Torrential Rains In Mumbai Till June 17? Or From June 17?

JUNE 11, 2017, SUNDAY 

The deluge in Mumbai will start from Monday night. And it will go on for full 5 days with little breaks in between. It is time to ring alarm bells in the mega city. Forecast models predict relentless rains in the city. Flooding is inevitable.

It will start from Konkan and then spread to the city. Parts of south Gujarat, particularly Vapi, Valsad too will face heavy rains on June 14-15. 

We base this prediction of heavy rains in Mumbai mainly on what the European model ECMWF is saying. Other models are not so sure.

According to these models it will rain in Mumbai only for 2 days, today and tomorrow. The real deluge will start only from June 17, Saturday.

Meanwhile as we said earlier, the Bay of Bengal low pressure system is preparing to move into Bangladesh. Heavy rains possible in parts of the country and Indian North Eastern states. Then monsoon will arrive in north Bengal. But the system will lose steam and the rains will move no further. That is into Bihar, Jharkhand.

The monsoon on the Arabian Sea side will subside too around June 17-18, after hammering Mumbai relentlessly for 5 days. The net result of all these activities? Monsoon will move into Konkan, Mumbai, parts of South Gujarat, Rayalseema, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Indian NE states.

After that monsoon will go into hibernation. When will it wake up again? Hard to say now as no signs of a revival are in sight.

Disappointingly for folks in Gujarat, Sindh, and Oman, the possibility of the expected cyclonic circulation off Saurashtra coast around June 14 is receding. In short, no low pressure system seems likely in Arabian Sea for now.

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