GFS FORECAST FOR BANSI ISSUED AT 1200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 14, 2015. It says it seems Mauritius is safe but Rodrigues Island is in for trouble. Cyclone Bansi might have weakened in the last six hours but it is going to start intensifying again soon. And Rodrigues Island is going to face an intensifying storm tomorrow night (Mauritius Local Time). The wind predictions we have outlined earlier still hold. Bansi is down but not out. It is going to intensify again. In conclusion, Mauritius seems safe from an direct hit. Rodrigues is in for it.
0330 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015.
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| 0630 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015. Cyclone Bansi. Notice Storm 93S in the Mozambique Channel. |
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015
WHAT IS IN STORE FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND?
Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015
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| 1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI |
0400 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015
BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND:
Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015
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