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| XtremeWeather Rainfall Prediction Map: Bay of Bengal Deep Depression moves into Bangladesh on May 15, 2013 bringing very heavy rains. |
As we had predicted before a low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal SE of the Sri Lankan coast. Forecast models predict a depression in the Bay of Bengal which is likely to give heavy rains to Bangladesh and the Indian North East states on May 15, 2013.
Now this system as it moves north into the Bay of Bengal may intensify but I do not think the IMD is going to give it a name (Mahasen) because the top speeds it will muster will be about 60-65 kmph. Anyway present forecasts say it will weaken back into a depression and make landfall into Bangladesh.
Disappointing stuff.
But let us keep our fingers and watch what happens in the next few days.
We will keep you posted.
But for those interested here are the storm warnings given by official met bodies.
JTWC: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
METOFFICE: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.05.2013
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 7.5N 87.9E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.05.2013 7.5N 87.9E WEAK
12UTC 11.05.2013 7.6N 88.4E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.05.2013 8.7N 87.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.05.2013 10.0N 87.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.05.2013 11.3N 86.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.05.2013 12.5N 86.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.05.2013 14.2N 86.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
INDIAN MET DEPT: A low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto midtropospheric levels. Ocean atmospheric conditions suggests that the system would concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours.
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