BAY OF BENGAL STORM UPDATE, MAY 10, 2013: WILL SHUN INDIA, BANGLADESH, HIT MYANMAR ON MAY 13, 2013

XtremeWeather Predicition Map: The Bay of Bengal Depression crosses over into Maynmar on May 13, 2013

BAY OF BENGAL STORM UPDATE: MAY 10, 2013, 6.10 AM (IST) 12.40 AM UTC: As we had predicted before a low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal SE of the Sri Lankan coast. Forecast models predict the low pressure area will strengthen into a depression which is likely to give heavy rains to Myanmar from May 13, 2013 onwards.

Initially it will move north-westerly towards the Indian coast then turn away towards Myanmar.

It seems unlikely that this system will gain cyclone strength and a name. Though forecasts say it will at times touch 50 knots speed on its journey to Myanmar.

Will IMD honor it with a name?

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LATEST FROM JWTC.....

AT 100600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
4.8N 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.

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Here is latest forecast for the Bay of Bengal tropical Storm (Mahasen?) from METOFFICE

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.05.2013
        CYCLONIC STORM 92B        ANALYSED POSITION :  4.7N  93.7E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.05.2013   4.7N  93.7E   MODERATE
 12UTC 10.05.2013   6.4N  93.4E   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.05.2013   7.7N  92.4E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.05.2013   8.8N  90.5E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.05.2013   9.7N  89.4E   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.05.2013  10.5N  88.5E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.05.2013  11.4N  88.2E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.05.2013  12.6N  88.5E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.05.2013  14.7N  88.8E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.05.2013  16.8N  89.8E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.05.2013  19.1N  90.9E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 15.05.2013  20.7N  93.2E   MODERATE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 16.05.2013  23.8N  97.0E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

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XtremeWeather Weather Map: Infra-red image of the Bay of Bengal: Time Morning May 10, 2013

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XtremeWeather Image: Satellite visible image of Bay of Bengal. Time: May 10, 2013, 9.00 AM UTC (2.30 PM IST)

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