CHANCE OF ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE "PHAILIN" THIS MAY?

Now that Cyclone Mahasen has disintegrated rapidly and moved over we can deal with a new possibility. A tropical storm in the Arabian Sea? Is PHAILIN cyclone coming this May?

Forecast models have been flashing signs of its possibility. But the problem is that prediction models do not say with certainty and in successive forecasts that the storm in the Arabian Sea is coming.

So we cannot predict with any certainty.

OMAN RAINS, MAY 30, 2013. WILL IT HAPPEN?

Yes, forecast models do say that a low pressure area will arise in the Arabian Sea off the Indian coast  near Kerala on around May 22, 2013. They further say that the system will move WNW and finally hit southern Oman on May 30, 2013 and bring very heavy rains there.

When the forecast crystallizes into something concrete, we can be sure of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea this May.

Forecasts say only a low pressure area for now. Will turn into a cyclone? Time will tell.

We will keep you informed

LATEST CYCLONE "MAHASEN" UPDATE, MAY 14, 2013: Now Moving Towards Bangla Coast, Will Hit On May 17

RAIN PREDICTION MAP: VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN BANGLADESH ON MAY 17, 2013.

In the last few hours Mahasen was changing course. Now it is slowly curving a path to Bangladesh. And it is expected to grow in intensity. In the next two days it will touch wind speed of about 130 kph.

It is expected to touch the Bangladesh coast on May 17, 2013. Very strong gale will lash the coastal areas with speeds up to 120 kph. It will be accompanied with heavy rains. Intermittent rains have already started in the country which will increase as the storm comes closer.

We are basing our predictions mainly on what the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) says. Please note that the IMD differs in its forecast. IMD says wind speeds will be much lesser. But now even IMD says that the wind speed will be 90+ kph.

We will keep you updated.

A TROPICAL STORM ("PHAILIN"?) TO HIT OMAN ON MAY 27, 2013

We had predicted two days ago (May 11) that the Arabian Sea was now going to churn out a cyclone in the next ten days. Forecasts are consistently supporting this forecast so we felt impelled (we have been getting many queries) to write these lines today.

Yes,  a storm (PHAILIN?) is likely to form in the Arabian Sea near the Kerala coast on the 21st of May, 2013. It will then move more or less in a NW direction in the coming days. It will strengthen all the time and move towards Oman. It is likely to hit Oman on May 27, 2013.

It is too early to say about the size of the tropical storm but indications are that PHAILIN will be a big tropical storm. And it will bring lots of rains to Oman from May 27.

We will keep updating you with the latest forecasts about the possible tropical storm in the coming days.

RAIN PREDICTION MAP: MAY 21 TO MAY 27, 2013: OWING TO  EXPECTED ARABIAN SEA STORM

Latest JTWC FORECAST (May 12, 2.30 PM IST) For MAHASEN Says It Will Be A Much Bigger Storm

MAHASEN WILL HIT BANGLADESH COAST NEAR CHITTAGONG ON MAY 16, 2013. VERY HEAVY WINDS WILL LASH THE BANGLADESH COAST.

We had said earlier that there is a difference in how the IMD and the JTWC predict the future of Mahasen cyclone. The latest JTWC bulletin (issued today at 2.30 PM, IST) says Mahsen will be bigger storm than what IMD (and most media) says. IMD says the maximum wind speeds Mahasen will throw up will be 55-65 kmph. JTWC says the maximum speeds will be an astounding 150 kmph.

Below is a gist of what the latest JTWC forecast says....

TC 01B (MAHASEN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS..... IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD..... THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AS A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE.

