XWF WEATHER Long Range Forecast: Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone In June 2017

APRIL 14, 2017

The US Climate Prediction Center has hinted strongly at the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea in early June this year. 

The CPC's CFS (Coupled Forecast System) model has been consistently showing a tropical depression/cyclone forming in the Arabian Sea in June. Recent data indicate a tropical cyclone taking shape off the Kerala coast around June 6-7, which intensifies and goes on to make landfall into Oman on June 14, 2017.

Please keep in mind that the CFS is a climate forecast model, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. So the accuracy about the track and date of the expected storm is bound to be comparatively less. But this model, as we have observed now and again, has been good at giving out possibilies of tropical storm formation.

We can say this with some certainty that a tropical storm is imminent in the Arabian Sea this June. When it forms is to be seen. Where it goes, Gujarat, Sindh or Oman, is uncertain at this stage.

There is an equally good possibility that a tropical cyclone may form the in the Bay of Bengal around June 25, 2017. The onset of monsoon over India is going to be early and strong according to the American climate forecast agency.

Renowned Indian meteorologist PV Joseph, a former director of Indian Meteorological Department, too says the monsoon will hit India earlier in 2017 around May 24.

Studying the data from the CFS model in the last few days, one sees the South West monsoon becoming very active  since the start of June, 2017, in the Arabian Sea. A couple of rain bearing systems will push monsoons onto the Indian west coast, including Gujarat and Sindh by June 10. So the start of the monsoon this year is going to be timely and vigorous.

Canadian model predicts good Indian monsoon rains in July

JULY 2, 2016

The latest monthly rainfall forecast by the Canadian CANSIPS seasonal model for July 2016 for India is out. It basically says the same thing as it said in June. That good monsoon rains are expected in northern, western and southern parts of the country.

Only the eastern states will have deficient below average rains. Karnataka Gujarat and Rayalseema will receive heavy precipitation in July. Pakistan, Oman and UAE will receive above average precipitation. Bangladesh will remain relatively dry.

This is largely corroborated by NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast System) weekly forecast for July. It predicts a deluge in western India, especially in Gujarat between July 2-9. We have already predicted in an earlier post that a low pressure area may bring flooding rainfall to Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat around July 8, 2016.

Worryingly the CFS forecasts very poor precipitation throughout India in the last fortnight of the month.

Water scarce Gujarat is pinning its hopes on the July 8 low pressure system.

Monsoons To Hit South Asia Early This Year (2015)

Yesterday we had predicted a powerful cyclone hitting western India (Gujarat) in the first week of June 2015, based on forecast based on NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast Model).

Studying the model forecast further we noticed that the monsoons are likely to touch India much earlier than normal. The normal date of onset of monsoons in Kerala is June 1.

Much to our astonishment we discovered that the CFS Model predicts the monsoon system entering the Arabian Sea about 15 days earlier around May 15, 2015. Please see the CFS precipitation maps below. Each map spans the total rainfall in a 5 days period.

Please note that the CFS forecasts are not accurate.

MAY 7- MAY 11: THE MONSOONS ARE STRENGTHENING IN SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL

MAY 12- MAY 16: HEAVY MONSOON RAINS NEAR SOUTH SRI LANKA.

MAY 17- MAY 21: THE RAINS HAVE SPREAD TO SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND MALDIVES.

MAY 22- MAY 26: THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. RAINS IN KERALA. THE BAY OF BENGAL BRANCH OF THE MONSOONS MOVE INTO INDIAN NORTH EAST, BANGLADESH AND NORTH BENGAL.

MAY 27- MAY 31: THE MONSOONS SPREAD OUT INTO SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA. A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KERALA COAST.

JUNE 1- JUNE 6: THE RAIN SYSTEM SPREADS TOWARDS OMAN. THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR KERALA PERSISTS.

JUNE 6- JUNE 10: HEAVY RAINS IN KERALA. THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO A CYCLONE AND HEADS TOWARDS GUJARAT.

CFS (Climate Forecast System) Predicts An Arabian Sea Cyclone in June 2015

CFS (Climate Forecast System) has been developed to give long range forecasts for two months and more by the US NOAA.

Perusing the forecast data by the CFS Model one sees a powerful cyclone developing in southern Arabian Sea in the first week of June 2015. The cyclone is expected to move towards the coast of Oman and move along it some few hundred kilometers away

By June 10, 2015, the cyclone will curve north-eastward and hit the coast of Saurashtra between Porbandar and Dwarka and move north into western Kachch and then into Pakistan's Sindh Province

Let us make one thing very clear. The CFS Model is not very reliable. But it does give useful indications. In fact even the reliable GFS and ECMWF forecasts beyond ten days should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

But the cyclone season in the north Indian Ocean is about to begin. The sea temperatures are already over the cut-off point of 26.5 degrees C. The temperature required to fuel a tropical cyclone.

In 2014, the North Indian Ocean had kick-started by Cyclone Mahasen that had formed in the first half of May and gone on to hit Bangladesh.

We will keep a close watch and give you latest updates on the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing either in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal this May-June, which is the time storms develop.