BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND: Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015
CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0430 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015
LATEST POSITION OF CYCLONE BANSI NOW: Current location of storm: 18.25*South, 61.40*East. Current sustained wind speed: 145 kph, gusts up to 180 kph. Bansi is 270 kilometers NW of Rodrigues Island. Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015
EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.
We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015
THE JTWC EXPECTS CYCLONE BANSI TO BE A SUPER CYCLONE SOON: Bad news from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for folks in the Rodrigues Island. In its latest bulletin issued at 0900 Hours GMT, today (January 15, 2015), it has a scary prediction That Cyclone Bansi which had weakened greatly yesterday (Leading to the Local Met saying "No Cyclone") is intensifying very rapidly and is gonna become a Category 5 hurricane or a super Cyclone, which ever you like it. In a few hours, even as we write this. And that it is going to stay a super cyclone for another 3 days, till January 18, 2015.The JTWC says Bansi has an eye of 85 kilometers. Translate that as big, big trouble for Rodrigues Island. At its peak, the JTWC foretells, Bansi is gonna have howling winds of 270 kph, gusting up to 320 kph. Nature at its nastiest. Folks in Rodrigues: Please take all precautions and take care. We would like to add here that we do not support this prediction. We think the winds will be in the range of 100 kph to 140 kph. It depends on which quadrant of the cyclone passes through Rodrigues. Some are more windier than others. The nightmare prediction from JTWC should be taken with a pinch of salt.
1030 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015
EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.
We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015
CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0430 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015
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| 0300 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 16, 2015.. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI |
LATEST POSITION OF CYCLONE BANSI NOW: Current location of storm: 18.25*South, 61.40*East. Current sustained wind speed: 145 kph, gusts up to 180 kph. Bansi is 270 kilometers NW of Rodrigues Island. Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015
EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.
We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015
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| 1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI |
THE JTWC EXPECTS CYCLONE BANSI TO BE A SUPER CYCLONE SOON: Bad news from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for folks in the Rodrigues Island. In its latest bulletin issued at 0900 Hours GMT, today (January 15, 2015), it has a scary prediction That Cyclone Bansi which had weakened greatly yesterday (Leading to the Local Met saying "No Cyclone") is intensifying very rapidly and is gonna become a Category 5 hurricane or a super Cyclone, which ever you like it. In a few hours, even as we write this. And that it is going to stay a super cyclone for another 3 days, till January 18, 2015.The JTWC says Bansi has an eye of 85 kilometers. Translate that as big, big trouble for Rodrigues Island. At its peak, the JTWC foretells, Bansi is gonna have howling winds of 270 kph, gusting up to 320 kph. Nature at its nastiest. Folks in Rodrigues: Please take all precautions and take care. We would like to add here that we do not support this prediction. We think the winds will be in the range of 100 kph to 140 kph. It depends on which quadrant of the cyclone passes through Rodrigues. Some are more windier than others. The nightmare prediction from JTWC should be taken with a pinch of salt.
1030 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015
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| 0900 HRS, GMT, JAN 15, 2015 JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE BANSI. JTWC BELIEVES BANSI IS GOING TO TURN INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN |
EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.
We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015
CYCLONE BANSI CURRENT STATUS: Position: 18.34*South, 61.19*East. 278 kilometers WNW of Rorigues Island. Sustained Wind Speed: 120 kph, gusts 160 kph.
1130 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015
1130 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015
THE WINDS in Mauritius have already started picking up. Not because Bansi is moving but because it is intensifying. The winds will continuously get worse as Bansi slowly approaches and starts intensifying at the same time. The winds will be worst on January 14, 2015 (Wednesday) as the cyclone passes by. They will start tapering off from January 15. Reunion will get off lightly. Mauritius may get winds in excess of 100 kph. Gusting more.