JTWC PREDICTED WIND SPEEDS AND POSITION OF MAHASEN: (1 Knot= 1.852 Kmph)

PRESENT: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KNOTS, GUSTS 055 KNOTS

 MAY 12 1800 HRS UTC --- 10.8N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KNOTS, GUSTS 070 KNOTS

MAY 13, 0600 UTC --- 11.8N 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KNOTS, GUSTS 075 KNOTS

MAY 13, 1800 UTC --- 13.0N 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KNOTS, GUSTS 080 KNOTS

MAY 14, 0600 UTC --- 14.3N 86.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KNOTS, GUSTS 085 KNOTS

MAY 15, 0600UTC --- 17.0N 88.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KNOTS, GUSTS 100 KNOTS

 MAY 16, 0600UTC --- 20.4N 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KNOTS, GUSTS 085 KNOTS

MAY 17, 0600 UTC --- 23.7N 94.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KNOTS, GUSTS 050 KNOTS

Latest May 12, 2013, 3.30 PM) Forecasted Path of MAHASEN

CYCLONE "MAHASEN" LATEST UPDATE: 1.00 PM, MAY 12, 2013:INDIAN MET SAYS WEAKER, JTWC SAYS BIGGER

Rainfall Prediction Map: Mahasen Cyclone

There seems to slight difference in opinion between the two main expert forecasters for cyclone MAHASEN.

The Indian Met Department (IMD) says Mahasen has weakened and will remain a weak storm (65-75 Kmph) till it makes landfall on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. IMD says Mahasen will slip between cyclone strength when it makes landfall on early morning May 17, 2013 (IST).

JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) says Mahasen will be a much stronger storm. Touching 155 kmph on May 16, 2013. JTWC says ground zero will be Chittagong, May 17 early morning.

We will keep giving you the latest updates.

AFTER "MAHASEN" Arabian Sea Cyclone "PHAILIN" To HIT OMAN (OR GUJARAT) On MAY 27, 2013?

Even as Cyclone Mahasen grows in strength and prepares to hit Chittagong, Bangladesh on May 15, 2013, latest forecasts say the North Indian Ocean may throw up another cyclone (Phailin) this May. The expected tropical storm may hit Oman on May 27, 2013.

Indications are that Phailin is going to be a big storm. Bigger than Mahasen. It will take form around May 21, 2013 between the Horn of Africa and the Kerala coast and head NW straight towards Oman.

Another possibility is it may strike Gujarat (India) on the 27th of May, 2013.

Either way "Phailin" is gonna be very big

Keep reading this site.

SCENARIO 1: Target Oman

Animated forecasted path of Cyclone Phailin: May 23 to May 27, 2013

SCENARIO 2: Target Gujarat

Alternate scenario: Phailin may hit Gujarat. Projected path of Cyclone Phailin May 23 to May 27, 2013

What You Did Not Know......Phail In is a Thai girl name. The meaning of the name is `Sapphire `

LATEST UPDATE BAY OF BENGAL MAHASEN CYCLONE: 01B (8.00 AM IST, MAY 11, 2013):Target Chittagong, Bangladesh On May 15, 2013

The Indian Met Dept has finally christened the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal as Mahasen .Click here to read its prediction

Latest Predicted Path of Tropical Cyclone 1B (Mahasen?) May 11, 2013

Latest forecasts for tropical cyclone 1B in the Bay of Bengal says that its target is going to be Chittagong, Bangladesh. Mahasen is likely to hit the Bangladesh coast on late evening of May 15, 2013. Maximum speeds are likely to be 85 knots (155 knph) which is nothing to sneeze at.

We will keep you posted.

"MAHASEN" CYCLONE UPDATE MAY 10, 2013 (11.40 AM UTC): Big Big Storm In The Making Heading To Myanmar Finally: ALSO PROJECTED PATH MAP

ExtremeWeather Prediction Map: Projected path of Cyclone "Mahasen" according to JTWC.

CLICK HERE TO SEE LARGER IMAGE

Latest forecast by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)  says the long awaited tropical storm (We predicted it ten days before on May 1, 2013) in the Bay of Bengal has finally been spawned. JTWC has named it 01B. The low pressure area has grown up to a big storm.

Mahasen (when, IMD?) has grown into manhood .

JTWC says Mahasen is gonna  grow to a big storm with winds of knots (167 kmph). Maximum winds will be 110 knots (200 kmph). This is going to be on May 14, 2013 when Mahasen will be at its strongest. It is going to throw up waves of 10 feet in the sea. Nasty man this Mahasen is going to be.

