The forecast for the hour remains basically the same. Mahasen will form as a low pressure area east of the Sri Lankan coast on May 8, 2013. It will then move in a north westerly direction towards Chennai then swing northwards touching the Andhra coast near Vizag on May 12, 2013.After that it will start weakening below cyclone strength and move along the coast bringing heavy rains to coastal Andhra, Orissa, West Bengal, Bangladesh and Indian NE states for the next four days.
Very heavy rains are likely in the areas mentioned. Call it a deluge if you like.
Mahasen is going to be a big storm.
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| XtremeWeather Forecast Map: Predicted path of Cyclone MAHASEN, May 8, 2013 to May 13, 2013. |
One of our readers, Rao, has written in a very valuable technical piece of forecast for MAHASEN. We quote part of his contribution.
Mahasen’ super cyclone forecast for Andhra Pradesh:2013, may 8-15 Andhra Pradesh super cyclonic storm ‘Mahasen’: (a) SOI will be within ±5 limit (b) Madden Julian oscillation index will be in enhanced 2 or 3 phase (c) nino3 will have negative value
Note 1: 2010, may 17-20 ‘Laila’ has not become super cyclone due to MJO index is in suppressed 4 phase. However ‘Mahasen’ will attain super cyclonic strength due to favorable energetic 2 or 3 phase enhanced MJO index before crossing Andhra Pradesh coast.
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The Indian Met. Dept. has this to say today....(May 6, 2013)
♦ A low pressure area may develop over southwest Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours
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