1130 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015
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| XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: JAN 14-15, 2015. CYCLONE BANSI PASSES MAURITIUS |
POSITION AT 1100 HRS GMT, JANUARY 11, 2015: 16.95*S, 54.34*E. About 600 kilometers NNE of Reunion. It has moved in a ENE (East-North-East) direction. See the LIVE Map
1100 HRS GMT, January 11, 2015
According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. One thing both the models agree on is that this cyclone is going to intensify very rapidly in the next 48 hours. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.
January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT
The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI.
January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT
NOAA says the depression 92S in SW Indian Ocean has intensified into a tropical cyclone with winds of 35 knots (65 kph). It calls it TC '5S'. When will the Met folks at RSMC Reunion name it Bansi?
January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT
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| CYCLONE BANSI, 0900 HOURS GMT, JAN 11, 2015 |
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| JANUARY 11, 2015, 0600 HRS GMT, CYCLONE BANSI WATER VAPOR IMAGE |
The European Forecast Model, ECMWF, has bad news. It envisages Bansi intensifying more rapidly even as it passes Mauritius.A central minimum pressure of 941 Mb (And dropping!). This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news. Mauritius and Rodrigues Island will be most affected. Especially Rodrigues.
January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT
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| Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015. |
92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.
January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT
Storm 92S is intensifying. It's central pressure is now slipping below 1000 Mb. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.
January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT
The present position of Mozambique Channel depression (Future Chedza) is 16.75* S, 42.76*E. 500 kilometers SSE of Mozambique City. Winds: 45 kph in the areas north of the storm.
January 10, 2015, 1400 Hours GMT
The present position of Storm 92S (Future Bansi, SW Indian Ocean): 17.20 Degrees South, 53.29 Degrees East. About 500 kilometers north-west of Mauritius and Reunion. Wind speed is 45 kph.Winds in Mauritius now are about 30 kph. Reunion: 16 kph.
January 10, 2015, 1330 Hours, GMT
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| LATEST TRACK FORECAST ACCORDING TO METEO-FRANCE FOR UPCOMING CYCLONE BANSI |
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| TRACK FORECAST FOR BANSI CYCLONE ACCORDING TO VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. THE 'GEM' IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. OTHERS ARE THE NOAA'S GFS AND US NAVY'S NAVGEM |
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| SATELLITE IMAGE OF 92S AT 0300 HRS, JANUARY 11, 2015 |
The European Model has bad news. According to latest forecasts issued, Cyclone Bansi is going to intensify very rapidly after forming. Even when it will be passing over Mascareignes it's central pressure will fall by an astounding 50 Mb in 48 hours! Some very rapid intensification here. Bad news for Mauritius. Later when it leaves Mascareignes, it's central pressure will fall to 907 Mb! Bansi is gonna be a very powerful storm. In the league of cyclones Hondo (2007-8), Edzani (2009-10) and Bruce (2013-14). They had central minimum pressures of 906, 910 and 912 Mb respectively. They had maximum sustained winds of 215, 220 and 230 kph respectively All these were SW Indian Ocean cyclones
January 10, 2015, 1100 Hours, GMT
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| SATELLITE WATER-VAPOR IMAGE OF 92S TAKEN AT 1200 HRS GMT, JAN 10, 2015 |
Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.
January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT
Tropical Storm CHEDZA will form on January 13, 2015 in the Mozambique Channel. In a day or two after that it will move into central Madagascar. It will not be a big storm.
January 10, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
Another tropical storm is coming to the Philippines. Around January 17, 2015. Typhoon Mekkhala will not be a very powerful storm; nothing like Hagupit. It will strike central Philippines. It might turn out to be even weaker; Just a depression. A big rain-maker.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The European Model predicts Bansi will affect Mauritius more than Reunion. When it passes over the Mascareignes it will not be very powerful. Once it moves into the Indian Ocean it will turn into a very big storm throwing winds of 200 kph. A diameter of about 1200 kilometers.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The NAVGEM Model has a scary prediction. That 'Bansi' is going to take 3-4 days to move past Rodrigues Island. Strengthening all the time. Please take this forecast coming from NAVGEM, with a large pinch of salt.
