IMD's Weak 2015 Monsoon Prediction Not The Gospel Truth

The Indian Meteorological Department has expressed fears of El Nino causing a weak 2015 monsoon. But this is to be taken with a pinch of salt. The IMD's predictions in the past have often been wide off the mark.

We reproduce below what the Wall Street Journal has to say about this.

India’s weather department this week unveiled its annual early forecast of how much rain the monsoon will likely dump on the Subcontinent this year. A precise prediction is crucial for the hundreds of millions of farmers who depend on the annual rains but history shows that these early forecasts are usually wrong.

Last year the India Meteorological Department predicted a slightly weak monsoon, but India got a drought. The year before it forecast below-average rains, and the subcontinent got well above average. In 2009 when India had its worst drought in decades, the IMD had predicted a normal monsoon.

The government’s weather watchers use the average rainfall for the last 50 years to define what is normal. If the rainfall for the June-through-September rainy season falls between 96% and 104% of the average, then that is a normal or good monsoon.

Rainfall of less than 90% is considered a drought, rainfall of more than 110% of the average is considered an excess.

The department has been monitoring the moody monsoon for more than a century and over the years has had to repeatedly tweak its forecasting model and acquire new technology to better predict the rains. But its earliest predictions still leave a lot to be desired.

While the IMD allows for a wide margin of error of 5% above or below its April predictions, it still rarely gets it right.  Even within that 10 percentage point margin of error, its early prediction has been right in only six of the last 21 years.

NOAA Site: Cyclone Hudhud Had Winds of 215 Kph When It Hit Vizag On Sunday (October 12, 2014)

(Image Courtesy: Indian Express) Vizag airport after the storm

As we had feared in our earlier article (as the storm was approaching), Tropical Cyclone Hudhud has left a trail of devastation in Visakhapatnam, the Ground Zero.

There is a reason why statues have been toppled, cars hung from trees, and Vizag airport looks like a war zone. Contrary to what the IMD (And the Indian media) said the winds at landfall, at 11:30 AM on Black Sunday were not 180-190 Kph, but 215 Kph. The site of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) records the wind speed at 115 knots (About 213 Kph) at the time of landfall.

The Indian Navy had recorded wind speed at 200 Kph.

Some Indian media sites have patted IMD on the back and patted themselves on the back ("We Indians have got smarter") for the accurate prediction. (180-195Kph)

The JTWC (and our site) had repeatedly warned of winds of 200+ Kph (Gusting up to 250 Kph).

I guess the xenophobic "Us better than them" mentality persists in many Indian minds.

We do appreciate (In fact, Kudos) the constant updates the IMD was giving out prior to landfall of the storm, but in the end, the difference of an extra of 35 Kph made a lot of difference.

Indian Met. Dept. (IMD) Confirms Nanauk Is Breaking Up

The Indian Met. Dept. (IMD) in its 1430 hrs IST (0900 AM GMT) June 13, 2014 bulletin on cyclone Nanauk confirmed that the storm is disintegrating.

Nanauk is no more. The system is below cyclone strength, Just a depression.

We shall keep watching the storm for the next few hours to detect any signs of rejuvenation.

Latest IMD Nanauk Bulletin: 0000 Hrs GMT, June 12, 2014

Why this delay in naming tropical cyclone 02A as Nanauk?

Frankly, we are confused.

The rules for naming storms says that for Northern Indian Ocean the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) is responsible. And when a storm system has sustained winds in excess of 62 kph the IMD is supposed to name the tropical cyclone. Now this cyclone raging in the Arabian Sea at present has sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kph) since last night.

The JTWC  calls it a tropical cyclone. Then why is the IMD not giving it a name? The latest bulletin by the IMD talks about the "low pressure will intensify into a depression".

The fact is that TC-02A is already raging in the Arabian Sea and intensifying even further. We are beyond the "depression" and "deep depression". It is already a cyclone.

We are mystified.

An news item published in the Hindu a couple of hours ago says...

The US Centre (JTWC) has currently given the Arabian Sea system a ‘numbered cyclone’ (equivalent of a monsoon depression) status by giving it the tag ‘02A.’ Numbered cyclone status is penultimate step to naming a cyclone (in the instant case, it will be called Nanauk, a name suggested by Myanmar as per the naming protocol).

This does not clarify things. It seems all meaningless bureaucratic jargon.

India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale
Category	Sustained winds (3-min average)
Super Cyclonic Storm	>120 kt >222 km/h
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm	64–119 kt 118–221 km/h
Severe Cyclonic Storm	48–63 kt 88–117 km/h
Cyclonic Storm	34–47 kt 62–87 km/h
Deep Depression	28–33 kt 52–61 km/h
Depression	≤27 kt ≤51 km/h

Source: Wikipedia

NANAUK HAS FORMED! Tropical Depression 02A Turned Into Tropical Cyclone 02A Last Night 10 PM GMT

Sat. image of Arabian Sea tropical cyclone 02A taken 2 hours ago at 3 AM GMT, June 10, 2014

The depression in the Arabian Sea has turned into a tropical cyclone last night (June 9, 2014) at 10 PM GMT. says the JTWC. The JTWC has named it 02A.

The criteria for naming a tropical cyclone is that it should throw up sustained winds in excess of 62 Kph. The JTWC says that the system in the Arabian Sea had sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kph) last night at 10 PM GMT.

So the Arabian Sea tropical cyclone has formed. So we can expect the storm being name NANAUK soon.

IT WILL BE A MASSIVE STORM. JTWC WARNS THAT ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE NORMAL WINDS WILL BE AN AWESOME 130 KPH. MAY GUST UP TO A DEVASTATING 158 KPH.

The JTWC has given the track and predicted path and the expected winds speeds.....The speeds are given in knots (KT). 1 knot=1.85 kph

 FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z (June 10, 1200 hrs UTC) --- 15.9N 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 16.5N 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 16.9N 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.3N 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 17.9N 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 18.3N 61.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 18.6N 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

Satellie image of cyclone 02A issued by JTWC 2330 hrs UTC, June 9, 2014

SEETHE CYCLONE LIVE
CLICK ON THE MAP ANYWHERE TO KNOW THE WIND SPEED THERE

CYCLONE "MAHASEN" LATEST UPDATE: 1.00 PM, MAY 12, 2013:INDIAN MET SAYS WEAKER, JTWC SAYS BIGGER

Rainfall Prediction Map: Mahasen Cyclone

There seems to slight difference in opinion between the two main expert forecasters for cyclone MAHASEN.

The Indian Met Department (IMD) says Mahasen has weakened and will remain a weak storm (65-75 Kmph) till it makes landfall on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. IMD says Mahasen will slip between cyclone strength when it makes landfall on early morning May 17, 2013 (IST).

JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) says Mahasen will be a much stronger storm. Touching 155 kmph on May 16, 2013. JTWC says ground zero will be Chittagong, May 17 early morning.

We will keep giving you the latest updates.