Mahasen is likely to make landfall into Myanmar on May 15, 2013.

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The Indian Met Department issued this bulletin today at 07.15 PM (IST)
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 10th May 2013 near latitude 05.00N and longitude 92.00E, about 450 km south-southwest of Car Nicobar, 1250 km east-southeast of Trincomalee , 1550 km southeast of Chennai and 1900 km south of Chittagong. The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would move initially northwestwards during next 48 hrs. and recurve thereafter northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

BAY OF BENGAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B UPDATE MAY 10, 2013 (10.50 UTC): JTWC CHRISTENED IT 01B

The storm has formed. JTWC has given it the name 01B. Will IMD name it as Mahasen?

The predicted path remains as we said before. Target Myanmar on May 13, 2013.

We will keep you posted.

BAY OF BENGAL STORM UPDATE, MAY 10, 2013: WILL SHUN INDIA, BANGLADESH, HIT MYANMAR ON MAY 13, 2013

XtremeWeather Predicition Map: The Bay of Bengal Depression crosses over into Maynmar on May 13, 2013

BAY OF BENGAL STORM UPDATE: MAY 10, 2013, 6.10 AM (IST) 12.40 AM UTC: As we had predicted before a low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal SE of the Sri Lankan coast. Forecast models predict the low pressure area will strengthen into a depression which is likely to give heavy rains to Myanmar from May 13, 2013 onwards.

Initially it will move north-westerly towards the Indian coast then turn away towards Myanmar.

It seems unlikely that this system will gain cyclone strength and a name. Though forecasts say it will at times touch 50 knots speed on its journey to Myanmar.

Will IMD honor it with a name?

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LATEST FROM JWTC.....

AT 100600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
4.8N 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.

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Here is latest forecast for the Bay of Bengal tropical Storm (Mahasen?) from METOFFICE

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.05.2013
        CYCLONIC STORM 92B        ANALYSED POSITION :  4.7N  93.7E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.05.2013   4.7N  93.7E   MODERATE
 12UTC 10.05.2013   6.4N  93.4E   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.05.2013   7.7N  92.4E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.05.2013   8.8N  90.5E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.05.2013   9.7N  89.4E   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.05.2013  10.5N  88.5E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.05.2013  11.4N  88.2E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.05.2013  12.6N  88.5E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.05.2013  14.7N  88.8E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.05.2013  16.8N  89.8E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.05.2013  19.1N  90.9E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 15.05.2013  20.7N  93.2E   MODERATE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 16.05.2013  23.8N  97.0E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

**************************************************************

XtremeWeather Weather Map: Infra-red image of the Bay of Bengal: Time Morning May 10, 2013

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XtremeWeather Image: Satellite visible image of Bay of Bengal. Time: May 10, 2013, 9.00 AM UTC (2.30 PM IST)

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TROPICAL STORM BAY OF BENGAL FORECAST UPDATE MAY 8, 2013: DEEP DEPRESSION TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO BANGLADESH MAY 15, 2013

XtremeWeather Rainfall Prediction Map: Bay of Bengal Deep Depression moves into Bangladesh on May 15, 2013 bringing very heavy rains. 

As we had predicted before a low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal SE of the Sri Lankan coast. Forecast models predict a depression in the Bay of Bengal which is likely to give heavy rains to Bangladesh and the Indian North East states on May 15, 2013.

Now this system as it moves north into the Bay of Bengal may intensify but I do not think the IMD is going to give it a name (Mahasen) because the top speeds it will muster will be about 60-65 kmph. Anyway present forecasts say it will weaken back into a depression and make landfall into Bangladesh.

Disappointing stuff.

But let us keep our fingers and watch what happens in the next few days.

We will keep you posted.

But for those interested here are the storm warnings given by official met bodies.

