Major reliable computer forecast models are predicting very heavy rains in Mumbai and South Gujarat on June 23, 2015.
The reasons lie in the expected resurgence of the monsoons in the next 48 hours. We have talked about this in an earlier article.
As we said earlier the monsoons are really going to rev up, shorn of the Ashobaa baggage, in the next two days.
A start has been made with the increased monsoon activity off the Andhra coast in the Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation has already formed in the sea which is going to intensify into a low pressure area or a depression by June 20, 2015.
And in the Arabian Sea too things are going to happen in the next two days. A low pressure trough is taking shape presently. In the next few days this trough will become well marked and drift towards the Indian coast. By June 20-21, it might turn into a low pressure area.
About the Bay of Bengal expected system there is some disagreement as to its track. One forecast says it will move into Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and then swing north towards Uttar Pradesh. Another forecast predicts it will move west and reach western Maharashtra and Mumbai on June 23, 2015.
If this happens this Bay of Bengal system will collide headlong into the Arabian Sea low hovering near the Mumbai coast. The result? A deluge. Flooding rains in Mumbai and south Gujarat on June 23 onwards.
Even if the Bay of Bengal system moves to north India, very heavy rains are likely in Mumbai on June 23, 2015, as a result of the Arabian Sea low pressure area.
Anyway one looks at it, the conclusion is inescapable.
Very heavy rains in Mumbai On June 23, 2015.
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| THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI ON JUNE 23, 2015 |
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