CYCLONE '2S' UPDATE: NOVEMBER 29, 2014
The cyclone is 500 Kms NE of Mauritius now. (0200 Hrs GMT). Wind speed is 62 Kmph. Tonight (Mauritius time) it will intensify to winds of 75-90 Kmph. It will change direction and move between Mauritius and Rodigues Island.
The good news is that since the cyclone will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island the wind impact on these two island will be less. Tomorrow early morning Mauritius will have winds of 45-55 Kmph. Rodigues will be harder hit. Winds of 55 Kmph gusts up to 60 Kmph.
Compared to Mauritius, Rodigues will experience heavier rainfall.
It is unfortunate that the MMS is not calling the cyclone a cyclone just because of irrelevant technicalities. The JTWC has name it a cyclone, the MMS should follow suit, so that the people understand the gravity of the storm.
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YESTERDAY
NOAA has declared the storm a "Topical Cyclone Two". According to its observations the storm had wind speed of 65+ Kmph at 1200 Hrs GMT today.
UPDATE NOVEMBER 28. 2014
The depression is 550 Kms North-East of Mauritius now. 0445 Hours GMT. Wind speeds of 55 Kmph. A deep depression is what met guys call it. Just a step away from a cyclone. Forecasts say it will intensify in a few hours. It will throw winds up to 70-80 Kmph. Technically it should be named a cyclone (Bansi) then. But if the MMS folks are as stingy as the Indian Met guys in naming storms, it will not be named.
By the time it passes Mauritius (It will pass from the east about 50-100 Kms) on Sunday late evening it will be weakened to a depression. Rodrigues Island will face stronger winds and heavier rainfall than Mauritius as the storm will pass right through the island. Mauritius will have intermittent showers till Tuesday. Rodrigues will see heavy precipitation.
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| STORM WILL BE STRONGEST AT 0600 HRS GMT TODAY. WINDS OF 45-75 KMPH |
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SPECIAL UPDATE November 27
The JTWC has taken cognizance of the storm. it says the possibility of it turning into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is high.
UPDATE: NOVEMBER 27, 2014
The depression lies about 850 kms NE of Mauritius. Winds are 55 kmph. Location: 13.2 S, 66.2 E at 0000 hours GMT today. There is no significant change as to its future course from the earlier update.
It's location now is 13.58 S, 64.91 E (0400 Hrs GMT). That is about 800 kms NE of Mauritius.
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| SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0300 HOURS (GMT) |
SPECIAL UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014
Latest model forecasts indicate that the depression that lies about 1000 NE of Mauritius is going to intensify more than expected. It is already throwing winds of 55 kmph to 65 knph. By Friday this will rise to 75-85 kmph. The threshold for the Met guys at Mauritius is 65 kmph to name it "Bansi". Let us see when they do the christening. My suspicion is even the JTWC folks will jump in soon.
The storm will not intensify very much. It will weaken by the time its winds start lashing Mauritius by Friday night. Anyway there is going to be a lot of rainfall in the island till December 2, 2014. And winds of course. There may be wind gusts of 65 kmph.
UPDATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2014
The depression lay at Latitude 12 South, longitude 68.9 East at 0000 Hrs, GMT today. It has average winds of 55 Kmph gusting up to 65 Kmph. In the next few days it will move towards Mauritius. Latest forecasts say it is unlikely to intensify any further. Looks like the Met guys at MMC are not going to christen it "Bansi". The system will reach Mauritius shores on Saturday.
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| IR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DEPRESSION TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT , NOV 26, 2014 |
| UPDATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2014
There is a large swirling mass of clouds in the Indian Ocean below Diego Garcia Islands. Only the environment is not very favourable for it to transform into a big storm. Nevertheless, the system sustains. Presently it lies at 9.9 degrees south latitude, 70.3 degrees east longitude with winds of 45 Kmph gusting up to 55 Kmph. It is a depression now and lies 400 Kms SSW of the British Indian Ocean islands. It has moved westward in the last 24 hours. . Over the next few days it will move SW towards Mauritius. It will rapidly intensify into a 75-90 Kmph cyclone on November 30, near Mauritius. Very heavy rains are likely in Mauritius in November end. About 10 inches.
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An Infra-Red Image of the system taken today at 0400 hours GMT
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| LATEST UPDATE NOV 24, 2014 CYCLONE "BANSI" WILL HIT MAURITIUS ON NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 1, 2014 WITH 80-100 KMPH WINDS  |
| XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: DECEMBER 1, 2014: MAURITIUS IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER DEPRESSION WHILE CYCLONE BANSI IS APPROACHING. |
The Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka extending till Indonesia is in ferment. Very unstable atmosphere. Out of this turbulence three storms are going to emerge. One will move to south India and Sri Lanka and give these areas a thorough drenching. The other two will move into southern Indian Ocean.
We have been talking of cyclone Bansi for a while now. The low pressure has already formed. It lies 250 Kms SSE of British Indian Ocean Islands throwing up winds of 35 Kmph.
This system will intensify into a depression in the next 24 hours and move towards Mauritius. Chances are the depression will not intensify into cyclone strength. It will affect Mauritius and Reunion Islands on November 28, 2014. Winds will be 50-60 Kmph. A borderline case between a cyclone and a depression.
WHAT IS NOTABLE is another system will follow this depression in its wake. That will be cyclone Bansi. A stronger storm, it will reach cyclone status on November 29, the time the earlier depression will be drenching Mauritius. Present indications are Cyclone Bansi will hit Mauritius, perhaps in early December.
SEE CYCLONE BANSI LIVE
SEE CYCLONE BANSI LIVE
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