Monsoon 2016 Update: Arabian Sea Stream Will Stall Till June 18

JUNE 10, 2016

Though the monsoon has entered northern Karnataka, central Arabian Sea, Rayalseema and some parts of the Bay of Bengal, things will get stuck on the Arabian Sea side.

Rains will continue in Goa, Karnataka with showers in Konkan but for the next week the monsoon will rest on the west coast. It is expected to wake up and get vigorous only on June 18, 2016. That is what the NOAA forecast data says. 

After that it will enter Maharashtra, Mumbai with a bang. By June 22 it will nudging Gujarat. But till then relative peace and calm. 

The action will be seen on the Bay of Bengal side of the monsoon. A low pressure area has pushed into Myanmar and soon by June 12 it will start drenching the Indian north eastern states.

There is going to be no lull, no rest for this stream of the monsoon. It is going to go hammer and tongs in the coming days, enter north east India soon and hit Kolkata by June 17.

NOAA data says by the time the Arabian Sea branch rejuvenates on June 18, the Bay of Bengal monsoon will be racing through eastern India. By June 23 it might be knocking on the doors of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

The rain forecast map below issued by NOAA's GFS model shows the TOTAL RAINFALL till June 26, 2016 (in inches). It shows only western Rajasthan and some parts of Sindh, Balochistan which remain dry. All other parts of India and Pakistan will see rains, light or heavy. Rains have reached southern Oman too, with heavy falls near Salalah.

Monsoon Update: Expected Arabian Sea Rain System May Hit Mumbai June 23, 2015

ARABIAN SEA LOW: MODELS GIVE COFUSING SIGNALS

The expected path of the upcoming Arabian Sea low has changed. Now it may go to Mumbai on June 23, 2015.

The low will start off as a circulation and organize iinto a low by Sunday near the Saurashtra coast off Dwarka.

Another model predicts it will remain a trough not a low pressure area.

Models presently agree it will move to the Indian west coast by June 23, 2015.

But one wonders. The forecast models are saying different things every day. Our guess is it could go anywhere. Sindh. Gujarat. Or Maharashtra.

But we can say two things with certainty.

One. The Arabian Sea is going to turn very stormy in the coming days.

Second. The expected system will be a big rain maker. Where ever it will go, we are looking at a deluge.

Monsoon is complex. Reputed sites like AccuWeather and Wunderground rarely predict right if it is going to rain in your city today or not.

Monsoon 2015 Update: Weak June, Good July Rainfall Expected

NOAAs CFS (Climate Forecast System) predicts poor monsoon rainfall in June in the Indian subcontinent. July and August will bring good rains.

The monsoons are knocking at Kerala's doors. But the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is likely to remain weak in the coming days.

The IMD considers a certain amount of rainfall to declare the onset of monsoon. That is why it says it will come to Kerala around May 30. Because around that time considerable rainfall is forecasted for the state.

If we do not take the rains into account, monsoons have already reached the state. The monsoons winds reaching up to 14 kilometers in the atmosphere are already in place. They have already reached Kerala, Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra and Karnataka.

But the Arabian Sea monsoons will remain weak in the coming 10 days. It is not likely to move north in the coming days. In contrast the Bay of Bengal monsoon stream is vigorous and will move north into West Bengal and Bihar around June 4, 2015.

SCENARIO ON JUNE 4, 2015. THE MAP SHOWS  A VIGOROUS  BAY OF BENGAL MONSOON STREAM. THE ACTIVITY OVER ARABIAN SEA IS FEEBLE.

CFS MONTHLY MONSOON FORECAST

The American NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecasts poor monsoon rains in June for India. July and August are likely to be above average rain fall months.

Given below are rainfall forecast maps for June-September. Please note the maps show the anomaly (below average, above average) in inches for each month.

One fact stands out very clearly. Average or below average rainfall is expected in north Indian states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana) and Rajasthan this monsoon.

The CFS forecasts are seasonal long range forecasts. They give a good indication of the trends. We will keep you informed of any changes in the CFS forecast for monsoon 2015.

THE FORECAST FOR JUNE 2015 VERY POOR RAINS ON THE ARABIAN SEA COASTAL AREAS AND MANY OTHER STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ARE LIKELY ONLY IN NORTH EASTERN INDIA, PARTS OF BANGLADESH, TAMIL NADU AND PARTS OF KERALA AND SOUTHERN ANDHRA.

JULY WILL BE BETTER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS IN GUJARAT, MADHYA PRADESH, MAHARASHRA, ANDHRA, ODISHA, WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH AND PARTS OF BIHAR.

AUGUST WILL BRING GOOD RAINS TO SAURASHTRA, MAHARASHTRA, ODISHA, ANDHRA, JHARKHAND, WEST BENGAL.

SEPTEMBER WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ONLY IN PARTS ODISHA, MADHYA PRADESH AND NORTH EAST INDIAN STATES

JMA (JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY) SEASONAL FORECAST PAINTS DISMAL MONSOON 2015 PICTURE

The JMA in its three month forecast issued in May predicts a very gloomy picture for Indian monsoons in 2015. It says in June-July-August rainfall is going to below normal in almost all of India, except for the states of Odisha, West Bengal and northern Andhra where there will be slightly above average rainfall. SEE FORECAST MAP BELOW

THREE MONTH RAINFALL FORECAST (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST)  MONSOON 2015. JMA PREDICTS BELOW AVERAGE RAINS IN ALMOST ALL OF INDIA