Monsoon Losing Momentum, Revival Not Likely Soon

JUNE 12, 2017, MONDAY 

Monsoon has lost steam. No doubt about that. The expected deluge in Mumbai did not happen. Despite the optimism by the Indian Meteorological Department that it will advance into north Konkan and some parts of Maharashtra, one has doubts. If ever the Mumbai debut does happen in the next 2-3 days it will be a tame affair. Or it might not happen now.

Forecast models are predicting heavy rains in Mumbai from June 18. We have to wait and see. Meanwhile good pre-monsoon rains will occur in all regions of Maharashtra in the coming days. That includes Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra.

The Bay of Bengal depression entered Bangladesh and will bring heavy rains to the country and the already saturated North Eastern states of India. This system has pushed monsoon into these areas but any further advance into Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh seems unlikely. Though the European model predicts good rains in these states in the coming days.

What about Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh? They will have to wait patiently.

In conclusion, the monsoon has disappointed us. The Arabian Sea stream has turned weak after hitting Goa. The Bay of Bengal is flooding those areas which have already received good rains while Bihar, Jharkhand wait.

One waits impatiently for a June 18 revival of rains in Mumbai. History has shown that only after Mumbai receives a drenching that monsoon spreads into rest of India.

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