We stand by our earlier forecast of monsoons hitting Kerala by May 23-24. But after that the monsoon winds will suddenly lose steam. By June 1, 2015, they will have reached southern Maharashtra, after covering Kerala and Karnataka. Mumbai will have to wait.
On the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon, by June 1, the entire Indian north-eastern states, Bangladesh and parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra will be covered.
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The South West Monsoon this year seems to be galloping. Two days back it entered the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. And if forecasts are to be believed it will hit Kerala by May 23, 2015. It is already nudging southern Sri Lanka.
Please note that we are NOT taking into consideration the parameters that the Indian Meteorological Department uses. The IMD uses a subjective method described in this article. (Further information can be had in this article by Indian Institute Of Tropical Meteorology).We base our prediction on the upper air winds (above 12 kilometers). Monsoons is just not rains and dark clouds. The monsoon system extends high in the atmosphere. When the direction of these high air winds change on a long range basis, we can say with surety that monsoons are coming.
Seeing these high air winds, we see them reaching Kerala on around May 23, Mumbai by May 29 and the Indian north east and eastern Indian by the end of the month. Way before the normal onset of monsoons. We see the monsoons touching eastern Gujarat by June 2, 2015!
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| MONSOON TODAY NOW. REACHED ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS, TOUCHING SOUTHERN SRI LANKA |
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| MAY 23, 2015. MONSOONS HIT KERALA |
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