JULY 2, 2016
The latest monthly rainfall forecast by the Canadian CANSIPS seasonal model for July 2016 for India is out. It basically says the same thing as it said in June. That good monsoon rains are expected in northern, western and southern parts of the country.
Only the eastern states will have deficient below average rains. Karnataka Gujarat and Rayalseema will receive heavy precipitation in July. Pakistan, Oman and UAE will receive above average precipitation. Bangladesh will remain relatively dry.
This is largely corroborated by NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast System) weekly forecast for July. It predicts a deluge in western India, especially in Gujarat between July 2-9. We have already predicted in an earlier post that a low pressure area may bring flooding rainfall to Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat around July 8, 2016.
Worryingly the CFS forecasts very poor precipitation throughout India in the last fortnight of the month.
Water scarce Gujarat is pinning its hopes on the July 8 low pressure system.
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