The expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area is going to act as an engine that will pull monsoon along with it into eastern and central India by June 15, 2015. In fact, this 'low' will be more of a depression which will dump huge amounts of rain wherever it goes.
This 'low' will start off as an innocuous cyclonic circulation off the Andhra coast on June 9. It will move close to the Visakhapatnam coast and move along the coastline, intensifying all the time. On June 12 it will move into Gangetic West Bengal, then Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh. Then jerk off southward into north-western Madhya Pradesh by June 15.
So this little guy is going to travel a long way in a week and push monsoon into the Indian heartland! Hardworking fellow!
In contrast the Arabian Sea will be lazier. No big low pressure systems. But the rains will reach Goa by June 9. After that the next target will be Konkan. Lots of rain in the belt from June 10.
Things will warm up with an upper air cyclonic circulation forming off the Saurashtra coast on June 10-11. This will be small compared to the much stronger Bay of Bengal 'low' hovering near the Bengal-Odisha coast then.
But it will perk things up. It may push rains into Mumbai by June 12 and may be into parts of Saurashtra, South Gujarat by June 13. It is difficult to say now for sure. It all depends on how the circulation moves. Since it is going to rain heavily and continuously in Konkan, Mumbai after June 10-11 an earlier declaration of monsoon in the mega city is possible.
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