JTWC: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
FORMATIVE BANDING HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

METOFFICE: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.05.2013

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 :  7.5N  87.9E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.05.2013   7.5N  87.9E     WEAK

 12UTC 11.05.2013   7.6N  88.4E     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.05.2013   8.7N  87.7E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.05.2013  10.0N  87.1E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.05.2013  11.3N  86.7E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.05.2013  12.5N  86.7E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.05.2013  14.2N  86.7E   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

INDIAN MET DEPT: A low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood associated upper air cyclonic  circulation  extending  upto mid­tropospheric  levels. Ocean ­atmospheric  conditions  suggests that the system would concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours.

LATEST FORECAST MAY 8, 2013: NO MAHASEN JUST A DEPRESSION HEADED TO MYANMAR

LATEST FORECAST MAY 8, 2013, 4.40 AM UTC (10.10 AM IST)

How the mighty have fallen in the last few days! Once forecast models hinted at a massive cyclone called MAHASEN. Today they say a piddly little low pressure will form in Bay of Bengal around May 10, 2013.

It (may turn into a depression) will potter around the Bay of Bengal for 4-5 days and then bring some rains in Myanmar on May 15, 2013.

Mahasen will never grow strong enough to deserve a name.

We will write again if Mother Nature changes her mind again. A big storm that is.

CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE MAY 7, 2013: Bangladesh On May 15

XtremeWeather Weather Forecast Map: May 15, 2013: MAHASEN about to strike the WB-Bangladesh coast. The yellow color is very heavy rainfall.

We had said once that Mother Nature is difficult to fathom. How true!

Latest forecast for forthcoming tropical storm "Mahasen" says it is going to be Bangladesh on May 15, 2013. (Aside: One wonders if it will be Myanmar next!).

The birth of MAHASEN will take place tomorrow in the Bay of Bengal as predicted before as a low pressure area. From May 11th, 2013, it will grow up into a tropical cyclone and move NNW for the next few days and make landfall on the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast on May 15, 2013.

Under its influence Orissa, West Bengal and Bangladesh will face strong winds and torrential rains from May 14th, 2013.

Keep reading this site for the twists and turn in the saga of big bad MAHASEN.

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The IMD had this to say today.....

An upper air cyclonic circulation over central parts of south Bay of Bengal extending upto mid ­tropospheric levels persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.

MAHASEN UPDATE: MAY 7, 2013: Low Pressure Area To Form Tomorrow

Mahasen about to hit Andhra-Orissa coast on May 14th, 2013. The purple color means very strong winds.

Mahasen will take birth as a low pressure on May 8, 2013 ESE of the Sri Lankan coast. It will then just toddle around more or less stationary for the next three days. On May 11, 2013 the low pressure area will start gaining strength and turn into a cyclone. It will be christened "Mahasen" then. On May 11, 2013.

It will move  in a NNW direction  and and then northwards move  towards Visakhapatnam. Tamil Nadu escapes from its fury altogether according to latest forecasts. It will slam into the Andhra-Orissa border at Gopal-At-Sea on  May 14, 2013 and then lose power. Coastal Orissa (Gopal-on-sea) will bear the brunt of the fury.

Mahasen will have maximum winds of about 100 Kmph. Pretty powerful stuff that.

The rains?  Tamil Nadu will get some rains. Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal, Bangladesh, and NE states will get most of the deluge from May 13, 2013.. Heavy rains in these areas till the 20th of May, 2013. Floods would be better word.

Winds? Strong gales on the Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts from May 14, 2013.

XtremeWeather Map: Latest Projected Path Of Cyclone Mahasen: May 10 to May 14, 2013

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The Metoffice, UK's weather department, has given this forecast for Mahasen....


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.05.2013

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 :  6.3N  82.5E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.05.2013   6.3N  82.5E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.05.2013   6.7N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.05.2013   7.4N  81.3E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.05.2013   6.9N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.05.2013   7.4N  81.2E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.05.2013   7.0N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.05.2013   7.9N  81.7E     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.05.2013  10.3N  85.5E   MODERATE     LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.05.2013  11.6N  84.9E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.05.2013  13.2N  84.9E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

-------------------------------------------------

XtremeWeather Rain Forecast Map Because Of Mahasen

MAY 6, 2013: CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE: To Make Landfall Near Visakhapatnam May 12, 2013

The forecast for the hour remains basically the same. Mahasen will form as a low pressure area east of the Sri Lankan coast on May 8, 2013. It will then move in a north westerly direction towards Chennai then swing northwards touching the Andhra coast near Vizag on May 12, 2013.