January 9, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT
The Canadian Model predicts the cyclone Bansi will form very close to Mauritius on January 11, 2015. It forecasts gustier storm in Mauritius than the GFS. The NAVGEM has the worst news. Storm will form on January 11 and Mascareignes (Worst affected: Rodrigues Island) will face 150+ kph winds. The US Navy Model goes onto say Bansi will turn later into a 936 Mb super cyclone.(Away from the Mascareignes).
January 9, 2015 0600 Hours GMT
GFS predicts a central pressure of 975 Mb. So-so storm. About 140 kph sustained winds. Special GFS says Bansi will intensify into a cyclone on January 13, after it starts leaving Mascareignes waters.
January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT
SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on January 13, 2015.
January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT
Latest forecasts say the storm will move through Rodrigues as it keeps intensifying. The effect on Mauritius and Reunion will be comparatively less. It will turn into a very big storm after it moves away south from Mascareignes.
January 8, 2015, 1200 Hours GMT
NAVGEM envisages Bansi turning into something close to a super cyclone. Thanks heavens it will intensify to a central pressure of 929 mb (Wow!) only after it leaves the Mascareignes far behind. Phew!
January 8, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT
Latest reliable forecasts say the upcoming cyclone will be a bigger threat to Rodrigues than Mauritius and Reunion. The storm will begin to form in the next 48 hours.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
The Canadian Model says Bansi will form tomorrow (January 9, 2015) morning (Mauritius Time). It has a scary story for Philippines. A massive typhoon will hit the country on January 16, 2015. Though other major models say it will be just a depression hitting central Philippines.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
The US Navy's NAVGEM has a terrifying prediction. That Bansi will be a massive storm with central pressure of 956 mb and winds of 170+ kph. It will hit Rodrigues Island head-on.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
Another possibility that the present low NW of Mauritius moves east in the next 4-5 days and THEN intensify into a storm. The storm in the Mozambique Channel forms first around January 12, 2015. If this happens the Mozambique Channel storm will become 'Bansi' and the 'Mauritius' storm becomes Chedza. In this scenario Chedza will affect the Rodrigues Island more than Mauritius and Reunion.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.
January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT
Both the GFS and Special GFS foretell a tropical storm near Papua New Guinea in a day or two. The former says it will move south into the Pacific, the latter predicts it will hit Queensland on January 13, 2015. CMC and NAVGEM support the formation of the cyclone on January 9.
January 7, 2015, 0500 Hours, GMT
Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. In sharp contrast Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015. See the storm forming and grow. LIVE.
January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT
Philippines is for another either a wet depression or a tropical storm around January 16, 2015.
January 7, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
It is possible that the present low near Kimberley, NW Australia may not intensify into a cyclone but move inland just as a low pressure area. A rain-maker, nothing else. The NAVGEM, in contrast, says a big cyclone will form. The European model heartily agrees.
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The European Model (Followed by Meteo France) says a low will develop near Mauritius tomorrow which will intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi on January 11-12. The CMC is bullish on Bansi. Expects it to form on January 9. It envisages a powerful storm with 150 kph winds but the horror story (coming from CMC) should be taken with a pinch of salt. The NAVGEM foresees two cyclones forming in the next 4 days. Bansi in the Mozambique Channel day after tomorrow and Chedza near Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Whew!
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The latest GFS forecast hints at the cyclone in the SW Indian Ocean developing near the coast of SE Madagascar on January 12, 2015, and then moving in a SW direction, thus not affecting the Mascareignes.
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The Canadian model CMC has a horrifying prediction for the folks in the Mascareignes. It says the upcoming cyclone is going to be a large diameter storm. About 300-350 kilometres! Even worse follows. The storm is going to move over the area very slowly. That means real bad news.
January 6, 2015. 1200 Hours GMT
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