Canadian model predicts good Indian monsoon rains in July

JULY 2, 2016

The latest monthly rainfall forecast by the Canadian CANSIPS seasonal model for July 2016 for India is out. It basically says the same thing as it said in June. That good monsoon rains are expected in northern, western and southern parts of the country.

Only the eastern states will have deficient below average rains. Karnataka Gujarat and Rayalseema will receive heavy precipitation in July. Pakistan, Oman and UAE will receive above average precipitation. Bangladesh will remain relatively dry.

This is largely corroborated by NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast System) weekly forecast for July. It predicts a deluge in western India, especially in Gujarat between July 2-9. We have already predicted in an earlier post that a low pressure area may bring flooding rainfall to Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat around July 8, 2016.

Worryingly the CFS forecasts very poor precipitation throughout India in the last fortnight of the month.

Water scarce Gujarat is pinning its hopes on the July 8 low pressure system.

CFS (Climate Forecast System) Predicts An Arabian Sea Cyclone in June 2015

CFS (Climate Forecast System) has been developed to give long range forecasts for two months and more by the US NOAA.

Perusing the forecast data by the CFS Model one sees a powerful cyclone developing in southern Arabian Sea in the first week of June 2015. The cyclone is expected to move towards the coast of Oman and move along it some few hundred kilometers away

By June 10, 2015, the cyclone will curve north-eastward and hit the coast of Saurashtra between Porbandar and Dwarka and move north into western Kachch and then into Pakistan's Sindh Province

Let us make one thing very clear. The CFS Model is not very reliable. But it does give useful indications. In fact even the reliable GFS and ECMWF forecasts beyond ten days should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

But the cyclone season in the north Indian Ocean is about to begin. The sea temperatures are already over the cut-off point of 26.5 degrees C. The temperature required to fuel a tropical cyclone.

In 2014, the North Indian Ocean had kick-started by Cyclone Mahasen that had formed in the first half of May and gone on to hit Bangladesh.

We will keep a close watch and give you latest updates on the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing either in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal this May-June, which is the time storms develop.