After that it will start weakening below cyclone strength and move along the coast bringing heavy rains to coastal Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal, Bangladesh and Indian NE states for the next four days.

Very heavy rains are likely in the areas mentioned. Call it a deluge if you like.

Mahasen is going to be a big storm.

XtremeWeather Forecast Map: Predicted path of Cyclone MAHASEN, May 8, 2013 to May  13, 2013.

---------------------------------------------------------------
One of our readers, Rao,  has written in a very valuable technical piece of forecast for MAHASEN. We quote part of his contribution.

Mahasen’ super cyclone forecast for Andhra Pradesh:2013, may 8-15 Andhra Pradesh super cyclonic storm ‘Mahasen’: (a) SOI will be within ±5 limit (b) Madden Julian oscillation index will be in enhanced 2 or 3 phase (c) nino3 will have negative value
Note 1: 2010, may 17-20 ‘Laila’ has not become super cyclone due to MJO index is in suppressed 4 phase. However ‘Mahasen’ will attain super cyclonic strength due to favorable energetic 2 or 3 phase enhanced MJO index before crossing Andhra Pradesh coast.

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The Indian Met. Dept. has this to say today....(May 6, 2013)

♦  A low pressure area may develop  over southwest Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours 

As We Predict Mahasen, Official Weatherman Remains Non-committal

While we have been giving the latest forecast updates about the impending tropical storm "Mahasen" since the last five days, the official weatherman (read IMD) remains cautious and non-committal.

Here is what he says....(From Hindu, May 5, 2013)

However, officials of the meteorological department said there was no possibility of a low pressure development over the next few days. 

S.R. Ramanan, director of Area Cyclone Warning Centre, said that sometimes, such systems did not develop into low-pressure areas. There is, however, some cloud cover about 250 km west of Chennai, he said. “We are studying the weather models to see if it will bring rain to the city,” he said

MAY 5, 2013: CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE: Ground Zero: Visakhapatnam, Andhra May 13, 2013

Xtreme Weather Prediction Map: Tropical storm "Mahasen" on May 12, 2013

Cyclone Mahasen which is expected to be formed in the southern Bay of Bengal on May 8, 2013 is likely to make landfall at Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh on May 13, 2013. After touching the Andhra coast Mahasen will skim over the Orissa, West Bengal coast weakening all the time.

Very heavy rains are expected at coastal Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal and Bangladesh from May 12 to May 16, 2013 because of Mahasen

Mahasen after forming east of the Sri Lankan coast on May 8 or May 9 will then move in a NWN direction and touch Andhra on May 13. It will grow in strength all time.

Another forecast model says that Mahasen will make landfall at Chennai on May 11, 2013. It also says that it will not be as powerful a storm as predicted by the former model.

All models agree that the Indian east coast, Bangladesh and Indian NE states are in for very heavy precipitation till May 16, 2013.

Talking of the Arabian Sea, forecast models say there is going to be a heavy build-up of clouds in southern Arabian Sea around the 20th of May. Experience tells us that such cloud build-up in the seas usually spawns a storm. A cyclone in the Arabian Sea in the end of May? Who knows?

MAY 2, 2013 CYCLONE MAHASEN FORECAST UPDATE : Arabian Sea and Maybe Mumbai Now!

We have said yesterday that the north Indian Ocean is going to spawn a cyclone around May 10, 2013.

Well, yesterday it was Bay of Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Today it is Arabian Sea and target Mumbai.

Mumbai rarely gets hit by tropical cyclones, so it is still early times to say anything. Arabian Sea storms generally hit Gujarat, Pakistan or the Oman coast.

Anyway for those interested, here is the forecasted path of Cyclone Mahasen.

Forecasted path of Cyclone Mahasen. From May 8, 2013 (near the Kerala coast) to May 12, 2013 (hitting the Konkan coast)