Yesterday we had predicted a powerful cyclone hitting western India (Gujarat) in the first week of June 2015, based on forecast based on NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast Model).
Studying the model forecast further we noticed that the monsoons are likely to touch India much earlier than normal. The normal date of onset of monsoons in Kerala is June 1.
Much to our astonishment we discovered that the CFS Model predicts the monsoon system entering the Arabian Sea about 15 days earlier around May 15, 2015. Please see the CFS precipitation maps below. Each map spans the total rainfall in a 5 days period.
Please note that the CFS forecasts are not accurate.
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| MAY 7- MAY 11: THE MONSOONS ARE STRENGTHENING IN SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL |
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| MAY 12- MAY 16: HEAVY MONSOON RAINS NEAR SOUTH SRI LANKA. |
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| MAY 17- MAY 21: THE RAINS HAVE SPREAD TO SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND MALDIVES. |
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| MAY 22- MAY 26: THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. RAINS IN KERALA. THE BAY OF BENGAL BRANCH OF THE MONSOONS MOVE INTO INDIAN NORTH EAST, BANGLADESH AND NORTH BENGAL. |
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| MAY 27- MAY 31: THE MONSOONS SPREAD OUT INTO SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA. A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KERALA COAST. |
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| JUNE 1- JUNE 6: THE RAIN SYSTEM SPREADS TOWARDS OMAN. THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR KERALA PERSISTS. |
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| JUNE 6- JUNE 10: HEAVY RAINS IN KERALA. THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO A CYCLONE AND HEADS TOWARDS GUJARAT. |
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