MAHASEN UPDATE: MAY 7, 2013: Low Pressure Area To Form Tomorrow

Mahasen about to hit Andhra-Orissa coast on May 14th, 2013. The purple color means very strong winds.
Mahasen will take birth as a low pressure on May 8, 2013 ESE of the Sri Lankan coast. It will then just toddle around more or less stationary for the next three days. On May 11, 2013 the low pressure area will start gaining strength and turn into a cyclone. It will be christened "Mahasen" then. On May 11, 2013.

It will move  in a NNW direction  and and then northwards move  towards Visakhapatnam. Tamil Nadu escapes from its fury altogether according to latest forecasts. It will slam into the Andhra-Orissa border at Gopal-At-Sea on  May 14, 2013 and then lose power. Coastal Orissa (Gopal-on-sea) will bear the brunt of the fury.

Mahasen will have maximum winds of about 100 Kmph. Pretty powerful stuff that.

The rains?  Tamil Nadu will get some rains. Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal, Bangladesh, and NE states will get most of the deluge from May 13, 2013.. Heavy rains in these areas till the 20th of May, 2013. Floods would be better word.

Winds? Strong gales on the Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts from May 14, 2013.

XtremeWeather Map: Latest Projected Path Of Cyclone Mahasen: May 10 to May 14, 2013


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The Metoffice, UK's weather department, has given this forecast for Mahasen....


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.05.2013



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS


FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 :  6.3N  82.5E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.05.2013   6.3N  82.5E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.05.2013   6.7N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.05.2013   7.4N  81.3E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.05.2013   6.9N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.05.2013   7.4N  81.2E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.05.2013   7.0N  81.6E     WEAK       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.05.2013   7.9N  81.7E     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.05.2013  10.3N  85.5E   MODERATE     LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.05.2013  11.6N  84.9E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.05.2013  13.2N  84.9E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


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XtremeWeather Rain Forecast Map Because Of Mahasen

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

can the moisture over arabian sea in second image also spawn a cyclone because it is looking strong??

Unknown said...

It is possible. We have mentioned in one of the articles that rain forecast maps for May 22, 2013 show possibility of a lot of rains. This is unusual for this time of the year. May be the monsoon is coming sooner. And the huge amount of moisture may throw up another cyclone, this time in the Arabian Sea, around 23rd of May, 2013.

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