JUNE 14, 2017, WEDNESDAY
Forecasting weather beyond 5 days is dangerous, uncertain business. But forecast models are predicting heavy showers in Mumbai around June 20-21, so we mention it. Please keep in mind that since this scenario includes a time frame of more than 7 days, we cannot be sure. But we mention it nevertheless.
According to some forecast models, there is a 100% possibility of precipitation in Mumbai on June 20, 95% in the 3-4 days after that. That looks like a persistent rain system visiting the city. It may receive 2-3 inches of rainfall on June 20-21.
Not only that, nearby Surat in Gujarat has a 95% chance on June 21 (1 inch) Wednesday. Figures for some more cities.... Rainfall possibility on June 21 in Ahmedabad 55%, Rajkot 70%, Jamnagar 65%, Bhuj 35%, Vadodara 55%, Karachi in Sindh, Pakistan 60%.
Seeing these figures it looks like a rain system hitting Mumbai on June 20, and then some showers spilling over into neighboring Gujarat.
If this happens, it will be welcome news to the rain-starved region.
There is some heartening news. The European model expects the rain, storm maker Madden Julian Oscillation to enter the western Indian Ocean around June 16. Read that as possibly in the Arabian Sea.
For the monsoon to progress the wind shear should be high. In this map we see shear is low in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Hence chances of monsoon advancing is low now. Once that changes things will change.
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