Rains Coming To Northern Oman?

JUNE 24, 2017, SATURDAY 

There is a good chance of rains arriving in northern Oman on June 30, 2017. The reason? A cyclonic circulation that is expected to form off the Saurashtra coast in India in the next 48-72 hours. Though there is also the possibility of the system forming around June 30, not June 27-28.

The track of the expected rainmaker system remains unclear at present. The European model ECMWF predicts it will move onto Sindh in southern Pakistan by June 30 bringing flooding rains to coastal areas of the country.

Other equally reliable models foretell that it will weaken a little and drift west towards northern Oman. If this happens expect showers to start in the arid country from June 30. There might be showers in Muscat too if the system sustains itself.

American agency Climate Prediction Center's rainfall forecast June 24-30.

It expects monsoon to cover most of India by July 7. Interestingly it also predicts very heavy rainfall in dry Kutch region in Gujarat and parts of Rajasthan in early July.

Torrential Rains In Mumbai Till June 17? Or From June 17?

JUNE 11, 2017, SUNDAY 

The deluge in Mumbai will start from Monday night. And it will go on for full 5 days with little breaks in between. It is time to ring alarm bells in the mega city. Forecast models predict relentless rains in the city. Flooding is inevitable.

It will start from Konkan and then spread to the city. Parts of south Gujarat, particularly Vapi, Valsad too will face heavy rains on June 14-15. 

We base this prediction of heavy rains in Mumbai mainly on what the European model ECMWF is saying. Other models are not so sure.

According to these models it will rain in Mumbai only for 2 days, today and tomorrow. The real deluge will start only from June 17, Saturday.

Meanwhile as we said earlier, the Bay of Bengal low pressure system is preparing to move into Bangladesh. Heavy rains possible in parts of the country and Indian North Eastern states. Then monsoon will arrive in north Bengal. But the system will lose steam and the rains will move no further. That is into Bihar, Jharkhand.

The monsoon on the Arabian Sea side will subside too around June 17-18, after hammering Mumbai relentlessly for 5 days. The net result of all these activities? Monsoon will move into Konkan, Mumbai, parts of South Gujarat, Rayalseema, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Indian NE states.

After that monsoon will go into hibernation. When will it wake up again? Hard to say now as no signs of a revival are in sight.

Disappointingly for folks in Gujarat, Sindh, and Oman, the possibility of the expected cyclonic circulation off Saurashtra coast around June 14 is receding. In short, no low pressure system seems likely in Arabian Sea for now.

Bay Of Bengal 'Low' To Push Monsoon Into Eastern, Central India

JUNE 6, 2017, TUESDAY

The expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area is going to act as an engine that will pull monsoon along with it into eastern and central India by June 15, 2015. In fact, this 'low' will be more of a depression which will dump huge amounts of rain wherever it goes.

This 'low' will start off as an innocuous cyclonic circulation off the Andhra coast on June 9. It will move close to the Visakhapatnam coast and move along the coastline, intensifying all the time. On June 12 it will move into Gangetic West Bengal, then Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh. Then jerk off southward into north-western Madhya Pradesh by June 15.

So this little guy is going to travel a long way in a week and push monsoon into the Indian heartland! Hardworking fellow!

In contrast the Arabian Sea will be lazier. No big low pressure systems. But the rains will reach Goa by June 9. After that the next target will be Konkan. Lots of rain in the belt from June 10.

Things will warm up with an upper air cyclonic circulation forming off the Saurashtra coast on June 10-11. This will be small compared to the much stronger Bay of Bengal 'low' hovering near the Bengal-Odisha coast then.

But it will perk things up. It may push rains into Mumbai by June 12 and may be into parts of Saurashtra, South Gujarat by June 13. It is difficult to say now for sure. It all depends on how the circulation moves. Since it is going to rain heavily and continuously in Konkan, Mumbai after June 10-11 an earlier declaration of monsoon in the mega city is possible.

Early Arabian Sea Monsoon Rains May Drift To Oman

MAY 9, 2017, TUESDAY

Hopes of an early arrival of southwest monsoon this year may be belied. Latest forecast by the sensitive CFS model says it will hit Kerala in early June. Earlier expectations that it may come by May end are dissipating as atmospheric conditions have changed in the last fortnight.

But some predictions remain. The Arabian Sea will go into turbo mode as soon as June sets in. But the scene of action, the ground zero so to speak has changed from the coast near Kerala to south western part of the sea, nearer to Oman.

As May ends the beginning of June will see that portion of the sea turn tumultuous. It will churn out many clusters of powerful thunderstorms powered by the approaching monsoon. From that area of turmoil will emerge one or two tropical depressions/cyclones. These are likely to move to either Oman or Balochistan.

Since this initial burst of monsoon energy will be diverted towards Oman by June 10-12, 2017, the onset of rains on Indian west coast will be delayed. Monsoon may reach Mumbai by June 15-20. The onset over Gujarat may have to wait till June 25.

Though there will be very heavy precipitation in Kerala and Karnataka in early June.

We have wait and see if the expected Arabian Sea storm in early June does go to Oman, or will it change course and steer to Sindh/Gujarat.

It will all start here after May 23-24, 2017. The monsoon will slowly build up off the Somalia coast in the form of violent thunderstorms and torrential downpour in the sea. This will slowly move towards the Indian coast in the next 10 days after that, culminating in a Arabian Sea storm around June 10.

Unlike in 2016, the Bay of Bengal stream of monsoon will come to life almost 10 days after the Arabian Sea springs into action, after June 10, 2017.